Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 25°C on May 4?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x3907b645f5244af501b496db7281205e6e224204f7f74f0162bfa77636875135
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $14,548
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $13,350
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $14,548 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 103 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x6bee…7e78backed Yes | 19c | 440.1$84 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$83.81 | 1,076 | 23.5%253 W · 823 L | +69.1wins | +0.06per pick | 17cpaid | +14.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xfeb3…8d26backed Yes | 38c | 324.19$124 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$123.95 | 69 | 50.7%35 W · 34 L | +3.8wins | +0.06per pick | 45cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdc38…eef3backed Yes | 36c | 231.52$84 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$84.16 | 88 | 33%29 W · 59 L | -3.7wins | -0.04per pick | 37cpaid | -15.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x510f…a43cbacked No | 58c | 217.59$126 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$91.76 | 3,474 | 33.9%1,177 W · 2,297 L | -175.6wins | -0.05per pick | 39cpaid | -28.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2a87…a55abacked Yes | 36c | 212.19$77 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$76.97 | 1,112 | 35.1%390 W · 722 L | -13.2wins | -0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x081e…1e4ebacked Yes | 56c | 200.17$113 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$112.77 | 321 | 47.4%152 W · 169 L | +4.0wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe272…ac63backed Yes | 19c | 198.43$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.56 | 205 | 34.1%70 W · 135 L | +10.6wins | +0.05per pick | 29cpaid | +31.5%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa054…a95dbacked Yes | 25c | 190.18$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.08 | 399 | 66.2%264 W · 135 L | +33.6wins | +0.08per pick | 58cpaid | +20.8%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x5f05…a70fbacked Yes | 23c | 177.28$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 134 | 23.1%31 W · 103 L | -11.0wins | -0.08per pick | 31cpaid | -33.4%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x8c38…83d0backed Yes | 62c | 176.28$110 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$109.92 | 50 | 24%12 W · 38 L | -1.7wins | -0.03per pick | 27cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 49c | 171.52$85 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$86.87 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2936…6c5fbacked No | 43c | 169.99$72 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$97.72 | 342 | 50.6%173 W · 169 L | -3.2wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -11.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdedd…17e1backed No | 64c | 162.27$104 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58.1 | 2,432 | 60.4%1,470 W · 962 L | +30.2wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd3b4…73cdbacked No | 65c | 161.29$105 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.45 | 631 | 43.1%272 W · 359 L | -14.0wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x108a…8159backed Yes | 39c | 160.28$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62.34 | 587 | 32.9%193 W · 394 L | +34.4wins | +0.06per pick | 27cpaid | +15.4%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc79a…6d28backed Yes | 70c | 143.44$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.70per pick | 70cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x60d8…f2a6backed Yes | 28c | 138.8$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.15 | 378 | 35.4%134 W · 244 L | +10.5wins | +0.03per pick | 33cpaid | +10.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x044f…d1f1backed No | 64c | 136.07$87 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.29 | 8,162 | 49.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L | +269.7wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5c70…edf3backed Yes | 11c | 130.85$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 125 | 39.2%49 W · 76 L | -2.6wins | -0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -9.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd1a6…1507backed No | 73c | 124.9$91 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.56 | 2,626 | 54%1,418 W · 1,208 L | -56.4wins | -0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -19.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2612…5289backed No | 52c | 122.97$64 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58.93 | 3,048 | 40.5%1,234 W · 1,814 L | -121.5wins | -0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -23.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xeb7f…0abbbacked Yes | 58c | 122.62$72 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$71.61 | 189 | 48.1%91 W · 98 L | -3.0wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -10.