WNBA · resolved market
Will Napheesa Collier win the 2025 WNBA MVP?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x42f9157688e000eb2e37e1c920f6b83dbb6a6ba2d4f03822953a0541bef90435
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- WNBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $2,490
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $2,613
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $2,490 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 13 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in WNBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in WNBA | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xe542…0a37backed Yes | 49c | 355.55$173 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$173.44 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +1.0wins | +0.20per pick | 60cpaid | +35%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0781…c4ffbacked Yes | 69c | 284$196 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$195.83 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +0.4wins | +0.06per pick | 60cpaid | -2.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xde04…fa37backed Yes | 5c | 201.09$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.03 | 191 | 42.4%81 W · 110 L | +1.0wins | +0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -13.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe9ae…2103backed Yes | 52c | 200.25$104 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$104.13 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.06per pick | 56cpaid | -16.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa842…08e5backed Yes | 70c | 200$140 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$140 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.70per pick | 70cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdfc1…818dbacked Yes | 62c | 135$83 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$83.22 | 25 | 40%10 W · 15 L | -3.7wins | -0.15per pick | 55cpaid | -27.1%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x38e5…95e7backed Yes | 29c | 130$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.1 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.27per pick | 27cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8e90…db70backed Yes | 70c | 100$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | +150%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xac1e…ea39backed Yes | 32c | 78.13$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.32per pick | 32cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x37a4…a487backed Yes | 68c | 41.18$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.68per pick | 68cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9cdd…3e97backed Yes | 56c | 35$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.7 | 11 | 81.8%9 W · 2 L | +1.6wins | +0.14per pick | 68cpaid | +18.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8f6d…6b4ebacked Yes | 50c | 20$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.50per pick | 50cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x61b0…1f3bbacked No | 50c | 20$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.20per pick | 30cpaid | 0%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in WNBA and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Napheesa Collier win the 2025 WNBA MVP?this page
- Will A'ja Wilson win the 2025 WNBA MVP?Yes won
- Will Alyssa Thomas win the 2025 WNBA MVP?No won
- Will Caitlin Clark win the 2025 WNBA MVP?No won
- Will Sabrina Ionescu win the 2025 WNBA MVP?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.