Movies · resolved market
Will "Spider-Man: Brand New Day" 3rd Weekend Box Office be between 70m and 72m?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x3e77d8231a4e12c2ab52979892eaa9b5fa159ddcbffca18139ca0ddedc55113c
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Moviesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $10,943
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $13,165
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $10,943 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 29 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Movies is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Movies | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x33f8…c5e4backed Yes | 66c | 1,837$1,213 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$624.01 | 294 | 23.5%69 W · 225 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 23cpaid | -43%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed No | 32c | 718.63$229 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$229.38 | 167 | 37.1%62 W · 105 L | -3.2wins | -0.02per pick | 39cpaid | -37.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x671a…2f1ebacked No | 17c | 554.36$97 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$96.57 | 68 | 55.9%38 W · 30 L | +1.1wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -6.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x122c…fbedbacked No | 20c | 465.62$93 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$93.49 | 12 | 50%6 W · 6 L | +1.4wins | +0.11per pick | 39cpaid | +52.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xeda0…7dffbacked No | 23c | 451.91$102 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$102.37 | 31 | 19.4%6 W · 25 L | -0.7wins | -0.02per pick | 22cpaid | -61.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7dcf…a7bdbacked No | 18c | 385$71 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$71.06 | 64 | 46.9%30 W · 34 L | -1.7wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -26.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xab80…af18backed No | 48c | 348.33$169 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$168.67 | 13 | 38.5%5 W · 8 L | +0.8wins | +0.06per pick | 32cpaid | +62.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5095…93eebacked Yes | 10c | 275.05$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$247.56 | 296 | 42.6%126 W · 170 L | +22.9wins | +0.08per pick | 35cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x42e6…8e78backed Yes | 75c | 194.67$146 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.67 | 78 | 60.3%47 W · 31 L | +7.1wins | +0.09per pick | 51cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x30fb…7db4backed No | 14c | 190.35$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.72 | 108 | 30.6%33 W · 75 L | -13.9wins | -0.13per pick | 43cpaid | -42.9%equal weight | 38-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xe040…824fbacked No | 22c | 181$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.11 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.22per pick | 22cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe732…898fbacked Yes | 61c | 175.59$107 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$68.9 | 146 | 28.1%41 W · 105 L | -4.0wins | -0.03per pick | 31cpaid | -29.9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes | 70c | 165.54$116 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.83 | 137 | 35%48 W · 89 L | +3.8wins | +0.03per pick | 32cpaid | -35.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9aeb…2729backed Yes | 52c | 155.36$81 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$74.74 | 187 | 46%86 W · 101 L | +3.2wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -20%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6163…07a3backed Yes | 77c | 120$93 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.38 | 18 | 22.2%4 W · 14 L | -0.4wins | -0.02per pick | 24cpaid | -16.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x510f…a43cbacked No | 11c | 120$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.5 | 100 | 42%42 W · 58 L | +0.7wins | +0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -25.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb0c8…fe7fbacked No | 24c | 106.74$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.47 | 68 | 33.8%23 W · 45 L | -3.2wins | -0.05per pick | 38cpaid | -33.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5edc…bbadbacked No | 53c | 104.52$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.06 | 45 | 60%27 W · 18 L | +2.7wins | +0.06per pick | 54cpaid | -4.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3e01…757abacked Yes | 57c | 60$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.8 | 82 | 31.7%26 W · 56 L | -2.8wins | -0.03per pick | 35cpaid | +22.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 43c | 58$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.81 | 870 | 33.3%290 W · 580 L | -77.0wins | -0.09per pick | 42cpaid | -37.8%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x9951…11bdbacked Yes | 48c | 57.89$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.16 | 18 | 55.6%10 W · 8 L | +2.9wins | +0.16per pick | 40cpaid | +9.2%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x4e72…ffb9backed Yes | 37c | 57.54$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.27 | 35 | 45.7%16 W · 19 L | +1.4wins | +0.04per pick | 42cpaid | -12.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7bdd…5fb3backed Yes | 75c | 50$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.5 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | -1.4wins | -0.16per pick | 60cpaid | +8.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x22b0…a500backed Yes | 78c | 50$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.9 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.22per pick | 78cpaid | +27.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8958…656dbacked No | 25c | 40$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | +0.7wins | +0.09per pick | 41cpaid | -15.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9202…dde4backed Yes | 48c | 27.54$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.32 | 6 | 83.3%5 W · 1 L | +0.8wins | +0.13per pick | 70cpaid | +22%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4ce8…6414backed Yes | 78c | 27.12$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.95 | 18 | 27.8%5 W · 13 L | +0.8wins | +0.05per pick | 23cpaid | -54.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x69f0…fb27backed Yes | 54c | 21.17$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.67 | 35 | 57.1%20 W · 15 L | +2.4wins | +0.07per pick | 50cpaid | +7.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8483…6d2ebacked Yes | 71c | 20$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.78 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.3wins | -0.06per pick | 26cpaid | -71.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Movies and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will "Spider-Man: Brand New Day" 3rd Weekend Box Office be between 70m and 72m?this page
- Will "Spider-Man: Brand New Day" 3rd Weekend Box Office be at least 72m?No won
- Will "Spider-Man: Brand New Day" 3rd Weekend Box Office be between 66m and 68m?No won
- Will "Spider-Man: Brand New Day" 3rd Weekend Box Office be between 68m and 70m?No won
- Will "Spider-Man: Brand New Day" 3rd Weekend Box Office be less than 66m?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.