South American Leagues · resolved market
Will CA Unión win on 2025-10-03?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x427ecce256b75d0999b708ec27216201c1d1b06a2f37541abc04acf5b22b59f2
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- South American Leaguesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $10,088
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $9,944
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $10,088 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 32 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in South American Leagues is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in South American Leagues | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x2129…4222backed No | 36c | 5,829$2,093 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,735.5 | 506 | 61.3%310 W · 196 L | +20.8wins | +0.04per pick | 57cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9267…18cdbacked Yes | 65c | 5,483$3,557 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,556.85 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.65per pick | 65cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7430…3af2backed Yes | 61c | 1,056$644 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$644.16 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +48.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed No | 39c | 1,013$395 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$618.24 | 8,107 | 48.7%3,948 W · 4,159 L | +26.8wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x33bc…37dcbacked No | 37c | 1,000$365 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$635 | 94 | 58.5%55 W · 39 L | +8.1wins | +0.09per pick | 50cpaid | +25.9%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xdd8b…63b2backed Yes | 64c | 729.69$467 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$467 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.64per pick | 64cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcb43…3c74backed No | 35c | 499.95$175 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$324.97 | 11 | 90.9%10 W · 1 L | +4.3wins | +0.39per pick | 52cpaid | +82.5%equal weight | 63+0.12 edge/pick |
| 0x68c3…99c4backed Yes | 64c | 468.75$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$300 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.4wins | -0.46per pick | 46cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe83c…5e8fbacked No | 36c | 444.11$162 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$282.19 | 124 | 65.3%81 W · 43 L | +5.2wins | +0.04per pick | 61cpaid | +7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5d03…369abacked No | 36c | 300$108 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$192 | 20 | 60%12 W · 8 L | +1.1wins | +0.06per pick | 54cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x45d1…7017backed No | 35c | 299.94$105 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$194.96 | 100 | 54%54 W · 46 L | +8.6wins | +0.09per pick | 45cpaid | +22.5%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x1eb8…6bbbbacked Yes | 65c | 295.32$192 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$191.96 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.65per pick | 65cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0909…91cabacked Yes | 65c | 203.92$132 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$132 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -1.1wins | -0.19per pick | 52cpaid | -31.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x68b9…052dbacked Yes | 63c | 203.17$128 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$128 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.63per pick | 63cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb06c…6961backed Yes | 63c | 158.73$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.63per pick | 63cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xec73…6af3backed Yes | 65c | 135.38$88 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$88 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.11per pick | 61cpaid | -13.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x347a…83e3backed Yes | 26c | 106.32$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.86 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.7wins | -0.34per pick | 34cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdbf6…513abacked No | 36c | 100$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$64 | 29 | 55.2%16 W · 13 L | +1.3wins | +0.05per pick | 51cpaid | +5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2619…9f4ebacked No | 36c | 68.75$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44 | 29 | 55.2%16 W · 13 L | +1.2wins | +0.04per pick | 51cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8191…8a35backed No | 36c | 66.64$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.65 | 17 | 47.1%8 W · 9 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x908a…ad16backed No | 38c | 62.51$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.68 | 636 | 44.7%284 W · 352 L | -2.0wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | -12.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2cdd…3a5bbacked Yes | 65c | 61.54$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 11 | 54.5%6 W · 5 L | -0.4wins | -0.04per pick | 58cpaid | -18.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc7f7…2abfbacked No | 37c | 51.27$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.51 | 162 | 34.6%56 W · 106 L | +5.2wins | +0.03per pick | 31cpaid | +17.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0362…449ebacked Yes | 64c | 47.03$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 516 | 54.8%283 W · 233 L | +0.9wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb631…d67fbacked Yes | 65c | 40.54$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.35 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.3wins | -0.64per pick | 64cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4fc1…f9e9backed Yes | 65c | 30.77$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | -0.5wins | -0.05per pick | 55cpaid | -4.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x29c5…b378backed Yes | 66c | 30.3$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | -0.4wins | -0.05per pick | 62cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd218…b5c9backed No | 36c | 30$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.1 | 824 | 34.5%284 W · 540 L | -17.8wins | -0.02per pick | 37cpaid | -32%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x30ac…4bdabacked Yes | 65c | 27.15$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.65 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.65per pick | 65cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc48d…8a40backed Yes | 64c | 26.08$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.69 | 18 | 61.1%11 W · 7 L | -1.1wins | -0.06per pick | 67cpaid | -13.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa67e…3528backed Yes | 65c | 22.11$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.37 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.65per pick | 65cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8c57…fca3backed Yes | 65c | 19.48$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.66 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.65per pick | 65cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in South American Leagues and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will CA Unión win on 2025-10-03?this page
- Will CA Aldosivi win on 2025-10-03?Yes won
- Will CA Unión vs. CA Aldosivi end in a draw?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.