Bundesliga · resolved market
Will VfL Wolfsburg vs. 1. FC Heidenheim 1846 end in a draw?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xa820de11d08b4aaae21fab6105c388cb90cbed28bae102c8fd3387663b926b08
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Bundesligaevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $25,044
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $27,114
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $25,044 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 61 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Bundesliga is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Bundesliga | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x4133…5e70backed No | 75c | 6,945$5,241 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$5,241.16 | 751 | 42.5%319 W · 432 L | -26.7wins | -0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -14.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf519…906bbacked Yes | 24c | 6,000$1,440 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,560 | 166 | 47%78 W · 88 L | +3.0wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked No | 33c | 2,492$821 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$820.91 | 2,538 | 39.8%1,009 W · 1,529 L | -8.1wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7250…f52fbacked Yes | 24c | 2,000$480 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,520 | 54 | 25.9%14 W · 40 L | -3.3wins | -0.06per pick | 32cpaid | -25.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfed7…e405backed Yes | 24c | 1,791$425 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,366.7 | 95 | 49.5%47 W · 48 L | +1.6wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8d88…1e28backed Yes | 29c | 1,031$299 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$731.77 | 45 | 33.3%15 W · 30 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -17.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3eee…e8b6backed No | 77c | 632$487 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$486.64 | 109 | 45.9%50 W · 59 L | -2.9wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Yes | 44c | 617.98$270 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$347.54 | 3,284 | 42.6%1,399 W · 1,885 L | -74.0wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -18.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0146…5ddebacked Yes | 27c | 617.05$164 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$453.06 | 15 | 46.7%7 W · 8 L | +0.8wins | +0.05per pick | 41cpaid | +14.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf509…67b9backed No | 76c | 555$422 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$421.8 | 11 | 54.5%6 W · 5 L | -0.9wins | -0.09per pick | 63cpaid | -7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7ea5…de7bbacked No | 72c | 526.74$377 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$376.98 | 1,681 | 45.2%759 W · 922 L | +6.8wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | -2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb023…f142backed No | 76c | 499.97$380 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$379.98 | 55 | 54.5%30 W · 25 L | +2.4wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb0df…8f41backed No | 73c | 466$342 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$342.11 | 61 | 67.2%41 W · 20 L | -2.4wins | -0.04per pick | 71cpaid | -7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x865f…e88ebacked Yes | 23c | 461$106 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$354.97 | 343 | 42%144 W · 199 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe6a2…9874backed Yes | 32c | 400$128 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$272 | 63 | 44.4%28 W · 35 L | +9.8wins | +0.16per pick | 29cpaid | +50.6%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xba26…23c9backed No | 76c | 399.99$304 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$303.99 | 110 | 56.4%62 W · 48 L | +3.5wins | +0.03per pick | 53cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7a49…d9f5backed No | 33c | 341.5$114 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$113.65 | 407 | 44.5%181 W · 226 L | -5.1wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -20.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5151…4e57backed Yes | 24c | 337.5$81 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$256.5 | 43 | 53.5%23 W · 20 L | +3.2wins | +0.08per pick | 46cpaid | +11.2%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4597…272bbacked Yes | 24c | 337.5$81 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$256.5 | 32 | 46.9%15 W · 17 L | +2.1wins | +0.07per pick | 40cpaid | +5.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xde53…e5bebacked No | 77c | 318.7$245 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$245.4 | 77 | 58.4%45 W · 32 L | -3.7wins | -0.05per pick | 63cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1d94…9100backed Yes | 23c | 260$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$200.2 | 762 | 34.8%265 W · 497 L | +9.4wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x460a…d738backed Yes | 23c | 217.39$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$167.39 | 68 | 27.9%19 W · 49 L | -1.1wins | -0.02per pick | 30cpaid | -10%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x96e1…2808backed No | 77c | 212.99$164 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$164 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.8wins | -0.77per pick | 77cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1b2c…5e10backed Yes | 24c | 208.33$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$158.33 | 112 | 50.9%57 W · 55 L | +6.1wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | +7.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4818…bf0bbacked Yes | 25c | 205.08$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$153.81 | 61 | 44.3%27 W · 34 L | -1.1wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -17.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4f6b…075fbacked No | 76c | 200$152 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$152 | 99 | 51.5%51 W · 48 L | -3.0wins | -0.03per pick | 55cpaid | -9.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6c0b…43cbbacked Yes | 23c | 165.97$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$127.79 | 228 | 29.4%67 W · 161 L | +1.3wins | +0.01per pick | 29cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb1a9…d58bbacked Yes | 25c | 160$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$120 | 32 | 37.5%12 W · 20 L | +2.4wins | +0.07per pick | 30cpaid | +24.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2367…c5b3backed Yes | 32c | 156.25$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$106.25 | 11 | 36.4%4 W · 7 L | +0.4wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfefb…4b5dbacked No | 16c | 151.58$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.83 | 238 | 42.9%102 W · 136 L | +2.7wins | +0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -13.