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0f60…026abacked No | 77c | 119.61$92 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.39 | 999 | 63.5%634 W · 365 L | -3.0wins | 0.00per pick | 64cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb49f…1821backed Yes | 58c | 113.36$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66.3 | 1,061 | 53.2%564 W · 497 L | +33.5wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1df8…6c4ebacked Yes | 35c | 112.96$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.96 | 57 | 29.8%17 W · 40 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 31cpaid | -21%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8b5d…57d3backed Yes | 37c | 100$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37 | 743 | 38.2%284 W · 459 L | +17.8wins | +0.02per pick | 36cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa045…282abacked Yes | 60c | 100$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 30 | 56.7%17 W · 13 L | +0.8wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | +7.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3d1d…9e61backed No | 52c | 89.92$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.19 | 2,870 | 64.8%1,860 W · 1,010 L | -32.8wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x356b…1c3fbacked Yes | 21c | 82.51$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.51 | 591 | 25.9%153 W · 438 L | -3.1wins | -0.01per pick | 26cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8f34…2f50backed No | 49c | 78.88$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.22 | 4,120 | 60.8%2,506 W · 1,614 L | +32.7wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7da5…0865backed No | 50c | 77.4$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.4 | 48 | 58.3%28 W · 20 L | -3.3wins | -0.07per pick | 65cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x726e…aafbbacked No | 77c | 76.96$59 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18 | 232 | 69%160 W · 72 L | +23.7wins | +0.10per pick | 59cpaid | +27.2%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xaf17…5c20backed Yes | 17c | 76.92$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.39 | 1,787 | 25.7%460 W · 1,327 L | +132.5wins | +0.07per pick | 18cpaid | +50.8%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x3334…69b0backed No | 64c | 76.48$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.16 | 464 | 44.4%206 W · 258 L | -18.2wins | -0.04per pick | 48cpaid | -12.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed Yes | 39c | 74.42$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.25 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed Yes | 15c | 73.16$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.68 | 7,148 | 9.3%666 W · 6,482 L | -1,105.8wins | -0.15per pick | 25cpaid | -75.9%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0xcf70…8f19backed Yes | 38c | 72.62$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.84 | 139 | 41.7%58 W · 81 L | -2.6wins | -0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xff53…f5ecbacked Yes | 35c | 71.98$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.19 | 35 | 25.7%9 W · 26 L | +1.9wins | +0.05per pick | 20cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed Yes | 21c | 71.13$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.7 | 7,481 | 37.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L | +97.4wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc705…b62fbacked Yes | 43c | 70.59$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 28 | 50%14 W · 14 L | +1.4wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc120…a7e3backed No | 45c | 70.11$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.56 | 1,299 | 54.1%703 W · 596 L | +24.7wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9f20…12c3backed No | 64c | 66.96$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.37 | 4,104 | 56.6%2,322 W · 1,782 L | +50.5wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2b59…9db6backed No | 75c | 65.2$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.42 | 1,901 | 55.6%1,057 W · 844 L | +7.7wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8bca…e136backed Yes | 36c | 63.72$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.25 | 445 | 36.2%161 W · 284 L | +13.0wins | +0.03per pick | 33cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8c99…3ef0backed No | 73c | 62.01$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.02 | 89 | 55.1%49 W · 40 L | -2.0wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xedbd…dd60backed No | 51c | 60.28$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.42 | 3,301 | 65%2,147 W · 1,154 L | -38.5wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfa28…c37ebacked Yes | 37c | 59.28$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.22 | 3,939 | 35.3%1,392 W · 2,547 L | +35.4wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc1a7…f77fbacked Yes | 22c | 57.74$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.89 | 180 | 38.9%70 W · 110 L | +13.2wins | +0.07per pick | 32cpaid | +9.