Bundesliga · resolved market
Will DSC Arminia Bielefeld vs. VfL Bochum end in a draw?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x4293e94720c948236dcc5980022a64b0c6f41daada17f901e76821e9e4edfc4a
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Bundesligaevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $9,432
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $9,630
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $9,432 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 26 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Bundesliga is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Bundesliga | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x2005…75eabacked No | 44c | 4,457$1,966 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,966.34 | 2,538 | 39.8%1,009 W · 1,529 L | -8.1wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Yes | 26c | 2,644$676 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,967.68 | 3,284 | 42.6%1,399 W · 1,885 L | -74.0wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -18.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd218…b5c9backed No | 4c | 2,605$105 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$105.35 | 337 | 37.4%126 W · 211 L | -11.2wins | -0.03per pick | 41cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x01c7…e995backed No | 19c | 364.26$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$69.86 | 1,013 | 44.5%451 W · 562 L | -8.2wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -20.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x775d…6bebbacked No | 15c | 134$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.73 | 24 | 37.5%9 W · 15 L | -3.7wins | -0.15per pick | 53cpaid | -20.5%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x473e…c0f6backed No | 42c | 133.87$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.38 | 17 | 23.5%4 W · 13 L | -2.8wins | -0.16per pick | 40cpaid | -42.9%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xf2ba…4028backed Yes | 27c | 100$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$73 | 388 | 45.6%177 W · 211 L | +3.8wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd37a…2358backed No | 75c | 90.25$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67.69 | 624 | 52.6%328 W · 296 L | -9.9wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7479…e171backed Yes | 25c | 72.09$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54.06 | 63 | 55.6%35 W · 28 L | +3.3wins | +0.05per pick | 50cpaid | +12.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x26d6…caccbacked Yes | 40c | 67.14$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.52 | 93 | 54.8%51 W · 42 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -13.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa509…ae46backed No | 20c | 52.7$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.44 | 398 | 57.5%229 W · 169 L | +20.0wins | +0.05per pick | 53cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc978…706bbacked No | 73c | 48.3$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.26 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | +0.6wins | +0.08per pick | 55cpaid | +80%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0d6a…4adabacked Yes | 40c | 47.1$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.26 | 35 | 51.4%18 W · 17 L | +0.9wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +11.9%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7e1b…106cbacked No | 74c | 40.25$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.91 | 20 | 65%13 W · 7 L | -0.9wins | -0.04per pick | 69cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7d85…5c50backed Yes | 25c | 40$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | +0.7wins | +0.07per pick | 23cpaid | +49.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa9f5…937fbacked Yes | 62c | 37$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.06 | 222 | 45.9%102 W · 120 L | +1.2wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x84ad…bfb7backed Yes | 47c | 34.5$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.26 | 640 | 43.9%281 W · 359 L | -9.7wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -17.6%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x29a5…a3c4backed No | 36c | 30$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.8 | 109 | 56%61 W · 48 L | +3.0wins | +0.03per pick | 53cpaid | +4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdbdd…a5debacked Yes | 51c | 21.76$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.76 | 486 | 58.6%285 W · 201 L | +44.5wins | +0.09per pick | 49cpaid | +33%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xa6d7…d801backed No | 74c | 20.27$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 31 | 41.9%13 W · 18 L | -3.3wins | -0.10per pick | 52cpaid | -17.5%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1edb…a60bbacked No | 75c | 20$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 14 | 64.3%9 W · 5 L | +1.5wins | +0.11per pick | 53cpaid | +16.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb988…f50fbacked No | 75c | 20$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.96 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.7wins | -0.22per pick | 56cpaid | -25.9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0d5f…1171backed No | 73c | 18.27$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.34 | 69 | 46.4%32 W · 37 L | -7.3wins | -0.11per pick | 57cpaid | -16.6%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x048e…63e3backed Yes | 64c | 15.63$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.63 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.30per pick | 71cpaid | +43.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3d90…3bbdbacked No | 75c | 15$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.25 | 10 | 70%7 W · 3 L | +0.7wins | +0.07per pick | 63cpaid | +12.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd45c…bb50backed No | 74c | 15$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.1 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -2.4wins | -0.59per pick | 59cpaid | -100%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Bundesliga and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will DSC Arminia Bielefeld vs. VfL Bochum end in a draw?this page
- Will DSC Arminia Bielefeld win on 2026-05-02?No won
- Will VfL Bochum win on 2026-05-02?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.