Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in London be 21°C on August 21?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x97d7ddda4820d3826b0b14418158e57ee3f54328419939fafc1cdea56bb1736a
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $15,322
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $17,581
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $15,322 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 133 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xb6fb…c038backed Yes | 40c | 544.44$217 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$327.23 | 439 | 32.8%144 W · 295 L | +20.3wins | +0.05per pick | 28cpaid | +13.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe40a…e4a2backed No | 49c | 492.79$241 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$240.52 | 1,316 | 56.2%740 W · 576 L | -18.6wins | -0.01per pick | 58cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9cfb…decbbacked Yes | 42c | 477.88$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$277.88 | 137 | 46%63 W · 74 L | -3.2wins | -0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed Yes | 39c | 453.58$176 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$277.87 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x122c…fbedbacked No | 48c | 449.14$215 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$215.26 | 771 | 51%393 W · 378 L | +23.7wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7e9c…f3a8backed Yes | 49c | 447.93$221 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$227.43 | 602 | 36.5%220 W · 382 L | -2.4wins | 0.00per pick | 37cpaid | -14.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc944…1686backed No | 12c | 380.91$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.62 | 345 | 33%114 W · 231 L | +20.6wins | +0.06per pick | 27cpaid | +26.3%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed No | 56c | 309.39$174 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$173.85 | 5,897 | 49.4%2,913 W · 2,984 L | -103.3wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc518…2594backed No | 36c | 255.76$92 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$91.76 | 1,928 | 53.5%1,032 W · 896 L | +39.0wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x906f…371abacked No | 58c | 229.84$132 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$132.34 | 2,495 | 69.9%1,744 W · 751 L | +80.3wins | +0.03per pick | 67cpaid | +5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf971…0a57backed No | 48c | 227.49$109 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$109.41 | 618 | 21.2%131 W · 487 L | -34.2wins | -0.06per pick | 27cpaid | -48.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xbbb7…a11abacked No | 60c | 211.37$126 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$126.02 | 1,196 | 57.9%693 W · 503 L | +47.6wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf28c…cdf8backed Yes | 45c | 200$89 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$110.75 | 23 | 47.8%11 W · 12 L | +1.3wins | +0.06per pick | 42cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9418…e9f8backed Yes | 46c | 193.76$90 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$103.78 | 1,108 | 30%332 W · 776 L | -38.1wins | -0.03per pick | 33cpaid | -13.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcb32…79aabacked No | 56c | 191.03$107 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$107.08 | 1,187 | 62.2%738 W · 449 L | +27.8wins | +0.02per pick | 60cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf7aa…ddd6backed No | 56c | 186.47$105 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$104.65 | 1,274 | 50.9%649 W · 625 L | -35.9wins | -0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -10.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x14e2…282fbacked No | 20c | 175.39$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35 | 57 | 36.8%21 W · 36 L | +2.3wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | +26.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9b12…c2d5backed No | 43c | 160.14$69 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$69.41 | 2,090 | 56.7%1,186 W · 904 L | +60.1wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf73f…ee53backed Yes | 40c | 160$64 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$96 | 2,950 | 33.6%992 W · 1,958 L | +9.9wins | 0.00per pick | 33cpaid | +4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x764b…6badbacked No | 52c | 147.35$77 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$77.13 | 3,755 | 61.1%2,293 W · 1,462 L | -36.5wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb0c8…fe7fbacked No | 28c | 141.46$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.79 | 4,142 | 54.1%2,241 W · 1,901 L | -16.6wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7df0…0dfebacked No | 60c | 135.24$81 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$81.36 | 3,642 | 65.9%2,400 W · 1,242 L | +33.6wins | +0.01per pick | 65cpaid | +1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd717…3b85backed No | 48c | 132.48$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64.1 | 2,050 | 57.4%1,177 W · 873 L | +72.2wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8373…f0bcbacked No | 61c | 131.37$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80.16 | 178 | 59%105 W · 73 L | +2.7wins | +0.02per pick | 57cpaid | +1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed No | 41c | 126.17$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.87 | 6,592 | 53.1%3,503 W · 3,089 L | +400.2wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x7956…eba5backed Yes | 43c | 125.71$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$71.71 | 1,048 | 38.1%399 W · 649 L | -3.8wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x16c7…22cdbacked No | 53c | 123.86$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65.21 | 2,075 | 58.9%1,223 W · 852 L | +102.1wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa4fb…32c8backed Yes | 48c | 123.59$59 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$64.86 | 91 | 46.2%42 W · 49 L | -0.8wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa9b7…f43cbacked Yes | 39c | 120.15$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$73.68 | 308 | 34.4%106 W · 202 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 34cpaid | -8.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 51c | 120.1$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61.12 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9ea2…665abacked Yes | 66c | 117$77 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.82 | 394 | 27.4%108 W · 286 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 27cpaid | -4.