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2e6f…8cfcbacked Yes | 40c | 56.59$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.85 | 197 | 34%67 W · 130 L | +2.5wins | +0.01per pick | 33cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1a92…35bcbacked Yes | 51c | 55.84$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.25 | 449 | 45.9%206 W · 243 L | +10.2wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa708…9321backed No | 64c | 55.46$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.9 | 1,299 | 57.5%747 W · 552 L | +11.8wins | +0.01per pick | 57cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd611…53c8backed No | 70c | 55.24$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.67 | 72 | 77.8%56 W · 16 L | +3.6wins | +0.05per pick | 73cpaid | +5.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa8e7…e176backed Yes | 36c | 55.04$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.36per pick | 36cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x39c0…ae83backed Yes | 37c | 52.65$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.48 | 122 | 23%28 W · 94 L | -4.2wins | -0.03per pick | 26cpaid | -9.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7112…6d11backed No | 61c | 51.99$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.28 | 349 | 70.2%245 W · 104 L | +8.0wins | +0.02per pick | 68cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4179…cceebacked No | 74c | 51.98$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.3 | 429 | 76.5%328 W · 101 L | +4.5wins | +0.01per pick | 75cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd06f…6719backed Yes | 26c | 50$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 920 | 28.7%264 W · 656 L | +29.5wins | +0.03per pick | 25cpaid | -8.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x59d4…b745backed Yes | 20c | 50$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 275 | 40%110 W · 165 L | -10.0wins | -0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -13.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2986…b3a9backed No | 30c | 50$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35 | 2,995 | 31.4%940 W · 2,055 L | +41.6wins | +0.01per pick | 30cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3f30…f8debacked Yes | 36c | 49.99$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.99 | 3,830 | 47.1%1,805 W · 2,025 L | +63.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa691…41f7backed No | 31c | 49.98$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.49 | 21 | 38.1%8 W · 13 L | -1.4wins | -0.07per pick | 45cpaid | -18.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6ad7…347abacked No | 47c | 47.96$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.46 | 729 | 52.4%382 W · 347 L | +34.9wins | +0.05per pick | 48cpaid | +9.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3ea1…d176backed No | 61c | 46.29$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.05 | 203 | 53.7%109 W · 94 L | +6.6wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5576…59e9backed Yes | 35c | 46.11$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.14 | 170 | 33.5%57 W · 113 L | -2.0wins | -0.01per pick | 35cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x671a…2f1ebacked No | 67c | 46.04$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.99 | 175 | 70.3%123 W · 52 L | +9.9wins | +0.06per pick | 65cpaid | +12.2%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2155…3428backed Yes | 65c | 45.91$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.86 | 188 | 45.2%85 W · 103 L | -7.3wins | -0.04per pick | 49cpaid | -17.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7cf7…3c63backed Yes | 59c | 44.84$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.28 | 23 | 60.9%14 W · 9 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 61cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6854…67d0backed No | 39c | 44.56$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.2 | 617 | 52.8%326 W · 291 L | -1.5wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf10e…4308backed No | 36c | 41.49$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.49 | 236 | 73.3%173 W · 63 L | +28.6wins | +0.12per pick | 61cpaid | +27.6%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x82e6…6a03backed No | 77c | 39.99$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.1 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 69cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x02c7…a28dbacked Yes | 56c | 39.84$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.21 | 26 | 53.8%14 W · 12 L | +2.5wins | +0.10per pick | 44cpaid | +41.1%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xea4a…39c8backed Yes | 48c | 35.33$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.07 | 223 | 35.9%80 W · 143 L | +5.3wins | +0.02per pick | 33cpaid | +9.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7aea…2ab8backed Yes | 68c | 35.18$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.1 | 54 | 31.5%17 W · 37 L | -7.1wins | -0.13per pick | 45cpaid | -43.4%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x5608…c0dbbacked No | 39c | 34.98$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.23 | 191 | 60.7%116 W · 75 L | +11.6wins | +0.06per pick | 55cpaid | +8.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x072f…86b1backed No | 56c | 34.54$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.14 | 111 | 51.4%57 W · 54 L | -8.0wins | -0.07per pick | 59cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x93ed…35c4backed Yes | 59c | 34.07$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 178 | 61.2%109 W · 69 L | -8.0wins | -0.04per pick | 66cpaid | -10.