Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in London be 20°C on August 21?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x42bca0db26fbc4cc882d22ebe282df1fcab08c307f63c853bceb417630238e9d
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $15,385
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $17,389
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $15,385 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 29 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x15ce…d5fabacked Yes | 11c | 1,196$127 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$126.93 | 483 | 31.3%151 W · 332 L | +20.4wins | +0.04per pick | 27cpaid | +90.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7331…bc39backed Yes | 15c | 750$115 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$114.89 | 94 | 25.5%24 W · 70 L | +5.6wins | +0.06per pick | 20cpaid | +30.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x710b…a42dbacked Yes | 11c | 625.21$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65.93 | 203 | 27.1%55 W · 148 L | +10.2wins | +0.05per pick | 22cpaid | +13.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed Yes | 11c | 434.1$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.63 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xaf17…5c20backed Yes | 13c | 377.69$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.33 | 1,787 | 25.7%460 W · 1,327 L | +132.5wins | +0.07per pick | 18cpaid | +50.8%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xb20f…5737backed Yes | 16c | 312.26$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 55 | 25.5%14 W · 41 L | -3.6wins | -0.07per pick | 32cpaid | -20.9%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x79c9…b2f1backed Yes | 11c | 299.99$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.2 | 173 | 10.4%18 W · 155 L | -1.4wins | -0.01per pick | 11cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbee8…15bebacked Yes | 12c | 264.99$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.18 | 84 | 21.4%18 W · 66 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 21cpaid | -45.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1fd2…b7f8backed Yes | 11c | 263.86$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.93 | 270 | 47%127 W · 143 L | +4.5wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd3b4…73cdbacked Yes | 20c | 242$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.4 | 631 | 43.1%272 W · 359 L | -14.0wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xca1f…d282backed Yes | 12c | 208$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.96 | 1,722 | 64%1,102 W · 620 L | -10.1wins | -0.01per pick | 65cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc651…895bbacked Yes | 9c | 200.92$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.08 | 18 | 33.3%6 W · 12 L | -0.6wins | -0.04per pick | 37cpaid | +22.2%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfa01…9eedbacked Yes | 11c | 199.99$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.5 | 157 | 17.2%27 W · 130 L | +5.4wins | +0.03per pick | 14cpaid | -6.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd394…7e90backed Yes | 6c | 182.72$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.28 | 32 | 15.6%5 W · 27 L | +3.2wins | +0.10per pick | 6cpaid | +141.7%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf971…0a57backed Yes | 20c | 175.99$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.7 | 618 | 21.2%131 W · 487 L | -34.2wins | -0.06per pick | 27cpaid | -48.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc5ee…807abacked No | 80c | 172.22$138 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.44 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | -1.5wins | -0.17per pick | 73cpaid | -24.3%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6297…517ebacked Yes | 7c | 144.99$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.5 | 1,643 | 27.8%456 W · 1,187 L | +117.6wins | +0.07per pick | 21cpaid | +33%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x95d3…6effbacked Yes | 16c | 125.81$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.08 | 317 | 48.6%154 W · 163 L | +16.0wins | +0.05per pick | 44cpaid | +4.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x73e7…8b59backed Yes | 14c | 114.99$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.1 | 434 | 41.5%180 W · 254 L | +29.3wins | +0.07per pick | 35cpaid | +12.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x3271…cd33backed Yes | 9c | 114$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.06 | 135 | 31.1%42 W · 93 L | +8.7wins | +0.06per pick | 25cpaid | +13.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x36cb…63d0backed Yes | 10c | 100$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 15 | 26.7%4 W · 11 L | +0.7wins | +0.05per pick | 22cpaid | +9.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe58b…d6f5backed Yes | 13c | 81.7$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.34 | 36 | 30.6%11 W · 25 L | +0.9wins | +0.02per pick | 28cpaid | +20.4%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1b72…42b9backed Yes | 16c | 73$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.68 | 807 | 35.4%286 W · 521 L | +1.7wins | 0.00per pick | 35cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x52eb…67acbacked No | 79c | 71$56 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.91 | 4,988 | 49.8%2,485 W · 2,503 L | -155.4wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1d69…7a63backed No | 79c | 50$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.5 | 1,075 | 54.8%589 W · 486 L | -17.0wins | -0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdd23…fababacked Yes | 20c | 50$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 157 | 22.9%36 W · 121 L | -1.4wins | -0.01per pick | 24cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaa51…6199backed No | 80c | 25$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5 | 622 | 75.2%468 W · 154 L | +15.5wins | +0.02per pick | 73cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4374…3d05backed No | 80c | 18$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.6 | 341 | 51.3%175 W · 166 L | -26.9wins | -0.08per pick | 59cpaid | -16.1%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x0036…df65backed No | 79c | 18$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.78 | 197 | 37.1%73 W · 124 L | -10.3wins | -0.05per pick | 42cpaid | -17.8%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in London be 20°C on August 21?this page
- Will the highest temperature in London be 19°C on August 21?No won
- Will the highest temperature in London be 21°C on August 21?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in London be 22°C on August 21?No won
- Will the highest temperature in London be 23°C on August 21?No won
- Will the highest temperature in London be 24°C on August 21?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.