Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 26°C or higher on May 4?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x429e739ae613172cfb23c4c1feb499af55b32c7e0d9b4a4ad26275fa2745c1ef
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $15,354
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $12,358
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $15,354 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 40 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x6bee…7e78backed Yes | 4c | 1,522$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67.87 | 1,076 | 23.5%253 W · 823 L | +69.1wins | +0.06per pick | 17cpaid | +14.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xff53…f5ecbacked Yes | 5c | 710.79$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.23 | 35 | 25.7%9 W · 26 L | +1.9wins | +0.05per pick | 20cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa054…a95dbacked Yes | 27c | 476.56$128 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$127.65 | 399 | 66.2%264 W · 135 L | +33.6wins | +0.08per pick | 58cpaid | +20.8%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x0f60…026abacked No | 78c | 455.72$357 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$98.8 | 999 | 63.5%634 W · 365 L | -3.0wins | 0.00per pick | 64cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa98a…a5a8backed Yes | 19c | 370.03$69 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$69.26 | 2,015 | 67.7%1,365 W · 650 L | +1.8wins | 0.00per pick | 68cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe272…ac63backed Yes | 16c | 325.48$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.57 | 205 | 34.1%70 W · 135 L | +10.6wins | +0.05per pick | 29cpaid | +31.5%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 14c | 301.65$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.54 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5b4a…089fbacked No | 79c | 289.94$229 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60.92 | 36 | 50%18 W · 18 L | +4.1wins | +0.11per pick | 39cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x8103…23a1backed Yes | 4c | 255.76$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.23 | 576 | 14.9%86 W · 490 L | +14.1wins | +0.02per pick | 12cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9cb3…1367backed Yes | 6c | 244.77$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.13 | 1,554 | 33.1%515 W · 1,039 L | -66.6wins | -0.04per pick | 37cpaid | -27.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2612…5289backed Yes | 6c | 200.95$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.91 | 3,048 | 40.5%1,234 W · 1,814 L | -121.5wins | -0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -23.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0820…4b09backed Yes | 28c | 176.12$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49 | 23 | 26.1%6 W · 17 L | +0.9wins | +0.04per pick | 22cpaid | +46%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xae68…064abacked Yes | 35c | 166.62$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.57 | 2,555 | 63.8%1,631 W · 924 L | +38.4wins | +0.02per pick | 62cpaid | +8.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa159…ac8ebacked Yes | 18c | 138.88$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 32 | 15.6%5 W · 27 L | -1.1wins | -0.04per pick | 19cpaid | -31.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x60d8…f2a6backed Yes | 27c | 138.83$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.56 | 378 | 35.4%134 W · 244 L | +10.5wins | +0.03per pick | 33cpaid | +10.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x13c1…0145backed No | 75c | 133.01$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.01 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.25per pick | 75cpaid | +33%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1c6d…8cc4backed Yes | 12c | 111.53$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 274 | 21.9%60 W · 214 L | -6.8wins | -0.02per pick | 24cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x044f…d1f1backed No | 79c | 110$87 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.4 | 8,162 | 49.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L | +269.7wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9155…4511backed Yes | 35c | 107.98$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.16 | 11 | 36.4%4 W · 7 L | +0.7wins | +0.07per pick | 30cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc705…b62fbacked Yes | 16c | 95.32$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 28 | 50%14 W · 14 L | +1.4wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x356b…1c3fbacked Yes | 20c | 63.44$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.82 | 591 | 25.9%153 W · 438 L | -3.1wins | -0.01per pick | 26cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd78c…a66ebacked Yes | 22c | 62.5$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.75 | 728 | 37.8%275 W · 453 L | -12.0wins | -0.02per pick | 39cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8c99…3ef0backed No | 66c | 62.01$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.78 | 89 | 55.1%49 W · 40 L | -2.0wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3da3…0fdcbacked Yes | 26c | 50$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 1,024 | 25%256 W · 768 L | +20.4wins | +0.02per pick | 23cpaid | +39.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0d10…a713backed Yes | 23c | 50$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.5 | 143 | 32.2%46 W · 97 L | +14.7wins | +0.10per pick | 22cpaid | +81.2%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xa708…9321backed No | 71c | 47.32$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.52 | 1,299 | 57.5%747 W · 552 L | +11.8wins | +0.01per pick | 57cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4560…8ce8backed No | 73c | 43.97$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.03 | 350 | 58.3%204 W · 146 L | +4.8wins | +0.01per pick | 57cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5576…59e9backed Yes | 40c | 43.62$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.24 | 170 | 33.5%57 W · 113 L | -2.0wins | -0.01per pick | 35cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe14a…c6c8backed No | 61c | 41.92$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.35 | 64 | 59.4%38 W · 26 L | +0.7wins | +0.01per pick | 58cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd731…4199backed No | 79c | 40$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.6 | 92 | 73.9%68 W · 24 L | +5.0wins | +0.05per pick | 69cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x05d4…ae97backed Yes | 25c | 40$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 36 | 41.7%15 W · 21 L | +4.2wins | +0.12per pick | 30cpaid | +22.6%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xa9c1…be67backed Yes | 27c | 37.1$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.04 | 34 | 88.2%30 W · 4 L | +7.2wins | +0.21per pick | 67cpaid | +29.6%equal weight | 63+0.12 edge/pick |
| 0x85c8…80f8backed No | 77c | 36$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.42 | 391 | 58.1%227 W · 164 L | -1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 58cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x40c8…da0fbacked No | 69c | 32.36$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.01 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.6wins | +0.21per pick | 46cpaid | +13.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xeb54…d452backed No | 68c | 29$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.28 | 4,525 | 65.6%2,967 W · 1,558 L | -134.0wins | -0.03per pick | 69cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1359…7e7bbacked No | 78c | 25.64$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.64 | 117 | 74.4%87 W · 30 L | -1.2wins | -0.01per pick | 75cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x75b0…e7b7backed No | 75c | 25$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.25 | 1,585 | 78.5%1,244 W · 341 L | +39.7wins | +0.03per pick | 76cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe712…9a10backed No | 78c | 25$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.45 | 868 | 47.7%414 W · 454 L | +40.7wins | +0.05per pick | 43cpaid | +6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x515c…7587backed No | 70c | 18.39$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.52 | 196 | 48%94 W · 102 L | -11.8wins | -0.06per pick | 54cpaid | -20.5%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x873d…f7a9backed No | 73c | 14.73$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.98 | 58 | 65.5%38 W · 20 L | -1.3wins | -0.02per pick | 68cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Munich be 26°C or higher on May 4?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Munich be 22°C on May 4?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Munich be 23°C on May 4?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Munich be 24°C on May 4?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Munich be 25°C on May 4?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.