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x005e…6d8ebacked No | 40c | 112.81$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.38 | 2,046 | 57%1,167 W · 879 L | +73.4wins | +0.04per pick | 53cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2b40…ced4backed No | 29c | 103.21$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.99 | 958 | 52.5%503 W · 455 L | +103.2wins | +0.11per pick | 42cpaid | +9.4%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x5695…60e9backed Yes | 49c | 102.04$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.09 | 192 | 52.1%100 W · 92 L | -2.3wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6a56…be30backed Yes | 39c | 100$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$61 | 464 | 52.2%242 W · 222 L | +16.2wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +11.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4245…a467backed Yes | 36c | 100$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$64 | 607 | 39.7%241 W · 366 L | +27.7wins | +0.05per pick | 35cpaid | +10.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4435…786fbacked No | 58c | 100$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58 | 971 | 52.2%507 W · 464 L | -8.1wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2cad…c773backed No | 63c | 100$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63 | 67 | 50.7%34 W · 33 L | +4.2wins | +0.06per pick | 45cpaid | -19.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe695…538ebacked Yes | 46c | 100$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54 | 818 | 55%450 W · 368 L | +1.5wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x58b9…e12fbacked No | 56c | 100$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56 | 132 | 54.5%72 W · 60 L | +4.1wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x28ea…7367backed Yes | 76c | 98.05$75 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.53 | 1,896 | 61.5%1,166 W · 730 L | -5.9wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xced2…0d6bbacked No | 64c | 96.54$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61.72 | 156 | 69.2%108 W · 48 L | +2.8wins | +0.02per pick | 67cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd456…63a4backed Yes | 42c | 95.5$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55.5 | 42 | 47.6%20 W · 22 L | +2.7wins | +0.06per pick | 41cpaid | +14%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1096…a162backed Yes | 40c | 94.35$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.61 | 475 | 38.1%181 W · 294 L | +15.9wins | +0.03per pick | 35cpaid | +7.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0484…4830backed Yes | 42c | 92.66$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.62 | 5,186 | 47.2%2,447 W · 2,739 L | +66.7wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x496f…fa5dbacked No | 56c | 90.82$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.73 | 4,514 | 52.9%2,389 W · 2,125 L | +47.8wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5c0a…a2c3backed No | 59c | 87.3$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.23 | 1,280 | 51.2%655 W · 625 L | -33.7wins | -0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xebdb…5ac4backed No | 58c | 86.66$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.26 | 850 | 49.8%423 W · 427 L | -10.4wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbee8…15bebacked Yes | 47c | 84.61$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.67 | 84 | 21.4%18 W · 66 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 21cpaid | -45.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x30fb…7db4backed No | 57c | 84.61$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.6 | 4,117 | 47.6%1,958 W · 2,159 L | -158.0wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes | 41c | 82.49$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.67 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3653…ef74backed No | 50c | 79.36$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.75 | 2,124 | 57.4%1,220 W · 904 L | +69.9wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0380…073dbacked No | 59c | 78.11$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.77 | 4,257 | 65.3%2,779 W · 1,478 L | +17.6wins | 0.00per pick | 65cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x69f0…fb27backed No | 44c | 77.26$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.02 | 2,118 | 58.2%1,233 W · 885 L | +78.8wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed Yes | 65c | 76.99$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.81 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x4248…60abbacked Yes | 48c | 75.22$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.35 | 2,219 | 58.7%1,303 W · 916 L | -11.5wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3f30…f8debacked Yes | 44c | 75$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.35 | 3,830 | 47.1%1,805 W · 2,025 L | +63.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf9cc…59abbacked No | 53c | 74.94$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 688 | 67.2%462 W · 226 L | +4.1wins | +0.01per pick | 67cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2d8c…3e30backed Yes | 57c | 73.86$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.86 | 123 | 50.4%62 W · 61 L | -14.7wins | -0.12per pick | 62cpaid | -19.9%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xddc3…000bbacked Yes | 41c | 73.84$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.84 | 98 | 32.7%32 W · 66 L | -2.4wins | -0.02per pick | 35cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb2e4…b7f1backed No | 40c | 73.75$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.25 | 2,065 | 56.3%1,163 W · 902 L | +56.7wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1b72…42b9backed Yes | 41c | 73$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.07 | 807 | 35.4%286 W · 521 L | +1.7wins | 0.00per pick | 35cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4708…9580backed No | 51c | 72.62$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.03 | 104 | 32.7%34 W · 70 L | -3.6wins | -0.03per pick | 36cpaid | -35%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0081…947bbacked No | 61c | 70.18$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.81 | 316 | 49.7%157 W · 159 L | +17.5wins | +0.06per pick | 44cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe040…824fbacked No | 51c | 70$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.4 | 4,267 | 53.4%2,279 W · 1,988 L | +156.0wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2e1f…8fdebacked No | 30c | 70$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21 | 982 | 36.7%360 W · 622 L | +37.9wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | +9.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4add…6fe5backed Yes | 41c | 66.36$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.97 | 1,452 | 36.8%534 W · 918 L | +12.3wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeb68…e362backed No | 45c | 65.69$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.66 | 2,118 | 59.1%1,251 W · 867 L | +107.9wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2e90…c892backed Yes | 77c | 64.55$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.55 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | -0.8wins | -0.08per pick | 53cpaid | -26.