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb3eb…b529backed Yes | 61c | 32.66$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 616 | 29.4%181 W · 435 L | +7.8wins | +0.01per pick | 28cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbcce…65afbacked No | 46c | 32.57$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.64 | 277 | 71.5%198 W · 79 L | +3.7wins | +0.01per pick | 70cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcb26…0e22backed No | 72c | 31$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.8 | 391 | 57%223 W · 168 L | -6.0wins | -0.02per pick | 59cpaid | -9.3%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7a1b…1c78backed Yes | 35c | 30$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.5 | 174 | 60.3%105 W · 69 L | +6.1wins | +0.04per pick | 57cpaid | +7.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xda91…d760backed Yes | 35c | 30$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.5 | 1,010 | 40.3%407 W · 603 L | +16.9wins | +0.02per pick | 39cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5566…7c29backed No | 46c | 29.99$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.2 | 284 | 56%159 W · 125 L | -4.8wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x353b…e535backed Yes | 68c | 29.41$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 65 | 47.7%31 W · 34 L | -1.3wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2995…8410backed Yes | 51c | 29.25$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.99 | 196 | 32.7%64 W · 132 L | -5.4wins | -0.03per pick | 35cpaid | -18.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xeb54…d452backed No | 67c | 29$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.57 | 4,525 | 65.6%2,967 W · 1,558 L | -134.0wins | -0.03per pick | 69cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4184…c863backed No | 43c | 28.12$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.01 | 899 | 51.6%464 W · 435 L | -40.0wins | -0.04per pick | 56cpaid | -13.5%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x98d9…2c8cbacked Yes | 71c | 28.11$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 576 | 59%340 W · 236 L | -17.2wins | -0.03per pick | 62cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb70d…253abacked No | 43c | 24.4$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.91 | 151 | 52.3%79 W · 72 L | +4.8wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +16.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4560…8ce8backed No | 70c | 23.42$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.1 | 350 | 58.3%204 W · 146 L | +4.8wins | +0.01per pick | 57cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5308…a8f6backed Yes | 65c | 23.08$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 38 | 65.8%25 W · 13 L | +0.6wins | +0.02per pick | 64cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdd7a…7bfbbacked No | 71c | 22.41$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.5 | 4,961 | 68.3%3,386 W · 1,575 L | +65.6wins | +0.01per pick | 67cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcaaa…da37backed No | 70c | 22.4$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.79 | 446 | 59%263 W · 183 L | -2.4wins | -0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfc92…b4d7backed No | 55c | 22.27$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.02 | 103 | 60.2%62 W · 41 L | -1.5wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0ba3…57bcbacked No | 73c | 21$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.71 | 391 | 59.8%234 W · 157 L | +3.8wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x429c…5f41backed Yes | 49c | 20.41$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.09 | 107 | 45.8%49 W · 58 L | -7.4wins | -0.07per pick | 53cpaid | -13.4%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x79b6…e042backed No | 67c | 20$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.6 | 445 | 53.3%237 W · 208 L | -21.2wins | -0.05per pick | 58cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x958a…9f65backed No | 76c | 20$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.8 | 558 | 55.2%308 W · 250 L | -10.0wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa38c…ff1bbacked Yes | 59c | 20$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.8 | 12 | 66.7%8 W · 4 L | -0.4wins | -0.04per pick | 70cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9fbf…f003backed Yes | 63c | 19.1$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.01 | 306 | 52.6%161 W · 145 L | +10.8wins | +0.04per pick | 49cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7e4b…ac6bbacked No | 77c | 18.03$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.2 | 358 | 54.7%196 W · 162 L | -13.7wins | -0.04per pick | 59cpaid | -11.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Munich be 25°C on May 4?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Munich be 22°C on May 4?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Munich be 23°C on May 4?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Munich be 24°C on May 4?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Munich be 26°C or higher on May 4?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.