TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Bundesliga · resolved market

Will VfL Wolfsburg win on 2026-01-17?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Noof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Bundesligaevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$158,154
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$153,757

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $158,154 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 176 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Bundesliga is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Bundesliga
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x204f…5e14backed No53c24,680$13,112 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$11,568.033,28442.6%1,399 W · 1,885 L-74.0wins-0.02per pick45cpaid-18.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xc3c3…eec8backed Yes58c20,000$11,600 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11,60011445.6%52 W · 62 L+0.1wins0.00per pick45cpaid-5.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4133…5e70backed No42c19,706$8,249 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$11,457.1275142.5%319 W · 432 L-26.7wins-0.04per pick46cpaid-14.2%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x507e…beaebacked No42c18,153$7,552 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$10,601.491,35550.9%690 W · 665 L+12.7wins+0.01per pick50cpaid-2.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x80cf…427dbacked Yes56c14,000$7,770 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$7,769.9910445.2%47 W · 57 L+3.8wins+0.04per pick42cpaid+16.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x9fad…5a9fbacked Yes59c10,000$5,850 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5,85033244.6%148 W · 184 L-3.1wins-0.01per pick46cpaid-4.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x48fe…b2b6backed Yes59c10,000$5,900 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5,9003855.3%21 W · 17 L+2.2wins+0.06per pick50cpaid+5.5%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x4818…bf0bbacked No43c7,505$3,227 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,2786144.3%27 W · 34 L-1.1wins-0.02per pick46cpaid-17.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x3d7d…ec26backed Yes28c7,500$2,100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,100250%1 W · 1 L+0.2wins+0.09per pick41cpaid-7.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x6d3c…d294backed No42c7,159$2,975 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,183.9669851.9%362 W · 336 L+22.3wins+0.03per pick49cpaid+9.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xe671…a682backed Yes56c5,300$2,978 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,97815847.5%75 W · 83 L+10.5wins+0.07per pick41cpaid+18.9%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x9c16…09cbbacked No42c5,056$2,123 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,932.281566.7%10 W · 5 L+2.8wins+0.19per pick48cpaid+33.1%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x97e0…8194backed No40c4,000$1,620 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,379.9911644.8%52 W · 64 L-2.5wins-0.02per pick47cpaid+5.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xd05f…8777backed No41c4,000$1,620 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,379.996126.2%16 W · 45 L-7.8wins-0.13per pick39cpaid-52.9%equal weight40-0.09 edge/pick
0x9158…fa7bbacked Yes57c3,773$2,150 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,150.382941.4%12 W · 17 L-2.0wins-0.07per pick48cpaid-15.2%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x160b…4296backed Yes57c3,508$2,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,999.5638748.3%187 W · 200 L-3.4wins-0.01per pick49cpaid-3.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xfed7…e405backed Yes59c3,500$2,065 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,0659549.5%47 W · 48 L+1.6wins+0.02per pick48cpaid-5.4%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x4761…394abacked Yes59c3,071$1,812 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,811.8910%0 W · 1 L-0.6wins-0.59per pick59cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xf142…57e7backed Yes57c3,000$1,710 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,71023046.5%107 W · 123 L-6.5wins-0.03per pick49cpaid-10.7%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x7c38…de5abacked No41c3,000$1,220 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,7806053.3%32 W · 28 L+0.4wins+0.01per pick53cpaid-9.8%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0x2005…75eabacked No66c2,849$1,885 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$964.062,53839.8%1,009 W · 1,529 L-8.1wins0.00per pick40cpaid-11.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf164…8fa4backed No42c2,605$1,094 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,510.764658.7%27 W · 19 L+2.5wins+0.05per pick53cpaid+18.6%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x3eee…e8b6backed No42c2,409$1,004 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,404.710945.9%50 W · 59 L-2.9wins-0.03per pick49cpaid-1.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xa196…5b78backed No41c2,243$917 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,325.539831.6%31 W · 67 L-6.5wins-0.07per pick38cpaid-26%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xd04d…d0e5backed No41c2,000$820 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,1805457.4%31 W · 23 L+2.6wins+0.05per pick53cpaid+1.2%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x7d2f…ef1abacked No41c1,692$694 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$998.112250%11 W · 11 L-0.2wins-0.01per pick51cpaid+12.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe648…b79abacked Yes60c1,572$943 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$9433834.2%13 W · 25 L+0.2wins+0.01per pick34cpaid+3.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7ea5…de7bbacked No61c1,547$946 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$601.661,68145.2%759 W · 922 L+6.8wins0.00per pick45cpaid-2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd6a3…9489backed No68c1,519$1,036 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$483.1553645.9%246 W · 290 L+6.7wins+0.01per pick45cpaid-0.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x4b62…2e59backed No40c1,516$606 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$909.374252.4%22 W · 20 L+1.9wins+0.05per pick48cpaid+10.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x13fa…3facbacked No42c1,500$630 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$87027726.4%73 W · 204 L-1.9wins-0.01per pick27cpaid-0.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x3102…187cbacked Yes57c1,500$855 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$854.985152.9%27 W · 24 L+0.4wins+0.01per pick52cpaid-0.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x4337…8882backed No42c1,436$603 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$832.793063.3%19 W · 11 L+6.8wins+0.23per pick41cpaid+50.6%equal weight64+0.12 edge/pick
