Bundesliga · resolved market
Will VfB Stuttgart vs. TSG 1899 Hoffenheim end in a draw?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x42f5698248ecf48c6d4e0952d3d13b9cfae62505d6f9e255b861604a1c41dddd
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Bundesligaevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $28,318
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $35,152
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $28,318 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 54 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Bundesliga is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Bundesliga | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Yes | 57c | 4,041$2,314 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,727.35 | 3,284 | 42.6%1,399 W · 1,885 L | -74.0wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -18.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc6e7…caa8backed No | 3c | 2,500$74 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$74.03 | 24 | 4.2%1 W · 23 L | -1.1wins | -0.05per pick | 9cpaid | -54.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked No | 27c | 2,425$648 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$648.17 | 2,538 | 39.8%1,009 W · 1,529 L | -8.1wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb1fe…9974backed No | 33c | 2,000$660 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$660 | 86 | 37.2%32 W · 54 L | -4.0wins | -0.05per pick | 42cpaid | -18.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa99f…9c1ebacked No | 1c | 1,800$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 23 | 8.7%2 W · 21 L | +0.4wins | +0.02per pick | 7cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd6a3…9489backed Yes | 38c | 1,270$480 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$789.66 | 536 | 45.9%246 W · 290 L | +6.7wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb0df…8f41backed No | 61c | 1,142$697 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$697.19 | 61 | 67.2%41 W · 20 L | -2.4wins | -0.04per pick | 71cpaid | -7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2575…bf1ebacked Yes | 27c | 1,028$280 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$747.91 | 17 | 23.5%4 W · 13 L | -0.8wins | -0.04per pick | 28cpaid | -15.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb7b3…9573backed No | 49c | 1,000$490 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$490 | 27 | 48.1%13 W · 14 L | +0.5wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | +5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe18a…fd87backed No | 63c | 994.27$625 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$625 | 240 | 50.4%121 W · 119 L | +18.5wins | +0.08per pick | 43cpaid | +15.9%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xe60a…6a47backed Yes | 25c | 858.78$215 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$644.09 | 151 | 34.4%52 W · 99 L | -2.5wins | -0.02per pick | 36cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdf0a…70a0backed Yes | 65c | 770.32$500 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$270.32 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.9wins | -0.30per pick | 64cpaid | -48.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4133…5e70backed No | 58c | 716.34$414 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$413.54 | 751 | 42.5%319 W · 432 L | -26.7wins | -0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -14.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7197…14c8backed No | 38c | 600$228 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$228 | 32 | 46.9%15 W · 17 L | +0.5wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +12.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x908a…ad16backed Yes | 38c | 430.35$166 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$264.82 | 511 | 36.8%188 W · 323 L | -28.0wins | -0.05per pick | 42cpaid | -24.2%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4f6b…075fbacked No | 73c | 410.96$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$300 | 99 | 51.5%51 W · 48 L | -3.0wins | -0.03per pick | 55cpaid | -9.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf641…7b6fbacked No | 80c | 345$276 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$275.85 | 226 | 69%156 W · 70 L | +13.1wins | +0.06per pick | 63cpaid | +25.5%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc9cd…453cbacked Yes | 41c | 243.9$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$143.9 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +1.1wins | +0.56per pick | 44cpaid | +128.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xde04…fa37backed Yes | 62c | 184$115 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$69.08 | 282 | 41.5%117 W · 165 L | -7.9wins | -0.03per pick | 44cpaid | -16.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd3ba…e793backed Yes | 76c | 164.83$125 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.66 | 43 | 60.5%26 W · 17 L | +2.5wins | +0.06per pick | 55cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x23fe…9788backed Yes | 67c | 157.64$106 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.11 | 195 | 44.6%87 W · 108 L | -5.2wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -16.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6310…0d90backed Yes | 78c | 128.21$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.21 | 20 | 45%9 W · 11 L | -3.3wins | -0.16per pick | 61cpaid | -35%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xee14…8055backed No | 22c | 115.76$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.04 | 37 | 62.2%23 W · 14 L | +2.0wins | +0.05per pick | 57cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa478…d961backed Yes | 36c | 100.76$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$64.76 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | +0.2wins | +0.03per pick | 37cpaid | +6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5d1e…d5dfbacked No | 48c | 100$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.0wins | -0.50per pick | 50cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcf70…7d5fbacked No | 45c | 100$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45 | 61 | 47.5%29 W · 32 L | -0.9wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x884d…1da6backed No | 70c | 100$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70 | 34 | 61.8%21 W · 13 L | -2.2wins | -0.06per pick | 68cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xce04…9496backed Yes | 25c | 80$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60 | 10 | 60%6 W · 4 L | +1.2wins | +0.12per pick | 48cpaid | +41.