Tennis · resolved market
ATP Cincinnati - Nardi vs. Shapovalov
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x426050b2c758066e3c9ab98a6bcd390be8387e817ed1352f3e4e0c016c83dad0
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Nardiof Nardi, Shapovalov
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Tennisevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $30,632
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $25,764
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $30,632 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 34 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tennis is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Tennis | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x1d6f…482cbacked Shapovalov | 36c | 5,000$1,800 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,800 | 27 | 51.9%14 W · 13 L | -1.5wins | -0.06per pick | 57cpaid | -19.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9e5c…d8e6backed Nardi | 32c | 4,910$1,548 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,362.14 | 1,090 | 35.9%391 W · 699 L | +16.2wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4e94…6243backed Shapovalov | 41c | 2,968$1,227 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,226.62 | 178 | 33.1%59 W · 119 L | -7.4wins | -0.04per pick | 37cpaid | -32.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x733b…7260backed Shapovalov | 76c | 2,526$1,929 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,929 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -2.5wins | -0.42per pick | 76cpaid | -56.7%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x9fa9…2491backed Nardi | 37c | 1,281$471 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$810.12 | 321 | 41.1%132 W · 189 L | -1.1wins | 0.00per pick | 41cpaid | -19.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb786…b18dbacked Shapovalov | 7c | 1,117$73 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$73.24 | 391 | 44.2%173 W · 218 L | -4.7wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x96df…4caabacked Shapovalov | 51c | 1,072$546 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$545.72 | 260 | 39.2%102 W · 158 L | +3.0wins | +0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5ba6…0f07backed Nardi | 64c | 1,000$640 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$360 | 672 | 49.6%333 W · 339 L | -11.8wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaaef…472abacked Nardi | 23c | 637.33$150 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$487.72 | 23 | 26.1%6 W · 17 L | -2.7wins | -0.12per pick | 38cpaid | -42.7%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe31a…adffbacked Nardi | 25c | 492.31$125 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$367.31 | 252 | 44.4%112 W · 140 L | +2.0wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Shapovalov | 43c | 463.95$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200.44 | 11,666 | 43.4%5,059 W · 6,607 L | +22.2wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -20%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4487…08c6backed Shapovalov | 25c | 313.8$78 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$78.45 | 127 | 37.8%48 W · 79 L | -6.2wins | -0.05per pick | 43cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdb90…1917backed Shapovalov | 75c | 300$225 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$225 | 13 | 46.2%6 W · 7 L | -1.3wins | -0.10per pick | 56cpaid | -13%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xad98…8733backed Shapovalov | 27c | 300$81 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$81 | 40 | 35%14 W · 26 L | +4.3wins | +0.11per pick | 24cpaid | +33.1%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xcef7…e7d7backed Nardi | 42c | 225.24$95 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$130.22 | 18 | 33.3%6 W · 12 L | -2.2wins | -0.12per pick | 46cpaid | -30.9%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2719…28ddbacked Nardi | 31c | 202.93$63 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$140.24 | 20 | 30%6 W · 14 L | -0.9wins | -0.05per pick | 35cpaid | -13.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xca38…460bbacked Shapovalov | 66c | 200$132 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$132 | 183 | 38.8%71 W · 112 L | -5.9wins | -0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -12.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9dd9…08bdbacked Nardi | 73c | 192$140 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.65 | 1,852 | 44.5%825 W · 1,027 L | -20.3wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -18.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdbb9…ed8dbacked Shapovalov | 74c | 188.46$139 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$139.46 | 1,039 | 54.6%567 W · 472 L | +37.6wins | +0.04per pick | 51cpaid | +7.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5652…ff34backed Shapovalov | 56c | 180$101 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100.8 | 121 | 34.7%42 W · 79 L | -5.8wins | -0.05per pick | 40cpaid | -22.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x480d…f219backed Nardi | 58c | 173.28$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$73.28 | 731 | 47.9%350 W · 381 L | -16.9wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x88c4…fbf0backed Nardi | 23c | 164.94$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$127 | 204 | 31.4%64 W · 140 L | +7.7wins | +0.04per pick | 28cpaid | +19.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7580…cb71backed Shapovalov | 14c | 157.55$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.37 | 47 | 51.1%24 W · 23 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe259…b890backed Shapovalov | 52c | 129.18$67 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67.17 | 16 | 37.5%6 W · 10 L | -2.2wins | -0.14per pick | 51cpaid | -36.1%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe233…14a3backed Shapovalov | 77c | 103.85$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80 | 383 | 56.9%218 W · 165 L | -7.4wins | -0.02per pick | 59cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5530…d38dbacked Shapovalov | 19c | 100$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19 | 629 | 52.1%328 W · 301 L | +1.8wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5555…d3d0backed Shapovalov | 14c | 84.86$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.88 | 41 | 51.2%21 W · 20 L | -1.1wins | -0.03per pick | 54cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6466…4633backed Shapovalov | 58c | 65.97$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.26 | 85 | 40%34 W · 51 L | -2.2wins | -0.03per pick | 43cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbe3c…a835backed Nardi | 42c | 60$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.7 | 312 | 55.4%173 W · 139 L | +5.0wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | 0%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x92f7…facbbacked Shapovalov | 50c | 60$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 26 | 38.5%10 W · 16 L | -1.9wins | -0.07per pick | 46cpaid | -18.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xec00…f896backed Shapovalov | 36c | 56.11$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 14 | 42.9%6 W · 8 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -9.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf23a…df6fbacked Shapovalov | 47c | 50$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.5 | 512 | 52.1%267 W · 245 L | -8.9wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x25bf…7a56backed Shapovalov | 77c | 38.96$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 2,339 | 46.6%1,090 W · 1,249 L | +55.7wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc6fb…2b2abacked Shapovalov | 77c | 25.97$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 44 | 75%33 W · 11 L | +5.5wins | +0.12per pick | 63cpaid | +21.7%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tennis and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.