TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Weather · resolved market

Will the highest temperature in London be 22°C on August 21?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Noof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$15,419
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$15,339

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $15,419 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 120 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Weather
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x1a81…6cf9backed Yes34c2,905$993 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$993.479518.9%18 W · 77 L+0.4wins0.00per pick19cpaid+1.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xafde…3e1dbacked Yes37c793.44$296 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$295.541,33120.8%277 W · 1,054 L+33.9wins+0.03per pick18cpaid-19%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x180e…29dfbacked Yes28c579.69$162 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$162.4450860.4%307 W · 201 L+18.3wins+0.04per pick57cpaid+9.2%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xbbb7…a11abacked No66c511$339 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$172.341,19657.9%693 W · 503 L+47.6wins+0.04per pick54cpaid+6.9%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x30fb…7db4backed No67c472.94$316 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$156.574,11747.6%1,958 W · 2,159 L-158.0wins-0.04per pick51cpaid-12.4%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xe40a…e4a2backed No68c448.93$304 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$144.81,31656.2%740 W · 576 L-18.6wins-0.01per pick58cpaid-10.2%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x52eb…67acbacked No66c397.63$263 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$134.964,98849.8%2,485 W · 2,503 L-155.4wins-0.03per pick53cpaid-9.9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xcd90…4bfcbacked Yes30c347.89$104 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$103.7157747%271 W · 306 L+40.0wins+0.07per pick40cpaid+16.1%equal weight57+0.07 edge/pick
0x8e5d…d8b5backed Yes30c329.79$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1009728.9%28 W · 69 L+0.3wins0.00per pick29cpaid-1.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0380…073dbacked No67c326.43$217 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$109.284,25765.3%2,779 W · 1,478 L+17.6wins0.00per pick65cpaid+1.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc518…2594backed No78c256.15$199 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$57.541,92853.5%1,032 W · 896 L+39.0wins+0.02per pick52cpaid+2.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x9506…1c4fbacked No62c233.46$145 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$88.4981558.5%477 W · 338 L+12.6wins+0.02per pick57cpaid+3.8%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x7df0…0dfebacked No65c224.16$147 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$77.593,64265.9%2,400 W · 1,242 L+33.6wins+0.01per pick65cpaid+1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xb87f…f7d4backed Yes31c211.37$66 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$65.5214957.7%86 W · 63 L+6.1wins+0.04per pick54cpaid+7%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x6235…7a5ebacked No64c200$127 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$731070%7 W · 3 L+0.4wins+0.04per pick66cpaid+2.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x2165…f598backed Yes7c199.97$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1414113.5%19 W · 122 L+2.0wins+0.01per pick12cpaid+5.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xcb32…79aabacked No64c185.73$119 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$66.61,18762.2%738 W · 449 L+27.8wins+0.02per pick60cpaid-2.1%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x5b63…11a4backed No79c184.16$146 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$38.3847136.5%172 W · 299 L-21.7wins-0.05per pick41cpaid-23.4%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x764b…6badbacked No67c176.7$118 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$58.43,75561.1%2,293 W · 1,462 L-36.5wins-0.01per pick62cpaid-2.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x58b9…e12fbacked No62c172.57$106 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$66.2913254.5%72 W · 60 L+4.1wins+0.03per pick51cpaid+6.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x1fd2…b7f8backed Yes37c161.67$60 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$59.5727047%127 W · 143 L+4.5wins+0.02per pick45cpaid+5.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xb40e…7cc9backed No67c159.23$107 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$52.4712,49819.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L-2,667.3wins-0.21per pick41cpaid-66.8%equal weight26-0.21 edge/pick
0x28ea…7367backed No63c158.57$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$58.671,89661.5%1,166 W · 730 L-5.9wins0.00per pick62cpaid-0.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xaf46…1d91backed Yes26c154.92$41 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$40.537234.7%25 W · 47 L+2.9wins+0.04per pick31cpaid-12.2%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xa3e2…fdf8backed No64c154.06$99 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$55.049,49045.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L-278.5wins-0.03per pick49cpaid-10.2%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xc34f…7d2ebacked No71c149.48$106 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$43.0512,17346.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L-42.2wins0.00per pick47cpaid-13.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb0c8…fe7fbacked No75c142.21$107 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$35.54,14254.1%2,241 W · 1,901 L-16.6wins0.00per pick55cpaid-10.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa5cf…39d5backed Yes35c141.08$49 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$49.3823129.4%68 W · 163 L+4.5wins+0.02per pick27cpaid+23.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xf7aa…ddd6backed No68c139.3$95 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$44.781,27450.9%649 W · 625 L-35.9wins-0.03per pick54cpaid-10.8%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x54ab…c8dfbacked Yes32c138.15$44 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$44.393253.1%17 W · 15 L+5.3wins+0.17per pick37cpaid+60.8%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0x18ae…314cbacked Yes36c138$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$49.681,21129.8%361 W · 850 L-7.6wins-0.01per pick30cpaid-12.