Movies · resolved market
Will "Spider-Man: Brand New Day" 3rd Weekend Box Office be at least 72m?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x4293d19853b7c69a654b2f66d4e7d5261a02c5614243bd7f9c66add2e39496b8
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Moviesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $30,424
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $28,659
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $30,424 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 25 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Movies is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Movies | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xecaa…77a9backed Yes | 15c | 8,500$1,275 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,274.99 | 177 | 51.4%91 W · 86 L | +2.6wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -16.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb028…8686backed Yes | 10c | 5,078$533 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$532.72 | 236 | 39.8%94 W · 142 L | +5.9wins | +0.03per pick | 37cpaid | -26.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe9ce…9811backed No | 80c | 3,000$2,400 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$600 | 42 | 50%21 W · 21 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -28%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x43cf…d143backed Yes | 10c | 1,087$110 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$109.74 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x34a9…4cfdbacked Yes | 20c | 830.48$167 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$166.7 | 30 | 43.3%13 W · 17 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -9.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8b8b…2512backed Yes | 12c | 510.07$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.96 | 32 | 46.9%15 W · 17 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -19.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbe78…c533backed Yes | 16c | 467.2$76 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75.9 | 297 | 35.7%106 W · 191 L | +2.7wins | +0.01per pick | 35cpaid | -22.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9951…11bdbacked Yes | 15c | 452.5$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$68.05 | 18 | 55.6%10 W · 8 L | +2.9wins | +0.16per pick | 40cpaid | +9.2%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x33f8…c5e4backed Yes | 10c | 391.62$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.06 | 294 | 23.5%69 W · 225 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 23cpaid | -43%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd717…3b85backed No | 80c | 346.55$277 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$69.37 | 30 | 46.7%14 W · 16 L | +0.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -20.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 12c | 302.66$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.23 | 1,393 | 8%111 W · 1,282 L | -47.9wins | -0.03per pick | 11cpaid | -50%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9f20…12c3backed No | 78c | 240.12$188 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.88 | 84 | 42.9%36 W · 48 L | -2.7wins | -0.03per pick | 46cpaid | -30.1%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes | 15c | 164.95$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.88 | 137 | 35%48 W · 89 L | +3.8wins | +0.03per pick | 32cpaid | -35.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc972…dcd9backed Yes | 17c | 136.99$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.07 | 23 | 78.3%18 W · 5 L | +7.1wins | +0.31per pick | 47cpaid | +72.2%equal weight | 66+0.15 edge/pick |
| 0xf184…d472backed Yes | 21c | 103.83$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.35 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.30per pick | 30cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6169…a255backed Yes | 19c | 94.07$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.05 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -1.1wins | -0.27per pick | 27cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x42e6…8e78backed Yes | 19c | 68.53$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 78 | 60.3%47 W · 31 L | +7.1wins | +0.09per pick | 51cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x3653…ef74backed No | 78c | 53.92$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.74 | 34 | 44.1%15 W · 19 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | -32.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe732…898fbacked Yes | 25c | 46.63$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.52 | 146 | 28.1%41 W · 105 L | -4.0wins | -0.03per pick | 31cpaid | -29.9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5011…6237backed No | 57c | 34.93$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.95 | 12 | 50%6 W · 6 L | -0.6wins | -0.05per pick | 55cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa86f…022cbacked No | 80c | 30$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6 | 41 | 48.8%20 W · 21 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -11.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1f85…7b02backed No | 73c | 27.79$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.41 | 32 | 46.9%15 W · 17 L | +0.5wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9202…dde4backed No | 79c | 25.35$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.35 | 6 | 83.3%5 W · 1 L | +0.8wins | +0.13per pick | 70cpaid | +22%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x71d0…b8ddbacked No | 70c | 20$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.5wins | +0.12per pick | 38cpaid | -27%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x69f0…fb27backed No | 77c | 14.03$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.25 | 35 | 57.1%20 W · 15 L | +2.4wins | +0.07per pick | 50cpaid | +7.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Movies and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will "Spider-Man: Brand New Day" 3rd Weekend Box Office be at least 72m?this page
- Will "Spider-Man: Brand New Day" 3rd Weekend Box Office be between 66m and 68m?No won
- Will "Spider-Man: Brand New Day" 3rd Weekend Box Office be between 68m and 70m?No won
- Will "Spider-Man: Brand New Day" 3rd Weekend Box Office be between 70m and 72m?Yes won
- Will "Spider-Man: Brand New Day" 3rd Weekend Box Office be less than 66m?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.