Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 24°C on May 4?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x1b4ca8fa275b5b3763d90be278dd9f37c09053b550ec15e18e6552a23a7d4331
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $23,816
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $24,275
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $23,816 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 99 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x74d8…3776backed No | 1c | 3,806$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.64 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.4wins | -0.11per pick | 11cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe412…8d3cbacked No | 1c | 1,000$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 28c | 458.62$129 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$129.15 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 26c | 251.64$65 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$186.7 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfeb3…8d26backed Yes | 53c | 247.88$132 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$115.88 | 69 | 50.7%35 W · 34 L | +3.8wins | +0.06per pick | 45cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2612…5289backed No | 58c | 231.86$134 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$133.7 | 3,048 | 40.5%1,234 W · 1,814 L | -121.5wins | -0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -23.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdc38…eef3backed Yes | 42c | 231.79$98 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$134.13 | 88 | 33%29 W · 59 L | -3.7wins | -0.04per pick | 37cpaid | -15.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdedd…17e1backed No | 37c | 186.67$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$69.96 | 2,432 | 60.4%1,470 W · 962 L | +30.2wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xae68…064abacked No | 76c | 183.27$139 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$138.72 | 2,555 | 63.8%1,631 W · 924 L | +38.4wins | +0.02per pick | 62cpaid | +8.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2a87…a55abacked Yes | 25c | 181.57$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$135.51 | 1,112 | 35.1%390 W · 722 L | -13.2wins | -0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa054…a95dbacked No | 72c | 171.94$124 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$124.12 | 399 | 66.2%264 W · 135 L | +33.6wins | +0.08per pick | 58cpaid | +20.8%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x044f…d1f1backed No | 51c | 167.95$86 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$85.93 | 8,162 | 49.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L | +269.7wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1fd2…b7f8backed Yes | 35c | 160.23$57 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$103.51 | 270 | 47%127 W · 143 L | +4.5wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x726e…aafbbacked Yes | 75c | 142.06$106 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.18 | 232 | 69%160 W · 72 L | +23.7wins | +0.10per pick | 59cpaid | +27.2%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xaa93…0bc7backed Yes | 28c | 139$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$100.08 | 3,859 | 23.4%903 W · 2,956 L | +128.4wins | +0.03per pick | 20cpaid | +10%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x60d8…f2a6backed Yes | 24c | 138.83$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$105.08 | 378 | 35.4%134 W · 244 L | +10.5wins | +0.03per pick | 33cpaid | +10.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1f10…9059backed Yes | 37c | 135.02$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$85.02 | 14 | 35.7%5 W · 9 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 35cpaid | -38.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2a04…c853backed Yes | 78c | 132.7$104 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.75 | 34 | 50%17 W · 17 L | +1.5wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb49f…1821backed No | 68c | 130.26$89 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$88.81 | 1,061 | 53.2%564 W · 497 L | +33.5wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc120…a7e3backed No | 57c | 125.38$72 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$71.95 | 1,299 | 54.1%703 W · 596 L | +24.7wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd1a6…1507backed No | 56c | 124.9$69 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$69.45 | 2,626 | 54%1,418 W · 1,208 L | -56.4wins | -0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -19.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6973…b296backed Yes | 37c | 121.9$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$76.73 | 137 | 28.5%39 W · 98 L | +10.4wins | +0.08per pick | 21cpaid | +52.4%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x8b5d…57d3backed Yes | 41c | 117.86$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$69.98 | 743 | 38.2%284 W · 459 L | +17.8wins | +0.02per pick | 36cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5b11…2976backed Yes | 30c | 116.62$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$81.62 | 499 | 41.7%208 W · 291 L | -2.2wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6a8d…50f9backed Yes | 31c | 116.34$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$80.79 | 9,799 | 44.6%4,367 W · 5,432 L | +256.4wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa159…ac8ebacked Yes | 22c | 113.64$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$88.64 | 32 | 15.6%5 W · 27 L | -1.1wins | -0.04per pick | 19cpaid | -31.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe272…ac63backed Yes | 40c | 111.48$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$66.9 | 205 | 34.1%70 W · 135 L | +10.6wins | +0.05per pick | 29cpaid | +31.5%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa98a…a5a8backed No | 69c | 108.53$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75.24 | 2,015 | 67.7%1,365 W · 650 L | +1.8wins | 0.00per pick | 68cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xeaf6…0f8abacked No | 50c | 100$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 21 | 38.1%8 W · 13 L | -3.0wins | -0.14per pick | 52cpaid | -40.7%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x256a…c1fbbacked Yes | 28c | 100$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$72.25 | 56 | 35.7%20 W · 36 L | +2.5wins | +0.04per pick | 31cpaid | +32.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5f88…da69backed Yes | 48c | 99.99$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52 | 179 | 49.2%88 W · 91 L | -3.5wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2acf…f9bbbacked Yes | 30c | 95$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$66.06 | 1,227 | 33.9%416 W · 811 L | +45.1wins | +0.04per pick | 30cpaid | +10.