Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 29°C on May 29?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x42c9da761d02d5e06415b1fee083db764f7c5db365250e5a1db5ad7e9e0e99b4
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $9,907
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $10,064
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $9,907 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 48 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x65b7…3798backed No | 74c | 520.04$387 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$386.97 | 91 | 48.4%44 W · 47 L | +11.5wins | +0.13per pick | 36cpaid | +59.9%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xfd55…f905backed No | 18c | 503.53$89 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$88.62 | 4,547 | 58.4%2,655 W · 1,892 L | -107.5wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3c11…33c9backed No | 63c | 325.35$204 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$204.14 | 896 | 61.7%553 W · 343 L | +15.2wins | +0.02per pick | 60cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed No | 19c | 300.61$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.5 | 6,592 | 53.1%3,503 W · 3,089 L | +400.2wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked Yes | 36c | 293.45$105 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$188.22 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4ce3…4291backed Yes | 32c | 205$66 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$139.35 | 2,165 | 23.8%516 W · 1,649 L | +83.8wins | +0.04per pick | 20cpaid | +14.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa3f0…5cd7backed Yes | 21c | 200$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$158 | 62 | 8.1%5 W · 57 L | -2.1wins | -0.03per pick | 11cpaid | -75.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x204b…75f3backed Yes | 55c | 153.84$85 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$68.78 | 221 | 71%157 W · 64 L | +14.5wins | +0.07per pick | 65cpaid | +12.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1d30…91d6backed Yes | 23c | 139.99$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$108.39 | 172 | 31.4%54 W · 118 L | +1.7wins | +0.01per pick | 30cpaid | +11.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2612…5289backed No | 45c | 130.94$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.71 | 3,048 | 40.5%1,234 W · 1,814 L | -121.5wins | -0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -23.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 20c | 129.86$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$103.55 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc7d0…1f8abacked No | 19c | 116.04$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.47 | 4,347 | 29.7%1,293 W · 3,054 L | +19.8wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xaf17…5c20backed Yes | 22c | 92.36$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$72.04 | 1,787 | 25.7%460 W · 1,327 L | +132.5wins | +0.07per pick | 18cpaid | +50.8%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x0739…aba8backed Yes | 23c | 88.35$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$68.03 | 373 | 55%205 W · 168 L | +20.5wins | +0.06per pick | 49cpaid | +12%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6897…a4a4backed Yes | 23c | 88.35$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$68.03 | 192 | 17.2%33 W · 159 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 17cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9cb3…1367backed No | 16c | 87.35$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.15 | 1,554 | 33.1%515 W · 1,039 L | -66.6wins | -0.04per pick | 37cpaid | -27.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x16c7…22cdbacked No | 15c | 82.92$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.33 | 2,075 | 58.9%1,223 W · 852 L | +102.1wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xcf7c…b00dbacked No | 67c | 80$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.6 | 786 | 63.6%500 W · 286 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 64cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3942…39d7backed No | 17c | 74.35$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.64 | 297 | 17.2%51 W · 246 L | -7.1wins | -0.02per pick | 20cpaid | -13.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb06a…52f5backed Yes | 33c | 67.23$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45 | 5,832 | 36.7%2,138 W · 3,694 L | +211.1wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | -24.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5964…35dfbacked No | 38c | 65$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.87 | 1,279 | 33.6%430 W · 849 L | -6.3wins | 0.00per pick | 34cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd395…3731backed No | 23c | 64.34$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.5wins | -0.12per pick | 37cpaid | -59%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x044f…d1f1backed No | 79c | 63.52$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.18 | 8,162 | 49.