MLB · resolved market
NLDS: Padres vs. Dodgers Game 4
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x4285493470df4e89e4cc71e7dc62155c0460548284fcf5283317dff9412f9bec
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Dodgersof Padres, Dodgers
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $37,314
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $38,942
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $37,314 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 53 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xd057…ae9fbacked Padres | 2c | 10,838$167 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$166.84 | 12 | 0%0 W · 12 L | -1.0wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xee5f…9a8bbacked Dodgers | 46c | 7,989$3,677 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,311.21 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -1.8wins | -0.30per pick | 46cpaid | -63.8%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xd028…75f5backed Padres | 57c | 4,109$2,347 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,346.64 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.08per pick | 58cpaid | -15.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4cc3…7552backed Padres | 54c | 3,648$1,970 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,969.72 | 44 | 45.5%20 W · 24 L | -3.4wins | -0.08per pick | 53cpaid | -20.3%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3195…a94fbacked Dodgers | 60c | 1,777$1,066 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$710.89 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.5wins | +0.10per pick | 50cpaid | -4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x47bc…c043backed Padres | 10c | 1,722$178 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$177.56 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -0.8wins | -0.13per pick | 29cpaid | -72.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe83c…5e8fbacked Padres | 54c | 1,340$724 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$723.6 | 733 | 52.4%384 W · 349 L | +12.6wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +4.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2ff0…46e3backed Dodgers | 64c | 1,128$727 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$400.47 | 21 | 71.4%15 W · 6 L | +3.3wins | +0.16per pick | 56cpaid | +20.5%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xb626…e748backed Padres | 55c | 999.99$550 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$549.99 | 14 | 64.3%9 W · 5 L | +1.7wins | +0.12per pick | 52cpaid | +24.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4a64…4430backed Padres | 19c | 946.84$177 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$176.79 | 37 | 43.2%16 W · 21 L | +0.9wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -23.1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1bb4…a9bdbacked Dodgers | 45c | 888.89$400 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$488.89 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x00e2…6b9ebacked Padres | 57c | 567.51$323 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$323.48 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.57per pick | 57cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf374…ce1abacked Dodgers | 43c | 551.59$237 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$314.41 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.5wins | +0.16per pick | 50cpaid | +36%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf930…e346backed Dodgers | 46c | 548.84$250 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$298.84 | 133 | 54.9%73 W · 60 L | +5.8wins | +0.04per pick | 51cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb8e0…d94abacked Dodgers | 43c | 465.12$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$265.12 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +1.1wins | +0.54per pick | 46cpaid | +116.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7034…bcf8backed Padres | 56c | 397.75$223 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$222.74 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +1.2wins | +0.29per pick | 46cpaid | +109%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x348b…2432backed Padres | 33c | 370$121 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$121.3 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.0wins | -0.33per pick | 33cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x675b…822abacked Padres | 57c | 350.88$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | -1.0wins | -0.11per pick | 55cpaid | -21.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd909…fd75backed Padres | 55c | 332.96$183 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$182.86 | 10 | 60%6 W · 4 L | +0.8wins | +0.08per pick | 52cpaid | +6.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf4bf…f1debacked Padres | 64c | 311.27$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.2wins | -0.58per pick | 58cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5ed7…537abacked Padres | 55c | 279.75$155 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$155 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5bf4…952ebacked Dodgers | 45c | 265$119 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$145.75 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.6wins | +0.18per pick | 48cpaid | +38.