Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in London be 22°C on August 21?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x8c71d6295fcd177867f83387e7097c1c482cb4df59caab06af98b0072fe629ff
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $15,419
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $15,339
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $15,419 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 120 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x1a81…6cf9backed Yes | 34c | 2,905$993 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$993.47 | 95 | 18.9%18 W · 77 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 19cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xafde…3e1dbacked Yes | 37c | 793.44$296 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$295.54 | 1,331 | 20.8%277 W · 1,054 L | +33.9wins | +0.03per pick | 18cpaid | -19%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x180e…29dfbacked Yes | 28c | 579.69$162 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$162.44 | 508 | 60.4%307 W · 201 L | +18.3wins | +0.04per pick | 57cpaid | +9.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbbb7…a11abacked No | 66c | 511$339 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$172.34 | 1,196 | 57.9%693 W · 503 L | +47.6wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x30fb…7db4backed No | 67c | 472.94$316 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$156.57 | 4,117 | 47.6%1,958 W · 2,159 L | -158.0wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe40a…e4a2backed No | 68c | 448.93$304 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$144.8 | 1,316 | 56.2%740 W · 576 L | -18.6wins | -0.01per pick | 58cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x52eb…67acbacked No | 66c | 397.63$263 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$134.96 | 4,988 | 49.8%2,485 W · 2,503 L | -155.4wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcd90…4bfcbacked Yes | 30c | 347.89$104 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$103.71 | 577 | 47%271 W · 306 L | +40.0wins | +0.07per pick | 40cpaid | +16.1%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x8e5d…d8b5backed Yes | 30c | 329.79$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 97 | 28.9%28 W · 69 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0380…073dbacked No | 67c | 326.43$217 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$109.28 | 4,257 | 65.3%2,779 W · 1,478 L | +17.6wins | 0.00per pick | 65cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc518…2594backed No | 78c | 256.15$199 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$57.54 | 1,928 | 53.5%1,032 W · 896 L | +39.0wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9506…1c4fbacked No | 62c | 233.46$145 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$88.49 | 815 | 58.5%477 W · 338 L | +12.6wins | +0.02per pick | 57cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7df0…0dfebacked No | 65c | 224.16$147 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$77.59 | 3,642 | 65.9%2,400 W · 1,242 L | +33.6wins | +0.01per pick | 65cpaid | +1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb87f…f7d4backed Yes | 31c | 211.37$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65.52 | 149 | 57.7%86 W · 63 L | +6.1wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6235…7a5ebacked No | 64c | 200$127 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$73 | 10 | 70%7 W · 3 L | +0.4wins | +0.04per pick | 66cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2165…f598backed Yes | 7c | 199.97$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 141 | 13.5%19 W · 122 L | +2.0wins | +0.01per pick | 12cpaid | +5.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcb32…79aabacked No | 64c | 185.73$119 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$66.6 | 1,187 | 62.2%738 W · 449 L | +27.8wins | +0.02per pick | 60cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5b63…11a4backed No | 79c | 184.16$146 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.38 | 471 | 36.5%172 W · 299 L | -21.7wins | -0.05per pick | 41cpaid | -23.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x764b…6badbacked No | 67c | 176.7$118 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58.4 | 3,755 | 61.1%2,293 W · 1,462 L | -36.5wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x58b9…e12fbacked No | 62c | 172.57$106 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$66.29 | 132 | 54.5%72 W · 60 L | +4.1wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1fd2…b7f8backed Yes | 37c | 161.67$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.57 | 270 | 47%127 W · 143 L | +4.5wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 67c | 159.23$107 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.47 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x28ea…7367backed No | 63c | 158.57$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58.67 | 1,896 | 61.5%1,166 W · 730 L | -5.9wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xaf46…1d91backed Yes | 26c | 154.92$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.53 | 72 | 34.7%25 W · 47 L | +2.9wins | +0.04per pick | 31cpaid | -12.