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcd9b…492abacked No | 75c | 94.2$71 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$71.1 | 173 | 65.3%113 W · 60 L | -2.5wins | -0.01per pick | 67cpaid | -2.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8f34…2f50backed No | 60c | 93.77$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.38 | 4,120 | 60.8%2,506 W · 1,614 L | +32.7wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeb7f…0abbbacked Yes | 65c | 93.2$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.99 | 189 | 48.1%91 W · 98 L | -3.0wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -10.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3d1d…9e61backed No | 54c | 89.31$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.4 | 2,870 | 64.8%1,860 W · 1,010 L | -32.8wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeb54…d452backed No | 68c | 87$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.16 | 4,525 | 65.6%2,967 W · 1,558 L | -134.0wins | -0.03per pick | 69cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6854…67d0backed No | 49c | 85.38$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.07 | 617 | 52.8%326 W · 291 L | -1.5wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6400…331abacked No | 73c | 78.2$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.85 | 424 | 69.1%293 W · 131 L | +8.4wins | +0.02per pick | 67cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x64da…2292backed Yes | 32c | 76.81$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.88 | 58 | 24.1%14 W · 44 L | -3.8wins | -0.06per pick | 31cpaid | -23.8%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xea4a…39c8backed Yes | 46c | 76.72$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.13 | 223 | 35.9%80 W · 143 L | +5.3wins | +0.02per pick | 33cpaid | +9.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcb26…0e22backed No | 50c | 73$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.38 | 391 | 57%223 W · 168 L | -6.0wins | -0.02per pick | 59cpaid | -9.3%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0f60…026abacked No | 68c | 71.24$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.44 | 999 | 63.5%634 W · 365 L | -3.0wins | 0.00per pick | 64cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfa28…c37ebacked Yes | 36c | 70.55$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.94 | 3,939 | 35.3%1,392 W · 2,547 L | +35.4wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x02c7…a28dbacked Yes | 68c | 68.35$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.89 | 26 | 53.8%14 W · 12 L | +2.5wins | +0.10per pick | 44cpaid | +41.1%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1a92…35bcbacked Yes | 51c | 66$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.34 | 449 | 45.9%206 W · 243 L | +10.2wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x86da…1cf6backed Yes | 46c | 65.27$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.94 | 153 | 45.8%70 W · 83 L | -2.1wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2b59…9db6backed No | 42c | 65.2$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.14 | 1,901 | 55.6%1,057 W · 844 L | +7.7wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9155…4511backed Yes | 31c | 65$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.85 | 11 | 36.4%4 W · 7 L | +0.7wins | +0.07per pick | 30cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6bee…7e78backed Yes | 26c | 63.83$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.38 | 1,076 | 23.5%253 W · 823 L | +69.1wins | +0.06per pick | 17cpaid | +14.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x8c99…3ef0backed No | 76c | 62.01$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.07 | 89 | 55.1%49 W · 40 L | -2.0wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xef14…3edabacked Yes | 28c | 61.1$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.8 | 177 | 44.6%79 W · 98 L | -10.1wins | -0.06per pick | 50cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd658…2003backed Yes | 50c | 60$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.50per pick | 50cpaid | +100%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xedbd…dd60backed No | 50c | 59.68$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.62 | 3,301 | 65%2,147 W · 1,154 L | -38.5wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7a30…37a6backed Yes | 35c | 57.14$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.14 | 409 | 35%143 W · 266 L | -3.9wins | -0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x108a…8159backed No | 24c | 56.86$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.46 | 587 | 32.9%193 W · 394 L | +34.4wins | +0.06per pick | 27cpaid | +15.4%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2e6f…8cfcbacked Yes | 35c | 55.42$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.92 | 197 | 34%67 W · 130 L | +2.5wins | +0.01per pick | 33cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd78c…a66ebacked Yes | 22c | 54.23$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.3 | 728 | 37.8%275 W · 453 L | -12.0wins | -0.02per pick | 39cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x39c0…ae83backed Yes | 30c | 52.65$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.86 | 122 | 23%28 W · 94 L | -4.2wins | -0.03per pick | 26cpaid | -9.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x354d…eb8fbacked Yes | 25c | 50$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.5 | 701 | 33.5%235 W · 466 L | +13.4wins | +0.02per pick | 32cpaid | +7.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2986…b3a9backed No | 30c | 49.99$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 2,995 | 31.4%940 W · 2,055 L | +41.6wins | +0.01per pick | 30cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xec7c…7ad4backed Yes | 51c | 48$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.47 | 190 | 37.4%71 W · 119 L | -0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5e5d…9491backed No | 74c | 47.3$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35 | 308 | 59.1%182 W · 126 L | -10.3wins | -0.03per pick | 62cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3334…69b0backed Yes | 38c | 46.87$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.24 | 464 | 44.4%206 W · 258 L | -18.2wins | -0.04per pick | 48cpaid | -12.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb732…6900backed No | 72c | 46$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.08 | 412 | 58.3%240 W · 172 L | -2.3wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x671a…2f1ebacked No | 34c | 45$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.3 | 175 | 70.3%123 W · 52 L | +9.9wins | +0.06per pick | 65cpaid | +12.2%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0450…bd51backed No | 51c | 44.5$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.47 | 26 | 53.8%14 W · 12 L | +1.1wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | +16.