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5487…a014backed No | 76c | 148.2$113 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$112.63 | 300 | 54%162 W · 138 L | +10.2wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x727d…1589backed No | 11c | 147.51$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.41 | 72 | 30.6%22 W · 50 L | -4.6wins | -0.06per pick | 37cpaid | -32.4%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x182c…3babbacked No | 77c | 136.36$105 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$105 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.8wins | -0.77per pick | 77cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe7f2…a363backed No | 77c | 133.77$103 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$103 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.8wins | -0.77per pick | 77cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x84f7…ade1backed No | 75c | 100$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75 | 185 | 45.9%85 W · 100 L | +1.3wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | +7.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1fe4…3f12backed Yes | 32c | 100$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$68 | 12 | 25%3 W · 9 L | -1.8wins | -0.15per pick | 40cpaid | -36.7%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe20a…e469backed No | 75c | 100$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75 | 147 | 56.5%83 W · 64 L | +3.4wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf44e…6e9ebacked Yes | 23c | 86.96$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$66.96 | 4 | 100%4 W · 0 L | +3.0wins | +0.74per pick | 26cpaid | +287.5%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xd306…4320backed Yes | 23c | 86.91$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$66.92 | 52 | 32.7%17 W · 35 L | +3.4wins | +0.07per pick | 26cpaid | +67.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbc08…267abacked Yes | 24c | 83.33$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$63.33 | 17 | 47.1%8 W · 9 L | +0.3wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -11.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x15ac…f3babacked Yes | 60c | 83$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.2 | 25 | 52%13 W · 12 L | +0.4wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf65d…9e25backed Yes | 74c | 82.85$61 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.54 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.2wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -26.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf009…19e9backed Yes | 31c | 64.52$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.52 | 125 | 38.4%48 W · 77 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 39cpaid | -4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xab21…cd27backed Yes | 35c | 56.67$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.67 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +1.5wins | +0.31per pick | 49cpaid | +70.2%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc758…8574backed No | 38c | 52.63$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 129 | 51.2%66 W · 63 L | +12.1wins | +0.09per pick | 42cpaid | +14.9%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xddd7…1596backed No | 76c | 50$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38 | 258 | 55.4%143 W · 115 L | +5.5wins | +0.02per pick | 53cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9bbb…92efbacked Yes | 23c | 50$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.5 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +1.0wins | +0.26per pick | 24cpaid | +94.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3397…9ec1backed Yes | 34c | 50$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | +2.3wins | +0.29per pick | 33cpaid | +70.4%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x58e0…ebecbacked Yes | 31c | 48.39$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.39 | 38 | 60.5%23 W · 15 L | +1.9wins | +0.05per pick | 56cpaid | +13.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1e3b…e3babacked Yes | 31c | 48.39$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.39 | 19 | 36.8%7 W · 12 L | +3.0wins | +0.16per pick | 21cpaid | +52.8%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xde04…fa37backed Yes | 77c | 48$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.04 | 282 | 41.5%117 W · 165 L | -7.9wins | -0.03per pick | 44cpaid | -16.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x21c2…6749backed Yes | 32c | 44$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.78 | 65 | 53.8%35 W · 30 L | +2.4wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xec25…dec6backed Yes | 33c | 38.07$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.57 | 19 | 63.2%12 W · 7 L | +1.4wins | +0.07per pick | 56cpaid | +17.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfc8f…3782backed No | 36c | 36.89$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.44 | 119 | 31.1%37 W · 82 L | -9.8wins | -0.08per pick | 39cpaid | -23.7%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xa4ba…c5d8backed No | 77c | 32$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.64 | 151 | 60.9%92 W · 59 L | +3.1wins | +0.02per pick | 59cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6ad8…9bc1backed No | 76c | 31.6$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.02 | 51 | 37.3%19 W · 32 L | -4.3wins | -0.09per pick | 46cpaid | -28.8%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xd9e0…05f2backed No | 70c | 30$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21 | 116 | 44%51 W · 65 L | -3.6wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -27.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xab41…c453backed No | 76c | 23.8$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.18 | 45 | 37.8%17 W · 28 L | -1.8wins | -0.04per pick | 42cpaid | -8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd1f0…6fb4backed No | 76c | 19.99$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.19 | 20 | 60%12 W · 8 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 60cpaid | -3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1fc7…55f6backed No | 77c | 18.35$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.16 | 33 | 60.6%20 W · 13 L | +1.3wins | +0.04per pick | 57cpaid | +14.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa870…2cd1backed No | 76c | 14.14$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.75 | 112 | 81.3%91 W · 21 L | +6.1wins | +0.05per pick | 76cpaid | +7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Bundesliga and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will VfL Wolfsburg vs. 1. FC Heidenheim 1846 end in a draw?this page
- Will 1. FC Heidenheim 1846 win on 2026-01-17?No won
- Will VfL Wolfsburg win on 2026-01-17?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.