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfa28…c37ebacked Yes | 46c | 63$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.93 | 3,939 | 35.3%1,392 W · 2,547 L | +35.4wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1f85…7b02backed No | 52c | 59.64$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.14 | 2,068 | 55.9%1,156 W · 912 L | +44.2wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc4f9…8d24backed Yes | 28c | 59$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.48 | 477 | 38.8%185 W · 292 L | +18.4wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | +11.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xec62…9191backed Yes | 39c | 57.69$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.19 | 1,102 | 40.7%448 W · 654 L | +18.7wins | +0.02per pick | 39cpaid | +3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaf46…1d91backed Yes | 53c | 55.71$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.99 | 72 | 34.7%25 W · 47 L | +2.9wins | +0.04per pick | 31cpaid | -12.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2d0f…81aabacked Yes | 74c | 54$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.06 | 270 | 79.3%214 W · 56 L | +52.5wins | +0.19per pick | 60cpaid | +30.3%equal weight | 70+0.18 edge/pick |
| 0xe188…c1d0backed Yes | 39c | 53.29$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.29 | 78 | 56.4%44 W · 34 L | +7.9wins | +0.10per pick | 46cpaid | +22%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x5e50…11cdbacked Yes | 80c | 52.19$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.49 | 13 | 84.6%11 W · 2 L | +4.1wins | +0.31per pick | 53cpaid | +48.3%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xff74…5de4backed Yes | 39c | 50.66$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.08 | 659 | 34.1%225 W · 434 L | +36.6wins | +0.06per pick | 29cpaid | +18.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x28bf…4a4ebacked No | 63c | 50$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.4 | 5,389 | 56%3,017 W · 2,372 L | -120.8wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8593…82f5backed No | 61c | 49.99$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.5 | 83 | 37.3%31 W · 52 L | +6.0wins | +0.07per pick | 30cpaid | +37.1%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xb074…9fb3backed No | 59c | 49.99$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.49 | 224 | 54.5%122 W · 102 L | +13.2wins | +0.06per pick | 49cpaid | +14.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xac64…866ebacked No | 42c | 49.96$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.07 | 710 | 57.9%411 W · 299 L | +1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 58cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9232…c250backed No | 60c | 49.53$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.56 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -1.2wins | -0.30per pick | 55cpaid | -46.5%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x012f…400dbacked Yes | 37c | 49.24$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.02 | 348 | 31%108 W · 240 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 31cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1225…e17fbacked Yes | 41c | 48.87$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.87 | 165 | 30.9%51 W · 114 L | +9.2wins | +0.06per pick | 25cpaid | +15.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x754b…d06abacked Yes | 41c | 47.2$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.63 | 212 | 72.6%154 W · 58 L | +22.8wins | +0.11per pick | 62cpaid | +21.6%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x8b8b…2512backed No | 44c | 46.9$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.49 | 2,093 | 57.1%1,196 W · 897 L | +71.9wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xaff9…8e3cbacked Yes | 69c | 46.67$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.66 | 78 | 62.8%49 W · 29 L | -3.1wins | -0.04per pick | 67cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfbd8…4027backed No | 54c | 46$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.91 | 5,631 | 59.9%3,374 W · 2,257 L | -111.1wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd38c…8c4dbacked Yes | 79c | 45.7$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.7 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.25per pick | 75cpaid | -36.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9c90…17efbacked No | 66c | 45.47$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.91 | 288 | 47.2%136 W · 152 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa054…a95dbacked Yes | 75c | 45$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.35 | 399 | 66.2%264 W · 135 L | +33.6wins | +0.08per pick | 58cpaid | +20.8%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xf216…4844backed Yes | 62c | 44.8$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.81 | 272 | 46.3%126 W · 146 L | +13.9wins | +0.05per pick | 41cpaid | +13.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x379a…4b1abacked Yes | 42c | 44.44$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.78 | 429 | 48%206 W · 223 L | +8.3wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1abc…45e7backed No | 51c | 43.3$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.05 | 2,099 | 58.3%1,224 W · 875 L | +83.2wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbf13…b91abacked Yes | 41c | 41.58$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.55 | 264 | 42.4%112 W · 152 L | +12.8wins | +0.05per pick | 38cpaid | +16.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x746c…b2e6backed No | 59c | 41.36$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.43 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.11per pick | 44cpaid | +39.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5284…27f5backed No | 51c | 40$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.4 | 182 | 40.1%73 W · 109 L | -16.6wins | -0.09per pick | 49cpaid | -21.6%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x04b3…1b7ebacked No | 50c | 40$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1,385 | 65.8%911 W · 474 L | +62.8wins | +0.05per pick | 61cpaid | +11.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6a43…26babacked Yes | 40c | 40$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24 | 93 | 46.2%43 W · 50 L | +1.9wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | +6.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in London be 21°C on August 21?this page
- Will the highest temperature in London be 19°C on August 21?No won
- Will the highest temperature in London be 20°C on August 21?No won
- Will the highest temperature in London be 22°C on August 21?No won
- Will the highest temperature in London be 23°C on August 21?No won
- Will the highest temperature in London be 24°C on August 21?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.