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 64c | 154.06$99 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55.04 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 71c | 149.48$106 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.05 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb0c8…fe7fbacked No | 75c | 142.21$107 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.5 | 4,142 | 54.1%2,241 W · 1,901 L | -16.6wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa5cf…39d5backed Yes | 35c | 141.08$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.38 | 231 | 29.4%68 W · 163 L | +4.5wins | +0.02per pick | 27cpaid | +23.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf7aa…ddd6backed No | 68c | 139.3$95 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.78 | 1,274 | 50.9%649 W · 625 L | -35.9wins | -0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -10.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x54ab…c8dfbacked Yes | 32c | 138.15$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.39 | 32 | 53.1%17 W · 15 L | +5.3wins | +0.17per pick | 37cpaid | +60.8%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x18ae…314cbacked Yes | 36c | 138$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.68 | 1,211 | 29.8%361 W · 850 L | -7.6wins | -0.01per pick | 30cpaid | -12.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x005e…6d8ebacked No | 71c | 135.66$96 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.82 | 2,046 | 57%1,167 W · 879 L | +73.4wins | +0.04per pick | 53cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf971…0a57backed No | 66c | 134.26$88 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.11 | 618 | 21.2%131 W · 487 L | -34.2wins | -0.06per pick | 27cpaid | -48.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf216…4844backed No | 74c | 130.01$97 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.26 | 272 | 46.3%126 W · 146 L | +13.9wins | +0.05per pick | 41cpaid | +13.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8373…f0bcbacked No | 64c | 129$83 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.44 | 178 | 59%105 W · 73 L | +2.7wins | +0.02per pick | 57cpaid | +1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x95d3…6effbacked No | 66c | 128.26$85 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.53 | 317 | 48.6%154 W · 163 L | +16.0wins | +0.05per pick | 44cpaid | +4.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd7c2…e1e0backed Yes | 31c | 127.6$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.56 | 172 | 51.7%89 W · 83 L | +3.5wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x79d9…9275backed No | 62c | 121.61$75 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.81 | 385 | 60.3%232 W · 153 L | -5.4wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x33ab…149bbacked No | 65c | 120.41$78 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.14 | 205 | 69.8%143 W · 62 L | +9.0wins | +0.04per pick | 65cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb2e4…b7f1backed No | 79c | 118.29$93 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.03 | 2,065 | 56.3%1,163 W · 902 L | +56.7wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf512…0985backed No | 65c | 118.22$77 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.11 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x32a7…a84bbacked Yes | 33c | 118.09$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.51 | 207 | 39.1%81 W · 126 L | +2.5wins | +0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8593…82f5backed Yes | 35c | 114.32$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.03 | 83 | 37.3%31 W · 52 L | +6.0wins | +0.07per pick | 30cpaid | +37.1%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x3653…ef74backed No | 65c | 114.07$75 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.56 | 2,124 | 57.4%1,220 W · 904 L | +69.9wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2ca1…fc25backed Yes | 26c | 110.5$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.25 | 17 | 35.3%6 W · 11 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1abc…45e7backed No | 70c | 108.29$76 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.18 | 2,099 | 58.3%1,224 W · 875 L | +83.2wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd881…40cdbacked Yes | 33c | 105.27$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.74 | 72 | 51.4%37 W · 35 L | -6.6wins | -0.09per pick | 60cpaid | -12.8%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xae91…e382backed Yes | 39c | 103.39$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 48 | 52.1%25 W · 23 L | -3.2wins | -0.07per pick | 59cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xeaa9…1737backed No | 64c | 101$65 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.36 | 1,126 | 51.2%577 W · 549 L | -21.2wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbee8…15bebacked Yes | 37c | 100.77$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.21 | 84 | 21.4%18 W · 66 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 21cpaid | -45.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1096…a162backed Yes | 30c | 100.2$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.26 | 475 | 38.1%181 W · 294 L | +15.9wins | +0.03per pick | 35cpaid | +7.