Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 12°C on February 21?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x4341f2c0f7523b911a113ba3f7acd301daed3ca2853e3ad7142618c5c18e707d
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $17,577
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $16,280
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $17,577 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 38 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x1f66…4c8dbacked Yes | 1c | 2,551$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.45 | 2,267 | 18%407 W · 1,860 L | -9.5wins | 0.00per pick | 18cpaid | -14.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1838…29b4backed Yes | 6c | 914.7$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.26 | 963 | 13.7%132 W · 831 L | +33.9wins | +0.04per pick | 10cpaid | +35.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x42fd…96c0backed Yes | 16c | 900$144 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$144 | 20 | 60%12 W · 8 L | +3.5wins | +0.18per pick | 42cpaid | +6.4%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x57ee…8112backed Yes | 6c | 809.07$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.56 | 1,727 | 18%311 W · 1,416 L | +74.3wins | +0.04per pick | 14cpaid | +11%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc9e6…0f82backed Yes | 22c | 499.99$110 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$110 | 56 | 19.6%11 W · 45 L | -1.4wins | -0.03per pick | 22cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaa28…090bbacked Yes | 13c | 272.96$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.08 | 2,239 | 15%335 W · 1,904 L | +54.6wins | +0.02per pick | 13cpaid | +24%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x89b4…55bcbacked Yes | 15c | 267.45$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.83 | 930 | 34%316 W · 614 L | +53.0wins | +0.06per pick | 28cpaid | +13.2%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5368…2d62backed Yes | 18c | 262.44$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.94 | 1,804 | 27.4%494 W · 1,310 L | +27.6wins | +0.02per pick | 26cpaid | +14.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd6ee…37a2backed Yes | 13c | 231.12$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.59 | 1,592 | 30.8%491 W · 1,101 L | -6.4wins | 0.00per pick | 31cpaid | -24.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xeb01…43bbbacked Yes | 23c | 218.38$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.49 | 739 | 27.3%202 W · 537 L | +10.3wins | +0.01per pick | 26cpaid | -6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7d72…8e62backed Yes | 9c | 200$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17 | 1,817 | 8.1%148 W · 1,669 L | -1.2wins | 0.00per pick | 8cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcf37…993fbacked Yes | 11c | 187.42$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.37 | 656 | 25.8%169 W · 487 L | -13.2wins | -0.02per pick | 28cpaid | -35.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 22c | 164.85$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.67 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4b40…96e3backed No | 75c | 143.74$108 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.94 | 522 | 45%235 W · 287 L | -13.2wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -14.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe31e…ec88backed Yes | 10c | 138.93$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.61 | 559 | 19.1%107 W · 452 L | +16.9wins | +0.03per pick | 16cpaid | +34.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf05b…d0b7backed Yes | 16c | 113.95$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.24 | 296 | 42.9%127 W · 169 L | +19.5wins | +0.07per pick | 36cpaid | +12.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa4bd…e8a2backed Yes | 13c | 110$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.6 | 540 | 37.4%202 W · 338 L | +6.6wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -13.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf6f7…e0dabacked Yes | 13c | 100$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 1,861 | 23.8%443 W · 1,418 L | +47.9wins | +0.03per pick | 21cpaid | +13.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6297…517ebacked Yes | 23c | 94.38$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.67 | 1,643 | 27.8%456 W · 1,187 L | +117.6wins | +0.07per pick | 21cpaid | +33%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x77b5…9170backed No | 77c | 87.46$67 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.98 | 3,175 | 62.7%1,992 W · 1,183 L | +12.6wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc254…3f73backed Yes | 24c | 78.73$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.87 | 8 | 12.5%1 W · 7 L | -3.1wins | -0.38per pick | 51cpaid | -83.1%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x7dfd…8476backed Yes | 25c | 76.57$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.93 | 22 | 18.2%4 W · 18 L | -1.0wins | -0.05per pick | 23cpaid | -50.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2845…b637backed Yes | 23c | 75.5$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.25 | 853 | 30.7%262 W · 591 L | +28.2wins | +0.03per pick | 27cpaid | +11.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x093a…1b3fbacked No | 76c | 71.1$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.1 | 19 | 73.7%14 W · 5 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 72cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x906f…371abacked No | 78c | 69$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.47 | 2,495 | 69.9%1,744 W · 751 L | +80.3wins | +0.03per pick | 67cpaid | +5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa1e7…b41bbacked Yes | 20c | 58.42$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.83 | 17 | 58.8%10 W · 7 L | +0.5wins | +0.03per pick | 56cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4ce3…4291backed Yes | 22c | 50$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 2,165 | 23.8%516 W · 1,649 L | +83.8wins | +0.04per pick | 20cpaid | +14.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9526…8f87backed Yes | 24c | 40.97$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 39 | 41%16 W · 23 L | +1.0wins | +0.03per pick | 38cpaid | +19.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfad4…379bbacked No | 79c | 40.1$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.53 | 33 | 24.2%8 W · 25 L | -1.5wins | -0.04per pick | 29cpaid | -29.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xade1…9040backed Yes | 25c | 40$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 338 | 39.9%135 W · 203 L | +0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6f43…a080backed No | 75c | 37.6$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.4 | 118 | 55.1%65 W · 53 L | -3.3wins | -0.03per pick | 58cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6d54…ee01backed No | 80c | 30$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6 | 80 | 72.5%58 W · 22 L | +0.9wins | +0.01per pick | 71cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1345…e4debacked No | 80c | 28.61$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.76 | 76 | 76.3%58 W · 18 L | +3.0wins | +0.04per pick | 72cpaid | +4.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x98d1…019abacked Yes | 36c | 27.83$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 255 | 36.9%94 W · 161 L | +17.3wins | +0.07per pick | 30cpaid | +24.7%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x517e…4fb2backed No | 78c | 26.73$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.94 | 90 | 76.7%69 W · 21 L | +4.7wins | +0.05per pick | 71cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe233…c70bbacked No | 80c | 25$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5 | 549 | 66.7%366 W · 183 L | -27.1wins | -0.05per pick | 72cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2cc0…b5f2backed No | 79c | 23.15$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.95 | 133 | 60.9%81 W · 52 L | -0.8wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7cde…1af7backed No | 80c | 20.01$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4 | 201 | 46.3%93 W · 108 L | -5.1wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -24.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 12°C on February 21?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 10°C on February 21?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 11°C on February 21?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 13°C on February 21?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 14°C or higher on February 21?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 8°C on February 21?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 9°C on February 21?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.