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L | +269.7wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8a25…ba81backed Yes | 60c | 62.36$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.96 | 617 | 60.1%371 W · 246 L | +3.1wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | +5%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x96e6…fecebacked Yes | 26c | 58.32$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.32 | 261 | 42.1%110 W · 151 L | +15.8wins | +0.06per pick | 36cpaid | +16%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xfe3b…ae48backed Yes | 30c | 50.22$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.22 | 250 | 58.4%146 W · 104 L | +22.6wins | +0.09per pick | 49cpaid | +19.6%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x4245…a467backed Yes | 28c | 50$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.9 | 607 | 39.7%241 W · 366 L | +27.7wins | +0.05per pick | 35cpaid | +10.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2349…1646backed No | 62c | 49.99$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.1 | 482 | 61.8%298 W · 184 L | +43.5wins | +0.09per pick | 53cpaid | +12.1%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x9712…32bebacked Yes | 22c | 45.72$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.68 | 20 | 40%8 W · 12 L | +1.1wins | +0.06per pick | 34cpaid | +27.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6a8d…50f9backed No | 77c | 42.13$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.31 | 9,799 | 44.6%4,367 W · 5,432 L | +256.4wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x12ea…a131backed No | 70c | 42$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.22 | 985 | 65.1%641 W · 344 L | -13.1wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6275…c54abacked No | 75c | 38.63$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.16 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.26per pick | 76cpaid | -34.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x66a2…3538backed No | 78c | 35.7$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.85 | 16 | 25%4 W · 12 L | -3.9wins | -0.24per pick | 49cpaid | -29.3%equal weight | 39-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xc00c…ab4abacked No | 77c | 34.99$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.94 | 54 | 79.6%43 W · 11 L | +3.4wins | +0.06per pick | 73cpaid | +9.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x53fb…e92abacked Yes | 50c | 34$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17 | 48 | 72.9%35 W · 13 L | +3.2wins | +0.07per pick | 66cpaid | +9.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xaf3c…ddd0backed No | 79c | 32.05$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.32 | 466 | 67.6%315 W · 151 L | +0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 67cpaid | +334.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2869…527dbacked No | 77c | 30$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.1 | 937 | 34.9%327 W · 610 L | -203.5wins | -0.22per pick | 57cpaid | -43.2%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0xc9e1…7521backed Yes | 70c | 28.38$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.38 | 15 | 46.7%7 W · 8 L | -1.9wins | -0.13per pick | 59cpaid | -35.4%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8fbd…a959backed No | 71c | 27.21$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.25 | 8,952 | 26.7%2,392 W · 6,560 L | +120.3wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x557a…1ecdbacked No | 75c | 26.83$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 31 | 19.4%6 W · 25 L | -1.7wins | -0.05per pick | 25cpaid | -34.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9b72…a958backed No | 78c | 26.69$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.74 | 686 | 45.8%314 W · 372 L | -10.7wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1798…1ce9backed No | 80c | 25.05$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.99 | 2,428 | 44.9%1,091 W · 1,337 L | -31.5wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe422…4d64backed No | 41c | 25$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.25 | 2,065 | 43.6%900 W · 1,165 L | -11.3wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3334…69b0backed No | 80c | 21.83$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.43 | 464 | 44.4%206 W · 258 L | -18.2wins | -0.04per pick | 48cpaid | -12.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x32b9…9a9cbacked No | 67c | 20$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.4 | 649 | 60.2%391 W · 258 L | -17.0wins | -0.03per pick | 63cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x38e2…2909backed No | 72c | 19.38$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 3,479 | 53%1,845 W · 1,634 L | +72.1wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbeec…707bbacked Yes | 65c | 15.89$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.51 | 18 | 66.7%12 W · 6 L | +2.0wins | +0.11per pick | 56cpaid | +9.2%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xccd8…6083backed No | 80c | 13.16$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.53 | 44 | 59.1%26 W · 18 L | -2.1wins | -0.05per pick | 64cpaid | -12.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 29°C on May 29?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 27°C on May 29?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 28°C on May 29?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 30°C on May 29?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 31°C on May 29?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 32°C on May 29?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 33°C or higher on May 29?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.