0xb8c8…d8a4backed No41c1,220$500 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$719.512263.6%14 W · 8 L+1.6wins+0.07per pick56cpaid+2.4%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x5773…ac11backed No42c1,200$504 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$69631145%140 W · 171 L-1.9wins-0.01per pick46cpaid+4.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6d59…9c7fbacked No41c1,192$489 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$703.281100%1 W · 0 L+0.6wins+0.59per pick41cpaid+143.9%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x52d8…99aebacked Yes58c1,171$679 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$679.185655.4%31 W · 25 L-0.7wins-0.01per pick57cpaid+0.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5d56…f790backed No41c1,018$417 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$600.621100%1 W · 0 L+0.6wins+0.59per pick41cpaid+143.9%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xe486…0c26backed Yes24c1,014$242 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2423834.2%13 W · 25 L+2.6wins+0.07per pick27cpaid+16%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x4818…fde0backed Yes59c1,000$590 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5901250%6 W · 6 L-0.1wins-0.01per pick51cpaid-0.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc8da…cad3backed No43c1,000$430 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5702378.3%18 W · 5 L+5.8wins+0.25per pick53cpaid+46.7%equal weight63+0.12 edge/pick
0xe18a…fd87backed Yes59c1,000$590 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$59024050.4%121 W · 119 L+18.5wins+0.08per pick43cpaid+15.9%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0xc443…359bbacked Yes21c959.55$201 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$200.785046%23 W · 27 L+1.6wins+0.03per pick43cpaid+12.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x64d6…943dbacked No41c861$353 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$507.991100%1 W · 0 L+0.6wins+0.59per pick41cpaid+143.9%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x8d88…1e28backed Yes18c651.34$120 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$120.224533.3%15 W · 30 L+0.4wins+0.01per pick32cpaid-17.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xf5a7…63e7backed Yes58c600$348 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$34822747.1%107 W · 120 L+11.6wins+0.05per pick42cpaid+15.2%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x7643…fb95backed No41c600$246 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3541662.5%10 W · 6 L+1.8wins+0.11per pick51cpaid+13%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x9a6e…35b4backed Yes59c600$354 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3549746.4%45 W · 52 L+1.1wins+0.01per pick45cpaid+7.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xc922…2618backed No41c569.27$233 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$335.879048.9%44 W · 46 L-2.3wins-0.03per pick51cpaid-7.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xce2b…08fabacked Yes58c520$302 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$301.638055.8%212 W · 168 L-0.9wins0.00per pick56cpaid+0.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb023…f142backed No41c500$205 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2955554.5%30 W · 25 L+2.4wins+0.04per pick50cpaid+6.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x2652…2a1dbacked Yes12c493.76$58 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$57.7478248.8%382 W · 400 L-28.1wins-0.04per pick52cpaid-12.2%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x38d0…899bbacked Yes59c452.43$266 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$265.8887.5%7 W · 1 L+2.7wins+0.34per pick53cpaid+67.3%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x865f…e88ebacked Yes58c412.45$241 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$241.1834342%144 W · 199 L-0.4wins0.00per pick42cpaid-5.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4ebb…061abacked Yes60c401.46$240 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2408363.9%53 W · 30 L+4.5wins+0.05per pick58cpaid+9.2%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xbb15…5fefbacked Yes25c400$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1002259.1%13 W · 9 L+2.1wins+0.10per pick50cpaid+8.5%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xba26…23c9backed No41c399.95$165 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$235.1411056.4%62 W · 48 L+3.5wins+0.03per pick53cpaid+1.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xdf37…8b49backed No48c390.31$189 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$201.382429.2%7 W · 17 L-3.5wins-0.14per pick44cpaid-31.2%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x0d44…2f97backed Yes58c344.83$200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$200862.5%5 W · 3 L+0.9wins+0.12per pick51cpaid+24.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x5151…4e57backed Yes59c338.98$200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2004353.5%23 W · 20 L+3.2wins+0.08per pick46cpaid+11.2%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x9086…4d46backed Yes59c338.98$200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2002937.9%11 W · 18 L-1.6wins-0.05per pick43cpaid-12.3%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x4597…272bbacked Yes59c338.98$200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2003246.9%15 W · 17 L+2.1wins+0.07per pick40cpaid+5.9%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x417c…cef0backed No41c315$129 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$185.851100%1 W · 0 L+0.6wins+0.59per pick41cpaid+143.9%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x58c8…0300backed No63c313.65$197 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$116.7616542.4%70 W · 95 L-3.1wins-0.02per pick44cpaid-14.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xbd03…a965backed Yes59c310$183 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$182.910%0 W · 1 L-0.6wins-0.59per pick59cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x8856…5384backed Yes59c305$180 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$179.9510%0 W · 1 L-0.6wins-0.59per pick59cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x5316…1d07backed No42c300$126 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1743122.6%7 W · 24 L-5.8wins-0.19per pick41cpaid-38.8%equal weight39-0.10 edge/pick
