TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Weather · resolved market

Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 14°C or higher on February 21?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Yesof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$37,685
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$42,595

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $37,685 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 98 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Weather
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xd266…f250backed No1c15,065$128 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$128.431369.2%9 W · 4 L+0.6wins+0.04per pick65cpaid-0.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x1558…4f75backed No12c2,180$257 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$257.154271.4%30 W · 12 L+7.1wins+0.17per pick55cpaid+28%equal weight62+0.11 edge/pick
0x9582…0ddbbacked Yes46c1,007$467 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$540.111930.3%36 W · 83 L+5.1wins+0.04per pick26cpaid-9.2%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x1c78…42e6backed No11c899.4$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10059742%251 W · 346 L+96.8wins+0.16per pick26cpaid+31.7%equal weight67+0.16 edge/pick
0xf911…8d8ebacked No66c501.65$329 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$329.210246.1%47 W · 55 L-4.0wins-0.04per pick50cpaid-6.4%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xc9e6…0f82backed Yes13c500$65 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4355619.6%11 W · 45 L-1.4wins-0.03per pick22cpaid-9.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xeb01…43bbbacked No44c382.17$169 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$169.1773927.3%202 W · 537 L+10.3wins+0.01per pick26cpaid-6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x77f0…2b1fbacked No64c303.94$195 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$194.893,02849.8%1,509 W · 1,519 L+16.8wins+0.01per pick49cpaid+10.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x2b13…62d3backed Yes33c291.87$97 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$194.651,05231.2%328 W · 724 L-8.4wins-0.01per pick32cpaid-9.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x0f8b…4eb1backed Yes54c271.89$148 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$123.751127.3%3 W · 8 L+0.1wins+0.01per pick27cpaid+67.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9e6a…5192backed Yes39c267.22$105 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$162.458740.2%35 W · 52 L+2.1wins+0.02per pick38cpaid+37.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x1c26…6e31backed No39c252.47$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$99.686050.9%438 W · 422 L+29.9wins+0.03per pick47cpaid-1.8%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x03bb…cb41backed Yes40c251.74$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$151.742030%6 W · 14 L+0.2wins+0.01per pick29cpaid+3.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7482…6cf6backed Yes31c200$62 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1383534.3%12 W · 23 L+0.8wins+0.02per pick32cpaid+10.8%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x1f66…4c8dbacked No50c190.21$95 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$95.112,26718%407 W · 1,860 L-9.5wins0.00per pick18cpaid-14.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8116…b2a8backed Yes45c189.24$85 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$104.4212152.1%63 W · 58 L-1.7wins-0.01per pick53cpaid-7.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x0136…6e7bbacked Yes63c182.91$116 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$66.911100%1 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.37per pick63cpaid+57.7%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x4aa1…596cbacked Yes22c160.79$36 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$12521448.6%104 W · 110 L+4.5wins+0.02per pick46cpaid+9.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xfad4…379bbacked Yes26c160$41 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$118.813324.2%8 W · 25 L-1.5wins-0.04per pick29cpaid-29.3%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x8845…06bcbacked No72c148.18$107 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$107.359135.2%32 W · 59 L+3.0wins+0.03per pick32cpaid+14.2%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x4b40…96e3backed No69c143.73$99 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$99.1752245%235 W · 287 L-13.2wins-0.03per pick48cpaid-14.4%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xa4bd…e8a2backed No11c140.66$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16.0854037.4%202 W · 338 L+6.6wins+0.01per pick36cpaid-13.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xbc13…5eb6backed No37c135.07$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$49.9851762.3%322 W · 195 L-15.5wins-0.03per pick65cpaid-6%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x3681…4e48backed No63c132.66$83 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$82.921,37556%770 W · 605 L+25.7wins+0.02per pick54cpaid+6.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xbb50…7bfcbacked No73c123.57$91 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$90.5717243.6%75 W · 97 L+5.4wins+0.03per pick40cpaid+6.