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9ea2…665abacked Yes | 20c | 100$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 394 | 27.4%108 W · 286 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 27cpaid | -4.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xca1f…d282backed Yes | 25c | 100$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 1,722 | 64%1,102 W · 620 L | -10.1wins | -0.01per pick | 65cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd251…4d37backed No | 66c | 100$66 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34 | 1,697 | 42.4%720 W · 977 L | +56.9wins | +0.03per pick | 39cpaid | +11.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x56e2…4a79backed No | 68c | 99.99$68 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32 | 26 | 30.8%8 W · 18 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 31cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6a8d…50f9backed No | 69c | 98.48$68 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.98 | 9,799 | 44.6%4,367 W · 5,432 L | +256.4wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4add…6fe5backed Yes | 37c | 97.46$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.68 | 1,452 | 36.8%534 W · 918 L | +12.3wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x510f…a43cbacked No | 68c | 93.97$64 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.28 | 3,474 | 33.9%1,177 W · 2,297 L | -175.6wins | -0.05per pick | 39cpaid | -28.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x69f0…fb27backed No | 66c | 93.6$62 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.78 | 2,118 | 58.2%1,233 W · 885 L | +78.8wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4e72…ffb9backed No | 71c | 91.81$65 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.52 | 2,102 | 56.5%1,188 W · 914 L | +61.4wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xced2…0d6bbacked No | 65c | 90.76$59 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.15 | 156 | 69.2%108 W · 48 L | +2.8wins | +0.02per pick | 67cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb3eb…b529backed Yes | 29c | 89.67$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.68 | 616 | 29.4%181 W · 435 L | +7.8wins | +0.01per pick | 28cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x496f…fa5dbacked No | 66c | 88.09$58 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.16 | 4,514 | 52.9%2,389 W · 2,125 L | +47.8wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x09b4…e56dbacked No | 65c | 81$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.35 | 720 | 42.2%304 W · 416 L | +26.5wins | +0.04per pick | 39cpaid | +30.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc85b…ba1bbacked No | 73c | 81$59 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.95 | 190 | 71.6%136 W · 54 L | +5.9wins | +0.03per pick | 68cpaid | +5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4245…a467backed Yes | 29c | 80$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.2 | 607 | 39.7%241 W · 366 L | +27.7wins | +0.05per pick | 35cpaid | +10.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8b8b…2512backed No | 67c | 76.19$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.46 | 2,093 | 57.1%1,196 W · 897 L | +71.9wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xec62…9191backed Yes | 30c | 75.5$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.5 | 1,102 | 40.7%448 W · 654 L | +18.7wins | +0.02per pick | 39cpaid | +3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6bee…7e78backed Yes | 25c | 70.75$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.69 | 1,076 | 23.5%253 W · 823 L | +69.1wins | +0.06per pick | 17cpaid | +14.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x88e0…ceeebacked Yes | 34c | 70$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.8 | 73 | 45.2%33 W · 40 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xaff9…64ffbacked Yes | 35c | 69$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.15 | 2,674 | 30%803 W · 1,871 L | +5.4wins | 0.00per pick | 30cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9b12…c2d5backed No | 67c | 68.85$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.45 | 2,090 | 56.7%1,186 W · 904 L | +60.1wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xee25…63ccbacked No | 66c | 64.1$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.59 | 200 | 56.5%113 W · 87 L | -1.9wins | -0.01per pick | 57cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd456…63a4backed Yes | 32c | 61.61$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 42 | 47.6%20 W · 22 L | +2.7wins | +0.06per pick | 41cpaid | +14%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb576…d959backed Yes | 33c | 60$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.8 | 77 | 33.8%26 W · 51 L | -4.7wins | -0.06per pick | 40cpaid | -26.9%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1f85…7b02backed No | 65c | 59.49$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.61 | 2,068 | 55.9%1,156 W · 912 L | +44.2wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x122c…fbedbacked Yes | 24c | 59.38$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.35 | 771 | 51%393 W · 378 L | +23.7wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9c90…17efbacked No | 78c | 56.29$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.66 | 288 | 47.2%136 W · 152 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x28bf…4a4ebacked No | 65c | 56$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.54 | 5,389 | 56%3,017 W · 2,372 L | -120.8wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xab2d…b1aabacked No | 71c | 55$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.95 | 27 | 37%10 W · 17 L | -4.3wins | -0.16per pick | 53cpaid | -28.4%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed No | 63c | 52.64$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.64 | 5,897 | 49.4%2,913 W · 2,984 L | -103.3wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x550e…94dbbacked Yes | 38c | 49.19$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.64 | 37 | 40.5%15 W · 22 L | +3.1wins | +0.08per pick | 32cpaid | +20.2%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1d69…7a63backed No | 72c | 48.45$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.57 | 1,075 | 54.8%589 W · 486 L | -17.0wins | -0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x754b…d06abacked No | 65c | 48.26$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.89 | 212 | 72.6%154 W · 58 L | +22.8wins | +0.11per pick | 62cpaid | +21.6%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x16c7…22cdbacked No | 68c | 46.86$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.8 | 2,075 | 58.9%1,223 W · 852 L | +102.1wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3e4b…48bdbacked Yes | 27c | 46.65$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.5 | 45 | 40%18 W · 27 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 41cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfbd8…4027backed No | 68c | 46$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.86 | 5,631 | 59.9%3,374 W · 2,257 L | -111.1wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1201…005bbacked Yes | 29c | 45.15$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.09 | 167 | 9.6%16 W · 151 L | -1.9wins | -0.01per pick | 11cpaid | -32.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xac64…866ebacked No | 69c | 44.72$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.08 | 710 | 57.9%411 W · 299 L | +1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 58cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2d0f…81aabacked No | 72c | 42.99$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.12 | 270 | 79.3%214 W · 56 L | +52.5wins | +0.19per pick | 60cpaid | +30.3%equal weight | 70+0.18 edge/pick |
| 0xd717…3b85backed No | 65c | 42.59$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.95 | 2,050 | 57.4%1,177 W · 873 L | +72.2wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xaa51…6199backed No | 72c | 41.49$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.49 | 622 | 75.2%468 W · 154 L | +15.5wins | +0.02per pick | 73cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaa28…090bbacked Yes | 27c | 40.88$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.19 | 2,239 | 15%335 W · 1,904 L | +54.6wins | +0.02per pick | 13cpaid | +24%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x06f0…e0fcbacked No | 65c | 40$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.85 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +0.6wins | +0.12per pick | 68cpaid | +13.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf51b…ca1bbacked Yes | 31c | 36.62$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.52 | 1,274 | 34%433 W · 841 L | +46.9wins | +0.04per pick | 30cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbf13…b91abacked Yes | 29c | 36.29$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.45 | 264 | 42.4%112 W · 152 L | +12.8wins | +0.05per pick | 38cpaid | +16.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0036…df65backed No | 65c | 36.03$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.66 | 197 | 37.1%73 W · 124 L | -10.3wins | -0.05per pick | 42cpaid | -17.8%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xaff9…8e3cbacked No | 72c | 34.28$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.6 | 78 | 62.8%49 W · 29 L | -3.1wins | -0.04per pick | 67cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xeb68…e362backed No | 67c | 33.13$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.08 | 2,118 | 59.1%1,251 W · 867 L | +107.9wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xbfa2…b5cebacked No | 65c | 30.77$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.77 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.30per pick | 70cpaid | +43.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in London be 22°C on August 21?this page
- Will the highest temperature in London be 19°C on August 21?No won
- Will the highest temperature in London be 20°C on August 21?No won
- Will the highest temperature in London be 21°C on August 21?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in London be 23°C on August 21?No won
- Will the highest temperature in London be 24°C on August 21?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.