Bundesliga · resolved market
Will TSG 1899 Hoffenheim win on 2025-12-20?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x14035f75496945c7890db66005ebe5191d26dc364e14bdfac37984904b6859dd
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Bundesligaevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $26,515
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $28,789
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $26,515 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 57 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Bundesliga is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Bundesliga | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x48fe…b2b6backed Yes | 30c | 2,692$806 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$805.65 | 38 | 55.3%21 W · 17 L | +2.2wins | +0.06per pick | 50cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4133…5e70backed No | 78c | 2,386$1,860 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$525.57 | 751 | 42.5%319 W · 432 L | -26.7wins | -0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -14.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed No | 77c | 2,242$1,737 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$504.42 | 3,284 | 42.6%1,399 W · 1,885 L | -74.0wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -18.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xff80…9b4dbacked Yes | 27c | 1,773$479 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$478.71 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.0wins | -0.33per pick | 33cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe671…a682backed Yes | 16c | 1,500$240 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$240 | 158 | 47.5%75 W · 83 L | +10.5wins | +0.07per pick | 41cpaid | +18.9%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x13fa…3facbacked Yes | 27c | 1,500$405 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$405 | 277 | 26.4%73 W · 204 L | -1.9wins | -0.01per pick | 27cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe486…0c26backed Yes | 28c | 1,448$400 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$400 | 38 | 34.2%13 W · 25 L | +2.6wins | +0.07per pick | 27cpaid | +16%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4446…1fd0backed No | 76c | 1,317$1,000 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$316.87 | 28 | 82.1%23 W · 5 L | +4.0wins | +0.14per pick | 68cpaid | +24.1%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x1947…94bcbacked No | 73c | 1,266$924 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$341.75 | 59 | 59.3%35 W · 24 L | +1.6wins | +0.03per pick | 57cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xee14…8055backed No | 70c | 1,126$788 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$337.74 | 37 | 62.2%23 W · 14 L | +2.0wins | +0.05per pick | 57cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8d00…45a4backed Yes | 28c | 955$267 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$267.4 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.28per pick | 28cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x44d0…443abacked Yes | 28c | 953$267 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$266.84 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.28per pick | 28cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x526e…9b3fbacked Yes | 28c | 742$208 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$207.76 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.28per pick | 28cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc0ac…fd51backed No | 72c | 715.28$515 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$200.28 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | -0.6wins | -0.07per pick | 51cpaid | -21.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8e57…d1d0backed Yes | 28c | 674$189 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$188.72 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.28per pick | 28cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4794…c8dabacked No | 72c | 649$467 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$181.72 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.28per pick | 72cpaid | +38.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd502…4d4cbacked No | 72c | 540.45$390 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$150.84 | 21 | 61.9%13 W · 8 L | -0.4wins | -0.02per pick | 64cpaid | -6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x27dd…0ce9backed No | 72c | 500$360 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$140 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.28per pick | 72cpaid | +38.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x87a1…21a1backed No | 72c | 453$326 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$126.84 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.28per pick | 72cpaid | +38.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc0d0…f8d1backed No | 72c | 430$310 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$120.4 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.28per pick | 72cpaid | +38.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2157…b096backed No | 72c | 422$304 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$118.16 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.28per pick | 72cpaid | +38.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf41a…ea2bbacked No | 71c | 399.96$284 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$115.99 | 26 | 65.4%17 W · 9 L | +1.4wins | +0.05per pick | 60cpaid | +13.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9776…fc56backed Yes | 28c | 357.14$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 16 | 31.3%5 W · 11 L | -0.6wins | -0.03per pick | 35cpaid | -28.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcb6d…4e19backed Yes | 28c | 350$98 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$98 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 32cpaid | -20.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3b5c…126ebacked No | 70c | 332.86$233 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$99.86 | 271 | 38.4%104 W · 167 L | -9.0wins | -0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -17%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x346b…3df4backed No | 72c | 312$225 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$87.36 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.28per pick | 72cpaid | +38.