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x9dbe…39b6backed Yes38c122.29$46 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$76.29850%4 W · 4 L+1.2wins+0.15per pick35cpaid+106.5%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xe6c8…b8c0backed Yes20c122.2$24 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$97.7632830.5%100 W · 228 L+1.3wins0.00per pick30cpaid-1.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xef0f…1dc9backed Yes30c119.99$36 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$83.9910650%53 W · 53 L+11.0wins+0.10per pick40cpaid+27%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x3a38…ada9backed Yes30c100$30 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7023633.1%78 W · 158 L-1.8wins-0.01per pick34cpaid-7.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x18d7…64ccbacked Yes45c100$45 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$55944.4%4 W · 5 L+0.3wins+0.03per pick41cpaid+17.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xa67d…c6f9backed Yes31c99.98$31 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$68.9925029.2%73 W · 177 L+2.9wins+0.01per pick28cpaid+1.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xa49b…7054backed Yes39c99.27$39 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$60.377,48137.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L+97.4wins+0.01per pick36cpaid+6.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xaa8e…31c0backed Yes48c93.28$45 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$48.121241.7%5 W · 7 L+1.4wins+0.12per pick30cpaid+49.8%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xf9c4…e119backed Yes54c92.59$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$42.768940.4%36 W · 53 L-2.8wins-0.03per pick44cpaid-21.9%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xb1f8…2734backed No51c88.04$45 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$44.7231341.5%130 W · 183 L+18.3wins+0.06per pick36cpaid-1.3%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xec25…dec6backed No64c87.9$56 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5611172.1%80 W · 31 L+7.6wins+0.07per pick65cpaid+8.5%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0xfa28…c37ebacked Yes48c87.46$42 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$45.733,93935.3%1,392 W · 2,547 L+35.4wins+0.01per pick34cpaid+0.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x3eec…9d96backed Yes13c86.57$11 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$75.111942.1%8 W · 11 L+1.7wins+0.09per pick33cpaid+45.8%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xc6c8…d7c5backed No69c85.71$59 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$59.4324149.8%120 W · 121 L-10.5wins-0.04per pick54cpaid-10.3%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x044f…d1f1backed No67c85.21$57 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$56.988,16249.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L+269.7wins+0.03per pick46cpaid+5.8%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x847e…db5fbacked Yes33c83.38$27 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$56.02333.3%1 W · 2 L+0.6wins+0.19per pick15cpaid+1.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x01b2…9cf8backed No40c82.16$33 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$32.511656.3%9 W · 7 L-1.0wins-0.06per pick62cpaid-12.1%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xd6ee…37a2backed Yes19c80.69$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$65.331,59230.8%491 W · 1,101 L-6.4wins0.00per pick31cpaid-24.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x89b4…55bcbacked No55c75$41 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$41.393034%316 W · 614 L+53.0wins+0.06per pick28cpaid+13.2%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x2be6…e054backed No19c74.9$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.334319.5%67 W · 276 L+22.4wins+0.07per pick13cpaid+19%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x520b…100abacked No79c73.79$58 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$58.358565.9%56 W · 29 L-0.2wins0.00per pick66cpaid-6.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xcc09…88edbacked Yes50c72.31$36 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$36.2156627.7%157 W · 409 L+17.8wins+0.03per pick25cpaid-1.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x77b5…9170backed No50c71.3$36 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$35.553,17562.7%1,992 W · 1,183 L+12.6wins0.00per pick62cpaid-1.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb3a3…fa3cbacked Yes46c71$32 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$38.646217.7%11 W · 51 L-6.7wins-0.11per pick29cpaid-66.8%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0x59c9…c4a9backed No52c70.64$36 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$36.43366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.3wins+0.09per pick57cpaid+11.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x8d46…cf8bbacked Yes46c69.98$32 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$37.795848.3%28 W · 30 L-1.2wins-0.02per pick50cpaid-12.9%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xb4c4…1513backed Yes45c65.99$30 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$36.2914338.5%55 W · 88 L+4.3wins+0.03per pick35cpaid+9.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xaa77…3ccebacked Yes17c64.72$11 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$53.54450%2 W · 2 L+1.3wins+0.34per pick16cpaid+142.5%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x75ef…73f0backed Yes39c64.6$25 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$39.6520%1 W · 4 L-0.1wins-0.03per pick23cpaid-48.3%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0xb43b…f637backed Yes48c63.97$31 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$32.972100%2 W · 0 L+1.1wins+0.56per pick44cpaid+132.3%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x04eb…bae1backed Yes26c63$17 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$46.391100%1 W · 0 L+0.7wins+0.74per pick26cpaid+279.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x61a7…4743backed Yes38c62.49$24 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$38.922030%6 W · 14 L-5.8wins-0.29per pick59cpaid-45%equal weight36-0.13 edge/pick