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xda63…8969backed Yes | 26c | 44.41$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.95 | 99 | 29.3%29 W · 70 L | -1.1wins | -0.01per pick | 30cpaid | -12.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2b3d…4785backed Yes | 35c | 42.86$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.86 | 25 | 56%14 W · 11 L | +2.8wins | +0.11per pick | 45cpaid | +14.8%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xeab6…d4c6backed Yes | 77c | 40.66$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.48 | 841 | 24%202 W · 639 L | -35.9wins | -0.04per pick | 28cpaid | -42.3%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x510f…a43cbacked Yes | 70c | 39.59$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.92 | 3,474 | 33.9%1,177 W · 2,297 L | -175.6wins | -0.05per pick | 39cpaid | -28.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0619…0379backed No | 71c | 37$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.27 | 548 | 57.5%315 W · 233 L | +13.1wins | +0.02per pick | 55cpaid | +3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3f0b…d571backed Yes | 54c | 36.79$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.79 | 2,225 | 49.2%1,094 W · 1,131 L | -12.0wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7cf7…3c63backed Yes | 37c | 34$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.33 | 23 | 60.9%14 W · 9 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 61cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa376…2a72backed Yes | 51c | 33.33$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.33 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.49per pick | 51cpaid | +96%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2ffd…e7c6backed No | 45c | 33.31$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.99 | 516 | 31.6%163 W · 353 L | -29.4wins | -0.06per pick | 37cpaid | -18.5%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xaad7…cf8fbacked No | 76c | 32.89$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 861 | 73.2%630 W · 231 L | +13.2wins | +0.02per pick | 72cpaid | +1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbb7a…ed18backed No | 37c | 32.23$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 1,544 | 16.3%252 W · 1,292 L | +21.9wins | +0.01per pick | 15cpaid | +10.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 51c | 31.61$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.2 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x6f0b…8202backed Yes | 55c | 30.82$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.82 | 104 | 41.3%43 W · 61 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc40b…dc70backed No | 68c | 30.45$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.8 | 52 | 46.2%24 W · 28 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcf70…8f19backed Yes | 50c | 30.24$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.24 | 139 | 41.7%58 W · 81 L | -2.6wins | -0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5566…7c29backed No | 54c | 30$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.1 | 284 | 56%159 W · 125 L | -4.8wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x764b…6badbacked No | 70c | 30$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.04 | 3,755 | 61.1%2,293 W · 1,462 L | -36.5wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x79b6…e042backed No | 37c | 30$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 445 | 53.3%237 W · 208 L | -21.2wins | -0.05per pick | 58cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9fbf…f003backed Yes | 53c | 27.7$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.1 | 306 | 52.6%161 W · 145 L | +10.8wins | +0.04per pick | 49cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x35c4…d144backed Yes | 72c | 26.84$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.52 | 1,255 | 62.5%785 W · 470 L | +99.5wins | +0.08per pick | 55cpaid | +16.8%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x98d9…2c8cbacked Yes | 75c | 26.49$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.49 | 576 | 59%340 W · 236 L | -17.2wins | -0.03per pick | 62cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdd7a…7bfbbacked Yes | 53c | 24$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.28 | 4,961 | 68.3%3,386 W · 1,575 L | +65.6wins | +0.01per pick | 67cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb06a…52f5backed Yes | 48c | 21$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.92 | 5,832 | 36.7%2,138 W · 3,694 L | +211.1wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | -24.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x429c…5f41backed Yes | 55c | 20.41$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.18 | 107 | 45.8%49 W · 58 L | -7.4wins | -0.07per pick | 53cpaid | -13.4%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe34d…41f0backed Yes | 55c | 20.32$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.07 | 121 | 47.9%58 W · 63 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x65b7…ee5dbacked Yes | 51c | 20$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.8 | 61 | 44.3%27 W · 34 L | +3.5wins | +0.06per pick | 39cpaid | +21.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x81b2…cf28backed No | 72c | 20$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.4 | 13 | 61.5%8 W · 5 L | -1.8wins | -0.13per pick | 75cpaid | -21.3%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0b42…9fc4backed Yes | 71c | 19.57$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.68 | 259 | 46.3%120 W · 139 L | +11.0wins | +0.04per pick | 42cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1b78…e589backed Yes | 54c | 19$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.74 | 379 | 42.5%161 W · 218 L | -3.0wins | -0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -8.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2155…3428backed No | 69c | 18.15$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.6 | 188 | 45.2%85 W · 103 L | -7.3wins | -0.04per pick | 49cpaid | -17.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6fd4…5cfcbacked No | 59c | 17.15$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.16 | 572 | 64.5%369 W · 203 L | -10.5wins | -0.02per pick | 66cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x85c8…80f8backed No | 74c | 14.96$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.02 | 391 | 58.1%227 W · 164 L | -1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 58cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Munich be 24°C on May 4?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Munich be 22°C on May 4?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Munich be 23°C on May 4?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Munich be 25°C on May 4?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Munich be 26°C or higher on May 4?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.