Tennis · resolved market
Set Handicap: Sabalenka (-1.5) vs Ostapenko (+1.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x423ebf9a2595060df9f71c759010b7b91c3d13eb09a7554c33fc8e0dcd82b9ef
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Sabalenkaof Sabalenka, Ostapenko
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Tennisevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $9,393
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $13,182
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $9,393 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 36 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tennis is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Tennis | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x5108…29cbbacked Sabalenka | 55c | 2,733$1,500 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,233.38 | 271 | 51.3%139 W · 132 L | -9.4wins | -0.03per pick | 55cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa8e0…ad50backed Ostapenko | 48c | 1,386$665 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$665.24 | 36 | 55.6%20 W · 16 L | +1.7wins | +0.05per pick | 51cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9c76…c926backed Ostapenko | 45c | 1,330$598 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$598.43 | 4,076 | 39.7%1,620 W · 2,456 L | +93.7wins | +0.02per pick | 37cpaid | +7.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x99f0…9495backed Ostapenko | 46c | 609.51$278 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$277.6 | 2,174 | 36.9%802 W · 1,372 L | +39.5wins | +0.02per pick | 35cpaid | +6.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7547…d158backed Ostapenko | 46c | 599.99$276 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$275.72 | 7,049 | 39.7%2,795 W · 4,254 L | -20.5wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc85f…15f8backed Sabalenka | 52c | 519.23$270 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$249.23 | 216 | 55.6%120 W · 96 L | +4.0wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8499…950dbacked Sabalenka | 52c | 384.62$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$184.62 | 130 | 43.1%56 W · 74 L | -7.4wins | -0.06per pick | 49cpaid | -10.9%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x246d…c74dbacked Sabalenka | 52c | 376.92$196 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$180.92 | 180 | 53.9%97 W · 83 L | -4.4wins | -0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6ca6…4b74backed Ostapenko | 45c | 205.87$93 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$92.64 | 444 | 42.3%188 W · 256 L | +14.5wins | +0.03per pick | 39cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbd01…73a5backed Ostapenko | 50c | 200$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 70 | 54.3%38 W · 32 L | +1.0wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd423…0dacbacked Ostapenko | 50c | 200$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 40 | 32.5%13 W · 27 L | -3.4wins | -0.08per pick | 41cpaid | -31.3%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb3bd…6dddbacked Sabalenka | 50c | 200$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$100 | 40 | 47.5%19 W · 21 L | +2.8wins | +0.07per pick | 40cpaid | +9.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7a5d…54dbbacked Sabalenka | 56c | 180.78$101 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$80.01 | 2,417 | 50.7%1,226 W · 1,191 L | +78.7wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x076d…8d4cbacked Sabalenka | 51c | 139.98$72 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$68.19 | 4,241 | 52.6%2,232 W · 2,009 L | +65.0wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xed0d…bc18backed Sabalenka | 54c | 111.11$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.11 | 76 | 38.2%29 W · 47 L | +0.8wins | +0.01per pick | 37cpaid | +6.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd306…463dbacked Sabalenka | 57c | 104.55$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.55 | 76 | 60.5%46 W · 30 L | -3.8wins | -0.05per pick | 66cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5b62…d87fbacked Ostapenko | 48c | 101.92$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.92 | 1,510 | 37.7%569 W · 941 L | +24.5wins | +0.02per pick | 36cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xeee6…cbfebacked Sabalenka | 52c | 100$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48 | 79 | 55.7%44 W · 35 L | +1.9wins | +0.02per pick | 53cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x47f6…b051backed Ostapenko | 49c | 100$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49 | 416 | 44.5%185 W · 231 L | -1.0wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | +11.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3e04…564dbacked Sabalenka | 50c | 67.56$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.78 | 172 | 44.8%77 W · 95 L | -4.4wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5210…bd53backed Ostapenko | 46c | 54.19$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.87 | 3,874 | 45.4%1,758 W · 2,116 L | -39.6wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9cdd…3e97backed Ostapenko | 50c | 50$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 28 | 57.1%16 W · 12 L | +1.8wins | +0.06per pick | 51cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5cce…4b52backed Ostapenko | 50c | 50$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 165 | 88.5%146 W · 19 L | +37.7wins | +0.23per pick | 66cpaid | +33%equal weight | 72+0.20 edge/pick |
| 0xa313…eb44backed Sabalenka | 54c | 48$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.08 | 103 | 48.5%50 W · 53 L | +0.8wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8f79…69cabacked Sabalenka | 54c | 46.3$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.3 | 29 | 51.7%15 W · 14 L | +0.8wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xee5a…9f70backed Ostapenko | 46c | 35$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.1 | 356 | 41.3%147 W · 209 L | +9.9wins | +0.03per pick | 39cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5e30…acbfbacked Ostapenko | 44c | 32.8$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.43 | 7,724 | 47.8%3,691 W · 4,033 L | +41.2wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2c97…c20bbacked Ostapenko | 50c | 32$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 158 | 37.3%59 W · 99 L | -19.6wins | -0.12per pick | 50cpaid | -26.3%equal weight | 38-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xa578…6702backed Ostapenko | 48c | 31.92$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.32 | 1,588 | 47%746 W · 842 L | -24.2wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x93dc…3728backed Sabalenka | 52c | 28.85$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.85 | 425 | 45.6%194 W · 231 L | -11.9wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -5.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa8cf…6b0bbacked Sabalenka | 55c | 27.27$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.27 | 29 | 41.4%12 W · 17 L | -2.8wins | -0.10per pick | 51cpaid | -21%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0e50…2609backed Sabalenka | 51c | 25$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.25 | 488 | 42%205 W · 283 L | +10.7wins | +0.02per pick | 40cpaid | +5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc34b…9296backed Ostapenko | 49c | 25$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.25 | 423 | 41.4%175 W · 248 L | +9.1wins | +0.02per pick | 39cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x26c2…0cdfbacked Ostapenko | 43c | 23.26$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 743 | 46.3%344 W · 399 L | -28.9wins | -0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7c82…5a52backed Ostapenko | 50c | 20$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 61 | 42.6%26 W · 35 L | -4.8wins | -0.08per pick | 51cpaid | -21.5%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5c03…31bbbacked Sabalenka | 50c | 20$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10 | 82 | 63.4%52 W · 30 L | +9.8wins | +0.12per pick | 51cpaid | +24%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tennis and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Set Handicap: Sabalenka (-1.5) vs Ostapenko (+1.5)this page
- Aryna Sabalenka vs. Jelena Ostapenko: Total Sets O/U 2.5Under 2.5 won
- Sabalenka vs. Ostapenko: Match O/U 21.5Under won
- Sabalenka vs. Ostapenko: Match O/U 22.5Under won
- Set 1 Winner: Sabalenka vs OstapenkoSabalenka won
- Set 2 Winner: Sabalenka vs OstapenkoSabalenka won
- Wimbledon WTA: Aryna Sabalenka vs Jelena OstapenkoAryna Sabalenka won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.