Bundesliga · resolved market
Will DSC Arminia Bielefeld win on 2026-05-02?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x70f2ef23486664bb454e7bcac8bd2fc62035d3f5126f71b9e45879b1cb96ba19
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Bundesligaevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $25,831
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $24,201
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $25,831 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 43 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Bundesliga is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Bundesliga | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x12b9…3ec2backed No | 26c | 4,082$1,043 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,039.6 | 106 | 41.5%44 W · 62 L | +6.2wins | +0.06per pick | 36cpaid | +13.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked No | 34c | 1,867$638 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,229.74 | 2,538 | 39.8%1,009 W · 1,529 L | -8.1wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfe78…0319backed No | 24c | 1,670$401 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,269.67 | 481 | 41.8%201 W · 280 L | -5.3wins | -0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -12.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3f3a…e8fdbacked No | 44c | 1,264$556 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$708.09 | 72 | 55.6%40 W · 32 L | +3.0wins | +0.04per pick | 51cpaid | +8.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x75bd…0288backed Yes | 56c | 1,252$701 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$700.98 | 96 | 46.9%45 W · 51 L | +3.0wins | +0.03per pick | 44cpaid | +17.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa9f5…937fbacked Yes | 74c | 1,142$845 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$844.95 | 222 | 45.9%102 W · 120 L | +1.2wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe911…3d4ebacked Yes | 75c | 1,063$797 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$797.25 | 491 | 43.2%212 W · 279 L | -1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | +22.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x397e…3d84backed Yes | 79c | 1,054$831 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$831.29 | 446 | 55.4%247 W · 199 L | +22.4wins | +0.05per pick | 50cpaid | +11.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5901…e11fbacked Yes | 1c | 1,000$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x14c2…7d55backed No | 21c | 1,000$210 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$790 | 47 | 34%16 W · 31 L | +3.0wins | +0.06per pick | 28cpaid | +25%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd218…b5c9backed Yes | 74c | 998.31$738 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$737.96 | 337 | 37.4%126 W · 211 L | -11.2wins | -0.03per pick | 41cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x660d…56acbacked Yes | 49c | 775.82$382 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$382 | 90 | 43.3%39 W · 51 L | -1.1wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9079…b19bbacked Yes | 75c | 614.64$461 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$460.98 | 56 | 53.6%30 W · 26 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 54cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x133b…5856backed Yes | 79c | 528.98$417 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$417.14 | 45 | 57.8%26 W · 19 L | +2.3wins | +0.05per pick | 53cpaid | +14%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7a49…d9f5backed No | 21c | 477.49$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$377.07 | 407 | 44.5%181 W · 226 L | -5.1wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -20.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0d42…f124backed No | 22c | 385.7$84 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$301.44 | 62 | 27.4%17 W · 45 L | -1.5wins | -0.02per pick | 30cpaid | -12%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x84ad…bfb7backed No | 44c | 284.07$125 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$158.62 | 640 | 43.9%281 W · 359 L | -9.7wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -17.6%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed No | 30c | 203.34$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$143.35 | 3,284 | 42.6%1,399 W · 1,885 L | -74.0wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -18.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6882…6f08backed Yes | 75c | 133.4$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 34 | 64.7%22 W · 12 L | -1.1wins | -0.03per pick | 68cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7479…e171backed Yes | 74c | 128.85$95 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$95.35 | 63 | 55.6%35 W · 28 L | +3.3wins | +0.05per pick | 50cpaid | +12.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6f19…b9ffbacked No | 51c | 118$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$57.82 | 15 | 40%6 W · 9 L | -1.1wins | -0.07per pick | 47cpaid | -22.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x200f…7a96backed No | 51c | 115$59 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.35 | 1,083 | 50.8%550 W · 533 L | +8.2wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3b5c…126ebacked No | 51c | 106.6$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.6 | 271 | 38.4%104 W · 167 L | -9.0wins | -0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -17%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf39a…fe47backed Yes | 73c | 105$77 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$76.89 | 275 | 54.9%151 W · 124 L | +3.6wins | +0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1871…59e6backed Yes | 48c | 100$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48 | 102 | 51%52 W · 50 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd37a…2358backed No | 52c | 89.1$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.86 | 624 | 52.6%328 W · 296 L | -9.9wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed No | 55c | 83.41$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.31 | 222 | 21.6%48 W · 174 L | -34.2wins | -0.15per pick | 37cpaid | -50.3%equal weight | 35-0.14 edge/pick |
| 0xf9b5…1212backed No | 22c | 81.82$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$63.82 | 105 | 32.4%34 W · 71 L | -8.6wins | -0.08per pick | 41cpaid | -13.5%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x7a3f…6712backed Yes | 75c | 75$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.25 | 29 | 51.7%15 W · 14 L | -0.6wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -14.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfec4…1958backed Yes | 76c | 65.79$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -1.2wins | -0.41per pick | 74cpaid | -50.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2c06…db24backed Yes | 74c | 61.8$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.73 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | -0.8wins | -0.10per pick | 47cpaid | +77%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x473e…c0f6backed Yes | 26c | 60.8$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.93 | 17 | 23.5%4 W · 13 L | -2.8wins | -0.16per pick | 40cpaid | -42.9%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xbed0…3c7dbacked Yes | 28c | 54.53$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 204 | 36.3%74 W · 130 L | -5.5wins | -0.03per pick | 39cpaid | -13%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0d27…c38cbacked No | 51c | 50$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.5 | 34 | 64.7%22 W · 12 L | +4.4wins | +0.13per pick | 52cpaid | +27.5%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x26d6…caccbacked No | 52c | 39.4$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.1 | 93 | 54.8%51 W · 42 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -13.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7ea5…de7bbacked No | 51c | 35.79$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.72 | 1,681 | 45.2%759 W · 922 L | +6.8wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | -2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3dc7…cff8backed Yes | 77c | 29$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.34 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.8wins | -0.77per pick | 77cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x677e…21b3backed Yes | 48c | 28.94$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.89 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.4wins | -0.10per pick | 35cpaid | -45.7%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x452f…b277backed Yes | 48c | 28.13$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.5 | 59 | 45.8%27 W · 32 L | +2.0wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +14.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdb83…1e50backed No | 51c | 23.4$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.47 | 264 | 45.5%120 W · 144 L | -2.7wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x089f…f599backed Yes | 56c | 23$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.83 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.56per pick | 56cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2e27…9967backed Yes | 79c | 17.45$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.79 | 21 | 52.4%11 W · 10 L | -3.1wins | -0.15per pick | 67cpaid | -23.9%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x0d5f…1171backed Yes | 74c | 14.49$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.72 | 69 | 46.4%32 W · 37 L | -7.3wins | -0.11per pick | 57cpaid | -16.6%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Bundesliga and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will DSC Arminia Bielefeld win on 2026-05-02?this page
- Will DSC Arminia Bielefeld vs. VfL Bochum end in a draw?Yes won
- Will VfL Bochum win on 2026-05-02?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.