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x005e…6d8ebacked No71c135.66$96 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$39.822,04657%1,167 W · 879 L+73.4wins+0.04per pick53cpaid-1.7%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xf971…0a57backed No66c134.26$88 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$46.1161821.2%131 W · 487 L-34.2wins-0.06per pick27cpaid-48.4%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xf216…4844backed No74c130.01$97 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$33.2627246.3%126 W · 146 L+13.9wins+0.05per pick41cpaid+13.6%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x8373…f0bcbacked No64c129$83 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$46.4417859%105 W · 73 L+2.7wins+0.02per pick57cpaid+1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x95d3…6effbacked No66c128.26$85 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$43.5331748.6%154 W · 163 L+16.0wins+0.05per pick44cpaid+4.9%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xd7c2…e1e0backed Yes31c127.6$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$39.5617251.7%89 W · 83 L+3.5wins+0.02per pick50cpaid+1.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x79d9…9275backed No62c121.61$75 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$46.8138560.3%232 W · 153 L-5.4wins-0.01per pick62cpaid-2.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x33ab…149bbacked No65c120.41$78 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$42.1420569.8%143 W · 62 L+9.0wins+0.04per pick65cpaid+7.6%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xb2e4…b7f1backed No79c118.29$93 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$25.032,06556.3%1,163 W · 902 L+56.7wins+0.03per pick54cpaid-4.7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xf512…0985backed No65c118.22$77 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$41.11560%3 W · 2 L+0.1wins+0.02per pick58cpaid-3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x32a7…a84bbacked Yes33c118.09$39 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$38.5120739.1%81 W · 126 L+2.5wins+0.01per pick38cpaid-0.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x8593…82f5backed Yes35c114.32$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$40.038337.3%31 W · 52 L+6.0wins+0.07per pick30cpaid+37.1%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x3653…ef74backed No65c114.07$75 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$39.562,12457.4%1,220 W · 904 L+69.9wins+0.03per pick54cpaid-2.7%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x2ca1…fc25backed Yes26c110.5$29 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$29.251735.3%6 W · 11 L+0.2wins+0.01per pick34cpaid-7.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x1abc…45e7backed No70c108.29$76 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$32.182,09958.3%1,224 W · 875 L+83.2wins+0.04per pick54cpaid+0.5%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xd881…40cdbacked Yes33c105.27$35 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$34.747251.4%37 W · 35 L-6.6wins-0.09per pick60cpaid-12.8%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0xae91…e382backed Yes39c103.39$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$404852.1%25 W · 23 L-3.2wins-0.07per pick59cpaid-7.3%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xeaa9…1737backed No64c101$65 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$36.361,12651.2%577 W · 549 L-21.2wins-0.02per pick53cpaid-3.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xbee8…15bebacked Yes37c100.77$37 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$37.218421.4%18 W · 66 L+0.3wins0.00per pick21cpaid-45.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1096…a162backed Yes30c100.2$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30.2647538.1%181 W · 294 L+15.9wins+0.03per pick35cpaid+7.2%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x9ea2…665abacked Yes20c100$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2039427.4%108 W · 286 L0.0wins0.00per pick27cpaid-4.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xca1f…d282backed Yes25c100$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$251,72264%1,102 W · 620 L-10.1wins-0.01per pick65cpaid+1.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xd251…4d37backed No66c100$66 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$341,69742.4%720 W · 977 L+56.9wins+0.03per pick39cpaid+11.6%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x56e2…4a79backed No68c99.99$68 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$322630.8%8 W · 18 L-0.2wins-0.01per pick31cpaid+1.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6a8d…50f9backed No69c98.48$68 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$30.989,79944.6%4,367 W · 5,432 L+256.4wins+0.03per pick42cpaid+12.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x4add…6fe5backed Yes37c97.46$36 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$35.681,45236.8%534 W · 918 L+12.3wins+0.01per pick36cpaid-0.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x510f…a43cbacked No68c93.97$64 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$30.283,47433.9%1,177 W · 2,297 L-175.6wins-0.05per pick39cpaid-28.4%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x69f0…fb27backed No66c93.6$62 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$31.782,11858.2%1,233 W · 885 L+78.8wins+0.04per pick54cpaid-3%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x4e72…ffb9backed No71c91.81$65 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$26.522,10256.5%1,188 W · 914 L+61.4wins+0.03per pick54cpaid-3.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xced2…0d6bbacked No65c90.76$59 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$32.1515669.2%108 W · 48 L+2.8wins+0.02per pick67cpaid+3.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xb3eb…b529backed Yes29c89.67$26 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25.6861629.4%181 W · 435 L+7.8wins+0.01per pick28cpaid+6.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x496f…fa5dbacked No66c88.09$58 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$30.164,51452.9%2,389 W · 2,125 L+47.8wins+0.01per pick52cpaid+2.