0x0ae1…2cd7backed No41c300$123 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1771100%1 W · 0 L+0.6wins+0.59per pick41cpaid+143.9%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x7b2c…af48backed No41c300$123 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$17756547.8%270 W · 295 L+6.8wins+0.01per pick47cpaid-0.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe20a…e469backed No41c300$123 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$17714756.5%83 W · 64 L+3.4wins+0.02per pick54cpaid+3.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xfefb…4b5dbacked Yes12c299.25$36 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$35.9123842.9%102 W · 136 L+2.7wins+0.01per pick42cpaid-13.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x3a56…387cbacked No68c293.87$200 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$948946.1%41 W · 48 L+0.3wins0.00per pick46cpaid-11.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe60a…6a47backed Yes60c291$173 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$173.1615134.4%52 W · 99 L-2.5wins-0.02per pick36cpaid-7.7%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xeddf…a953backed No43c232.56$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$132.568532.9%28 W · 57 L-6.1wins-0.07per pick40cpaid-14.3%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0x4c9b…e74abacked No43c232.56$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$132.569542.1%40 W · 55 L-1.1wins-0.01per pick43cpaid+1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x7a49…d9f5backed No73c222.54$163 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$59.5940744.5%181 W · 226 L-5.1wins-0.01per pick46cpaid-20.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xb113…8bc6backed No41c221.98$91 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$130.9714364.3%92 W · 51 L+14.8wins+0.10per pick54cpaid+24.3%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0xb8c4…7385backed Yes25c200$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5015742%66 W · 91 L+4.7wins+0.03per pick39cpaid+0.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x10b0…8525backed Yes59c200$118 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11816850%84 W · 84 L-0.6wins0.00per pick50cpaid+3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3fe8…1fd3backed Yes17c200$34 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$349621.9%21 W · 75 L+1.9wins+0.02per pick20cpaid+12.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x76da…30a2backed Yes28c200$56 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$564949%24 W · 25 L+3.0wins+0.06per pick43cpaid+0.7%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x5f84…67efbacked Yes22c200$44 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4414726.5%39 W · 108 L-0.5wins0.00per pick27cpaid-12.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1e7d…4a9bbacked Yes36c200$73 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$72.5516750.9%85 W · 82 L+9.6wins+0.06per pick45cpaid+2.6%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x43c8…0551backed Yes24c200$48 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4830%0 W · 3 L-1.0wins-0.33per pick33cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x3e2d…4323backed Yes56c200$112 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1121560%9 W · 6 L+0.1wins0.00per pick60cpaid-4.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd20f…f5c7backed Yes58c194.83$113 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11320%0 W · 2 L-1.2wins-0.59per pick59cpaid-100%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xd9e0…05f2backed Yes49c174.96$85 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$85.1111644%51 W · 65 L-3.6wins-0.03per pick47cpaid-27.2%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x87d5…9790backed Yes58c173$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$100.342050%10 W · 10 L+0.2wins+0.01per pick49cpaid-9.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x802f…e008backed Yes58c172.41$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10012271.3%87 W · 35 L+6.1wins+0.05per pick66cpaid+8.4%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xdf60…f8d5backed Yes58c172.41$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1001172.7%8 W · 3 L+1.6wins+0.14per pick58cpaid+28.7%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x21c1…692cbacked Yes58c172.41$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1002564%16 W · 9 L+3.7wins+0.15per pick49cpaid+35.4%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x1b2c…5e10backed Yes59c169.49$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10011250.9%57 W · 55 L+6.1wins+0.05per pick45cpaid+7.4%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x58f4…764ebacked Yes59c169.49$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1004643.5%20 W · 26 L+2.1wins+0.05per pick39cpaid+16.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xef65…f32fbacked Yes18c162.34$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$301978.9%15 W · 4 L+3.7wins+0.20per pick59cpaid+39.5%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x1db3…ada1backed Yes57c154$88 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$88.197759.7%46 W · 31 L+5.4wins+0.07per pick53cpaid+11.9%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xbed0…3c7dbacked Yes59c152.12$90 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$9020436.3%74 W · 130 L-5.5wins-0.03per pick39cpaid-13%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x6008…a80bbacked No42c144.88$61 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$84.0337344.5%166 W · 207 L-15.1wins-0.04per pick49cpaid-17.4%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xf02d…16cabacked Yes58c137.93$80 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$808258.5%48 W · 34 L+5.8wins+0.07per pick51cpaid+11.6%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xf65d…9e25backed Yes26c120$31 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$31.2450%2 W · 2 L+0.2wins+0.04per pick46cpaid-26.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x4a8d…31eabacked Yes59c118$70 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$69.6234547.5%164 W · 181 L+0.8wins0.00per pick47cpaid-2.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Bundesliga and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.