Bundesliga · resolved market
Will 1. FC Heidenheim 1846 win on 2026-01-17?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x4301c9f7b6d018d574ce18db28bbed9af415b9f444b5015544aa6b1ea7de7d87
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Bundesligaevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $54,699
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $53,886
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $54,699 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 46 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Bundesliga is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Bundesliga | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x2005…75eabacked No | 39c | 12,419$4,849 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7,570.26 | 2,538 | 39.8%1,009 W · 1,529 L | -8.1wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Yes | 57c | 10,253$5,800 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$5,800.06 | 3,284 | 42.6%1,399 W · 1,885 L | -74.0wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -18.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2652…2a1dbacked Yes | 18c | 6,046$1,087 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,086.53 | 782 | 48.8%382 W · 400 L | -28.1wins | -0.04per pick | 52cpaid | -12.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4133…5e70backed Yes | 18c | 4,470$809 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$809.32 | 751 | 42.5%319 W · 432 L | -26.7wins | -0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -14.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x97e0…8194backed Yes | 18c | 2,941$520 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$519.94 | 116 | 44.8%52 W · 64 L | -2.5wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6125…1b5fbacked Yes | 43c | 1,719$739 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$738.98 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.09per pick | 58cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1923…fe63backed Yes | 18c | 1,550$279 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$279 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.18per pick | 18cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd6a3…9489backed Yes | 43c | 1,253$539 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$539 | 536 | 45.9%246 W · 290 L | +6.7wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6c0b…43cbbacked Yes | 18c | 611.17$113 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$113.03 | 228 | 29.4%67 W · 161 L | +1.3wins | +0.01per pick | 29cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa62d…92e0backed Yes | 19c | 600$114 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$114 | 49 | 20.4%10 W · 39 L | -4.5wins | -0.09per pick | 30cpaid | -13.2%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6d3c…d294backed Yes | 18c | 584.97$105 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$105.29 | 698 | 51.9%362 W · 336 L | +22.3wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +9.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x291b…2667backed No | 80c | 538.84$431 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$107.77 | 11 | 54.5%6 W · 5 L | -0.8wins | -0.07per pick | 62cpaid | -22.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8d88…1e28backed No | 50c | 344.78$172 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$173.06 | 45 | 33.3%15 W · 30 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -17.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfefb…4b5dbacked No | 39c | 300$117 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$183 | 238 | 42.9%102 W · 136 L | +2.7wins | +0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -13.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe6aa…8882backed Yes | 19c | 263.46$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 72 | 19.4%14 W · 58 L | -1.9wins | -0.03per pick | 22cpaid | -24.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb8c4…7385backed Yes | 12c | 262.91$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.55 | 157 | 42%66 W · 91 L | +4.7wins | +0.03per pick | 39cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe20a…e469backed No | 80c | 239.27$191 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.85 | 147 | 56.5%83 W · 64 L | +3.4wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8b43…8ebdbacked Yes | 62c | 214.52$133 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$133 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -1.0wins | -0.32per pick | 66cpaid | -51.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6008…a80bbacked Yes | 19c | 184.68$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.09 | 373 | 44.5%166 W · 207 L | -15.1wins | -0.04per pick | 49cpaid | -17.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xde1b…ccc9backed No | 39c | 180$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$109.8 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +1.2wins | +0.58per pick | 42cpaid | +136.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x76da…30a2backed No | 58c | 172.41$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$72.41 | 49 | 49%24 W · 25 L | +3.0wins | +0.06per pick | 43cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xed61…9aa3backed No | 53c | 159.32$84 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$74.88 | 150 | 64%96 W · 54 L | +25.0wins | +0.17per pick | 47cpaid | +53.3%equal weight | 66+0.14 edge/pick |