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7d24…a93fbacked No | 67c | 74.99$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.24 | 88 | 70.5%62 W · 26 L | +1.6wins | +0.02per pick | 69cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x045f…e343backed Yes | 71c | 70.42$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.42 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | -1.2wins | -0.15per pick | 65cpaid | -14.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x781c…db68backed Yes | 33c | 70$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.6 | 223 | 32.3%72 W · 151 L | -7.6wins | -0.03per pick | 36cpaid | -24%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x873a…2066backed No | 30c | 66.2$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.74 | 133 | 32.3%43 W · 90 L | -5.4wins | -0.04per pick | 36cpaid | -37%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa67d…a852backed Yes | 58c | 63.98$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.63 | 12 | 50%6 W · 6 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x57fe…7839backed Yes | 25c | 60$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45 | 5 | 100%5 W · 0 L | +2.0wins | +0.40per pick | 60cpaid | +99.2%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xb311…2b64backed Yes | 24c | 59.58$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.48 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | +0.8wins | +0.09per pick | 25cpaid | +35.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3d9f…0852backed No | 76c | 54.39$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.34 | 25 | 68%17 W · 8 L | -1.7wins | -0.07per pick | 75cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe04b…aae8backed Yes | 25c | 49.08$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.81 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +1.4wins | +0.70per pick | 30cpaid | +242.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7e7d…2353backed Yes | 25c | 45.76$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.32 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.09per pick | 41cpaid | +100%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf142…57e7backed No | 74c | 42.12$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.17 | 230 | 46.5%107 W · 123 L | -6.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa66f…f5a3backed Yes | 24c | 41.99$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.91 | 149 | 42.3%63 W · 86 L | -1.8wins | -0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -6.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x64ff…8f70backed Yes | 25c | 40$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30 | 61 | 49.2%30 W · 31 L | +3.3wins | +0.05per pick | 44cpaid | +19.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x83fc…13ccbacked No | 29c | 35.46$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.26 | 11 | 54.5%6 W · 5 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x00ec…3ecbbacked No | 60c | 33$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.81 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.2wins | -0.38per pick | 38cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc0ce…db56backed Yes | 52c | 29$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.93 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x019c…e2c2backed No | 77c | 25$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.25 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | -2.1wins | -0.30per pick | 73cpaid | -38.4%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xd1ed…d7cbbacked Yes | 67c | 21$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.99 | 63 | 47.6%30 W · 33 L | +1.1wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9cb4…8285backed No | 75c | 20$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 550 | 58.7%323 W · 227 L | +23.5wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfead…f7bdbacked No | 76c | 18.26$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.88 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.4wins | -0.71per pick | 71cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa870…2cd1backed No | 75c | 16.66$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.5 | 112 | 81.3%91 W · 21 L | +6.1wins | +0.05per pick | 76cpaid | +7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe3ce…35ccbacked No | 76c | 16.01$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.17 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.8wins | -0.76per pick | 76cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbd06…4aa5backed No | 76c | 15.13$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.5 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.8wins | -0.76per pick | 76cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x24a4…d49ebacked No | 76c | 15.01$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.41 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.26per pick | 76cpaid | -35.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa976…8563backed No | 76c | 14.61$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.1 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.08per pick | 58cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe05e…5982backed No | 76c | 13.87$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.54 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.3wins | -0.63per pick | 63cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Bundesliga and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will VfB Stuttgart vs. TSG 1899 Hoffenheim end in a draw?this page
- Will TSG 1899 Hoffenheim win on 2025-12-20?No won
- Will VfB Stuttgart win on 2025-12-20?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.