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x09b4…e56dbacked No65c81$53 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$28.3572042.2%304 W · 416 L+26.5wins+0.04per pick39cpaid+30.4%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xc85b…ba1bbacked No73c81$59 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$21.9519071.6%136 W · 54 L+5.9wins+0.03per pick68cpaid+5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x4245…a467backed Yes29c80$23 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$23.260739.7%241 W · 366 L+27.7wins+0.05per pick35cpaid+10.1%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x8b8b…2512backed No67c76.19$51 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$25.462,09357.1%1,196 W · 897 L+71.9wins+0.03per pick54cpaid-2.1%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xec62…9191backed Yes30c75.5$23 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$22.51,10240.7%448 W · 654 L+18.7wins+0.02per pick39cpaid+3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x6bee…7e78backed Yes25c70.75$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17.691,07623.5%253 W · 823 L+69.1wins+0.06per pick17cpaid+14.2%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x88e0…ceeebacked Yes34c70$24 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$23.87345.2%33 W · 40 L-0.5wins-0.01per pick46cpaid-8.5%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0xaff9…64ffbacked Yes35c69$24 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$24.152,67430%803 W · 1,871 L+5.4wins0.00per pick30cpaid-0.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9b12…c2d5backed No67c68.85$46 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$22.452,09056.7%1,186 W · 904 L+60.1wins+0.03per pick54cpaid-3.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xee25…63ccbacked No66c64.1$43 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$21.5920056.5%113 W · 87 L-1.9wins-0.01per pick57cpaid-1.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xd456…63a4backed Yes32c61.61$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$204247.6%20 W · 22 L+2.7wins+0.06per pick41cpaid+14%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xb576…d959backed Yes33c60$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.87733.8%26 W · 51 L-4.7wins-0.06per pick40cpaid-26.9%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x1f85…7b02backed No65c59.49$39 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$20.612,06855.9%1,156 W · 912 L+44.2wins+0.02per pick54cpaid-5.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x122c…fbedbacked Yes24c59.38$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.3577151%393 W · 378 L+23.7wins+0.03per pick48cpaid-4.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x9c90…17efbacked No78c56.29$44 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$12.6628847.2%136 W · 152 L+0.4wins0.00per pick47cpaid+3.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x28bf…4a4ebacked No65c56$36 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$19.545,38956%3,017 W · 2,372 L-120.8wins-0.02per pick58cpaid-10.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xab2d…b1aabacked No71c55$39 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$15.952737%10 W · 17 L-4.3wins-0.16per pick53cpaid-28.4%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0x21ff…0d71backed No63c52.64$33 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$19.645,89749.4%2,913 W · 2,984 L-103.3wins-0.02per pick51cpaid-6.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x550e…94dbbacked Yes38c49.19$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18.643740.5%15 W · 22 L+3.1wins+0.08per pick32cpaid+20.2%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x1d69…7a63backed No72c48.45$35 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$13.571,07554.8%589 W · 486 L-17.0wins-0.02per pick56cpaid-2.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x754b…d06abacked No65c48.26$31 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$16.8921272.6%154 W · 58 L+22.8wins+0.11per pick62cpaid+21.6%equal weight61+0.10 edge/pick
0x16c7…22cdbacked No68c46.86$32 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$14.82,07558.9%1,223 W · 852 L+102.1wins+0.05per pick54cpaid+0.9%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x3e4b…48bdbacked Yes27c46.65$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.54540%18 W · 27 L-0.2wins-0.01per pick41cpaid+0.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xfbd8…4027backed No68c46$31 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$14.865,63159.9%3,374 W · 2,257 L-111.1wins-0.02per pick62cpaid-7.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x1201…005bbacked Yes29c45.15$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.091679.6%16 W · 151 L-1.9wins-0.01per pick11cpaid-32.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xac64…866ebacked No69c44.72$31 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$14.0871057.9%411 W · 299 L+1.3wins0.00per pick58cpaid-3.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2d0f…81aabacked No72c42.99$31 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$12.1227079.3%214 W · 56 L+52.5wins+0.19per pick60cpaid+30.3%equal weight70+0.18 edge/pick
0xd717…3b85backed No65c42.59$28 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$14.952,05057.4%1,177 W · 873 L+72.2wins+0.04per pick54cpaid-1.8%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xaa51…6199backed No72c41.49$30 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$11.4962275.2%468 W · 154 L+15.5wins+0.02per pick73cpaid+3.3%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xaa28…090bbacked Yes27c40.88$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.192,23915%335 W · 1,904 L+54.6wins+0.02per pick13cpaid+24%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x06f0…e0fcbacked No65c40$26 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$13.85580%4 W · 1 L+0.6wins+0.12per pick68cpaid+13.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xf51b…ca1bbacked Yes31c36.62$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.521,27434%433 W · 841 L+46.9wins+0.04per pick30cpaid+4.3%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xbf13…b91abacked Yes29c36.29$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.4526442.4%112 W · 152 L+12.8wins+0.05per pick38cpaid+16.7%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x0036…df65backed No65c36.03$23 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$12.6619737.1%73 W · 124 L-10.3wins-0.05per pick42cpaid-17.8%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xaff9…8e3cbacked No72c34.28$25 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9.67862.8%49 W · 29 L-3.1wins-0.04per pick67cpaid-3.6%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xeb68…e362backed No67c33.13$22 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$11.082,11859.1%1,251 W · 867 L+107.9wins+0.05per pick54cpaid+1.3%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xbfa2…b5cebacked No65c30.77$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$10.772100%2 W · 0 L+0.6wins+0.30per pick70cpaid+43.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.