| 0xea9e…d3fbbacked Yes | 18c | 149.37$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.89 | 97 | 21.6%21 W · 76 L | -2.9wins | -0.03per pick | 25cpaid | -24.1%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4e2c…6aaebacked Yes | 20c | 139.27$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.85 | 29 | 24.1%7 W · 22 L | -0.8wins | -0.03per pick | 27cpaid | -27%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4818…bf0bbacked Yes | 20c | 131.7$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.66 | 61 | 44.3%27 W · 34 L | -1.1wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -17.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x58c8…0300backed No | 61c | 125.82$77 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.65 | 165 | 42.4%70 W · 95 L | -3.1wins | -0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -14.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x61d0…6934backed Yes | 43c | 111.11$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.78 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -2.5wins | -0.36per pick | 50cpaid | -77.4%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xf009…19e9backed Yes | 19c | 105.26$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 125 | 38.4%48 W · 77 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 39cpaid | -4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd306…4320backed Yes | 19c | 105.25$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 52 | 32.7%17 W · 35 L | +3.4wins | +0.07per pick | 26cpaid | +67.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3a56…387cbacked No | 59c | 101.9$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.97 | 89 | 46.1%41 W · 48 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -11.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1fe4…3f12backed Yes | 44c | 100$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44 | 12 | 25%3 W · 9 L | -1.8wins | -0.15per pick | 40cpaid | -36.7%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5422…6c3fbacked No | 55c | 99.99$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.99 | 38 | 68.4%26 W · 12 L | +8.0wins | +0.21per pick | 47cpaid | +50.8%equal weight | 64+0.13 edge/pick |
| 0x4f56…f1bbbacked No | 43c | 93.02$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.02 | 9 | 66.7%6 W · 3 L | +2.4wins | +0.26per pick | 40cpaid | +45.6%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x7d16…addabacked Yes | 65c | 77.82$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.58 | 11 | 36.4%4 W · 7 L | -1.4wins | -0.12per pick | 49cpaid | +9.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xebf4…181ebacked Yes | 54c | 74.07$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.2wins | -0.61per pick | 61cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x727d…1589backed Yes | 19c | 73.49$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.27 | 72 | 30.6%22 W · 50 L | -4.6wins | -0.06per pick | 37cpaid | -32.4%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4a4b…bbcabacked No | 58c | 68.97$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.97 | 346 | 55.5%192 W · 154 L | +9.8wins | +0.03per pick | 53cpaid | +4.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2c2c…90d4backed No | 40c | 62.5$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.5 | 38 | 57.9%22 W · 16 L | +2.5wins | +0.07per pick | 51cpaid | +10.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x21c2…6749backed Yes | 33c | 60$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.8 | 65 | 53.8%35 W · 30 L | +2.4wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfc8b…d3d6backed No | 68c | 50$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.2 | 31 | 41.9%13 W · 18 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | -12.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfc8f…3782backed No | 54c | 47.12$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.74 | 119 | 31.1%37 W · 82 L | -9.8wins | -0.08per pick | 39cpaid | -23.7%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xec25…dec6backed Yes | 58c | 43.97$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.5 | 19 | 63.2%12 W · 7 L | +1.4wins | +0.07per pick | 56cpaid | +17.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6cd7…88d8backed No | 65c | 34.54$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.11 | 13 | 84.6%11 W · 2 L | +2.4wins | +0.19per pick | 66cpaid | +26.9%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1d94…9100backed Yes | 47c | 28.36$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.33 | 762 | 34.8%265 W · 497 L | +9.4wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2c46…dac9backed No | 56c | 28.05$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.34 | 395 | 58.7%232 W · 163 L | +27.4wins | +0.07per pick | 52cpaid | +15.4%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xa3b2…b8fbbacked No | 80c | 12.5$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2.5 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.32per pick | 68cpaid | +51.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Bundesliga and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will 1. FC Heidenheim 1846 win on 2026-01-17?this page
- Will VfL Wolfsburg vs. 1. FC Heidenheim 1846 end in a draw?Yes won
- Will VfL Wolfsburg win on 2026-01-17?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.