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdc4b…5a92backed Dodgers | 36c | 249.99$90 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$159.99 | 2,267 | 53.3%1,208 W · 1,059 L | -12.4wins | -0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2310…8537backed Dodgers | 45c | 200$90 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$110 | 13 | 69.2%9 W · 4 L | +2.6wins | +0.20per pick | 49cpaid | +33.4%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xecbe…42ffbacked Dodgers | 39c | 199.99$78 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$121.99 | 167 | 25.1%42 W · 125 L | +4.7wins | +0.03per pick | 22cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6761…a94fbacked Dodgers | 45c | 176.25$79 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$96.94 | 31 | 67.7%21 W · 10 L | +5.2wins | +0.17per pick | 51cpaid | +33.2%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x4403…5e3ebacked Padres | 61c | 163.93$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.7wins | -0.14per pick | 54cpaid | -27.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6b7e…4562backed Padres | 53c | 146.09$77 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$77.43 | 16 | 43.8%7 W · 9 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0355…4c8cbacked Padres | 21c | 144.94$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +1.0wins | +0.17per pick | 33cpaid | +12.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xae6f…7399backed Padres | 56c | 143.78$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +0.7wins | +0.11per pick | 55cpaid | +15.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4ef3…3d1bbacked Dodgers | 47c | 142.88$67 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$75.88 | 15 | 46.7%7 W · 8 L | -0.4wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -14.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8b32…5950backed Dodgers | 40c | 126.63$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$75.98 | 63 | 47.6%30 W · 33 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0078…bca0backed Dodgers | 47c | 106.38$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.38 | 32 | 50%16 W · 16 L | -2.2wins | -0.07per pick | 57cpaid | -14.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcd13…a813backed Padres | 56c | 100$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56 | 19 | 26.3%5 W · 14 L | -3.4wins | -0.18per pick | 44cpaid | -43.9%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x33bc…37dcbacked Dodgers | 38c | 98.39$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$61 | 215 | 38.6%83 W · 132 L | -8.9wins | -0.04per pick | 43cpaid | -15.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8637…6490backed Padres | 62c | 96.77$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.06per pick | 56cpaid | -2%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8a43…8691backed Dodgers | 43c | 93.02$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.02 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | +16.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x487f…30babacked Padres | 56c | 90$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.4 | 12 | 50%6 W · 6 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcf64…7e54backed Dodgers | 44c | 90$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.4 | 11 | 45.5%5 W · 6 L | -0.3wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2fb4…2794backed Dodgers | 35c | 78.74$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.18 | 16 | 37.5%6 W · 10 L | +0.3wins | +0.02per pick | 36cpaid | -15%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9a98…5be6backed Padres | 60c | 66.72$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.7wins | +0.17per pick | 58cpaid | +31.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0cc5…9cf9backed Dodgers | 45c | 55.56$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.56 | 19 | 57.9%11 W · 8 L | +1.6wins | +0.08per pick | 50cpaid | +30.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbd1c…422abacked Dodgers | 45c | 53.33$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.33 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +1.5wins | +0.49per pick | 51cpaid | +97.7%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3f58…9c6abacked Dodgers | 45c | 49.99$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.5 | 6 | 83.3%5 W · 1 L | +1.9wins | +0.32per pick | 52cpaid | +65.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xad9d…9b95backed Padres | 55c | 46.75$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.71 | 50 | 42%21 W · 29 L | -4.0wins | -0.08per pick | 50cpaid | -17.9%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7ba5…aaf1backed Padres | 47c | 46.02$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.71 | 540 | 48.3%261 W · 279 L | -12.6wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5138…1d4dbacked Dodgers | 45c | 43.29$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.81 | 17 | 47.1%8 W · 9 L | -0.5wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8a2a…db7dbacked Padres | 57c | 35.09$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.6wins | -0.52per pick | 52cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x51fd…4272backed Dodgers | 45c | 35$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.25 | 457 | 32.2%147 W · 310 L | +3.5wins | +0.01per pick | 31cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1413…4bddbacked Padres | 57c | 30$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.1 | 66 | 60.6%40 W · 26 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe429…fb94backed Dodgers | 44c | 28.24$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.81 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x691a…8cf0backed Padres | 60c | 25$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.60per pick | 60cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3c02…5e36backed Padres | 64c | 17.19$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.64per pick | 64cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.