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0097…8401backed No | 72c | 306$220 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$85.68 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.28per pick | 72cpaid | +38.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6d01…0ab1backed Yes | 27c | 299.99$81 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$81 | 110 | 36.4%40 W · 70 L | -2.7wins | -0.02per pick | 39cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x781c…db68backed Yes | 8c | 270$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.8 | 223 | 32.3%72 W · 151 L | -7.6wins | -0.03per pick | 36cpaid | -24%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x78b7…9581backed No | 72c | 252$181 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$70.56 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.28per pick | 72cpaid | +38.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe50b…c2a8backed No | 73c | 250$183 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$67.5 | 93 | 50.5%47 W · 46 L | -2.7wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1d94…9100backed Yes | 25c | 213.92$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.48 | 762 | 34.8%265 W · 497 L | +9.4wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe60a…6a47backed Yes | 29c | 111$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.91 | 151 | 34.4%52 W · 99 L | -2.5wins | -0.02per pick | 36cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf68a…625dbacked Yes | 25c | 103$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.58 | 66 | 39.4%26 W · 40 L | +1.5wins | +0.02per pick | 37cpaid | -10%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe5cf…c348backed Yes | 29c | 100$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29 | 18 | 44.4%8 W · 10 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -9.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5487…a014backed Yes | 27c | 100$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27 | 300 | 54%162 W · 138 L | +10.2wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdd3a…9993backed No | 72c | 98.3$71 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.54 | 58 | 65.5%38 W · 20 L | +1.7wins | +0.03per pick | 63cpaid | +10.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbed0…3c7dbacked Yes | 29c | 86.21$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 204 | 36.3%74 W · 130 L | -5.5wins | -0.03per pick | 39cpaid | -13%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2dc4…0c92backed Yes | 28c | 80.28$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.48 | 71 | 52.1%37 W · 34 L | +3.6wins | +0.05per pick | 47cpaid | +6.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2e20…ac93backed Yes | 28c | 71.43$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 13 | 46.2%6 W · 7 L | +0.4wins | +0.03per pick | 43cpaid | -15%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x96a0…01fdbacked Yes | 29c | 70$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.3 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.9wins | -0.22per pick | 22cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3a56…387cbacked No | 80c | 64.99$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.15 | 89 | 46.1%41 W · 48 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -11.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x865f…e88ebacked Yes | 28c | 56.37$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.54 | 343 | 42%144 W · 199 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x84e5…2303backed Yes | 29c | 51.72$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 30 | 36.7%11 W · 19 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -11.4%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x859d…3cecbacked Yes | 27c | 43.39$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.72 | 46 | 41.3%19 W · 27 L | +2.1wins | +0.05per pick | 37cpaid | +52.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x79df…1661backed Yes | 28c | 42.86$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 85 | 31.8%27 W · 58 L | -1.5wins | -0.02per pick | 34cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7e18…696fbacked Yes | 29c | 40$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.6 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -0.8wins | -0.12per pick | 41cpaid | -32.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd53e…e70cbacked No | 74c | 32.59$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.47 | 14 | 64.3%9 W · 5 L | +1.0wins | +0.07per pick | 57cpaid | +5.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x581b…f083backed No | 73c | 28.01$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.56 | 7 | 85.7%6 W · 1 L | +1.7wins | +0.24per pick | 62cpaid | +38.5%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xcc0e…0fbdbacked No | 71c | 20.6$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.97 | 84 | 61.9%52 W · 32 L | +8.6wins | +0.10per pick | 52cpaid | +19.3%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xb1b9…215cbacked No | 71c | 20$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.8 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -19.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa579…aad0backed No | 71c | 20$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.8 | 9 | 66.7%6 W · 3 L | +1.7wins | +0.18per pick | 48cpaid | +44.2%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9cb4…8285backed No | 71c | 17.25$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5 | 550 | 58.7%323 W · 227 L | +23.5wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked No | 71c | 16.38$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.75 | 1,355 | 50.9%690 W · 665 L | +12.7wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd873…32f6backed No | 76c | 14.47$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.47 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 78cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x57fe…7839backed No | 73c | 14.38$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.88 | 5 | 100%5 W · 0 L | +2.0wins | +0.40per pick | 60cpaid | +99.2%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x187b…f545backed No | 72c | 14$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.92 | 39 | 51.3%20 W · 19 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -19%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Bundesliga and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will TSG 1899 Hoffenheim win on 2025-12-20?this page
- Will VfB Stuttgart vs. TSG 1899 Hoffenheim end in a draw?Yes won
- Will VfB Stuttgart win on 2025-12-20?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.