0x687f…b7c5backed Yes50c61.36$31 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$30.68333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.4wins-0.13per pick46cpaid-33.3%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x6f43…a080backed Yes34c60$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$39.611855.1%65 W · 53 L-3.3wins-0.03per pick58cpaid-5.7%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xcbbc…b5d0backed Yes77c59.7$46 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$13.874,49619.6%882 W · 3,614 L+49.5wins+0.01per pick19cpaid-1.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x7c5f…ba5bbacked Yes47c59.45$28 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$31.511100%1 W · 0 L+0.5wins+0.53per pick47cpaid+112.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xcf37…993fbacked No65c56.24$37 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$36.5965625.8%169 W · 487 L-13.2wins-0.02per pick28cpaid-35.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x8d8b…20d0backed Yes43c55$24 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$31.351127.3%3 W · 8 L-1.9wins-0.17per pick45cpaid-39.2%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xaa28…090bbacked Yes20c53.6$11 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$42.812,23915%335 W · 1,904 L+54.6wins+0.02per pick13cpaid+24%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x358e…bc71backed No70c50$35 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$351216.7%2 W · 10 L-3.0wins-0.25per pick42cpaid-48.4%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0xad13…7ed6backed No29c50$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.4591967%616 W · 303 L-10.6wins-0.01per pick68cpaid-2.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe233…c70bbacked No78c50$39 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3954966.7%366 W · 183 L-27.1wins-0.05per pick72cpaid-8.1%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x9868…907ebacked Yes25c47.62$12 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$35.5934618.8%65 W · 281 L+15.2wins+0.04per pick14cpaid-15.6%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xf8bc…a72bbacked Yes53c47.06$25 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$22.06250%1 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.14per pick64cpaid-5.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xb40e…7cc9backed No51c45.65$23 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$23.1912,49819.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L-2,667.3wins-0.21per pick41cpaid-66.8%equal weight26-0.21 edge/pick
0x36fa…1125backed No55c43$24 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$23.651656.3%9 W · 7 L+0.3wins+0.02per pick54cpaid+20.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xfd8e…aea4backed No70c40.49$28 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$28.312,26879.5%1,803 W · 465 L+98.4wins+0.04per pick75cpaid+5.8%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xc448…085ebacked Yes45c40$18 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$21.921919.6%43 W · 176 L-7.3wins-0.03per pick23cpaid-35%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x2698…2941backed Yes52c39.97$21 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$19.021,01161.2%619 W · 392 L+14.2wins+0.01per pick60cpaid-1.4%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x3910…ba74backed Yes51c38.78$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1917231.4%54 W · 118 L+6.4wins+0.04per pick28cpaid-4%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x79b6…e042backed No41c37.1$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.0744553.3%237 W · 208 L-21.2wins-0.05per pick58cpaid-13.7%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xaafc…ec67backed No61c36.07$22 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2244757.3%256 W · 191 L+53.9wins+0.12per pick45cpaid+24%equal weight63+0.11 edge/pick
0x580e…2685backed Yes34c35.77$12 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$23.77728.6%2 W · 5 L+0.9wins+0.13per pick16cpaid-23.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x5936…60fdbacked No52c35.51$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18.610%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.52per pick52cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x5360…3b12backed No57c35.08$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20.15425%1 W · 3 L-0.8wins-0.20per pick45cpaid-56.1%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xc552…c3abbacked Yes36c35.04$13 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$22.442227.3%6 W · 16 L-3.0wins-0.14per pick41cpaid-54.8%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0xb099…df6cbacked Yes63c30.24$19 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$11.245532.7%18 W · 37 L-0.1wins0.00per pick33cpaid-20.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6eb3…d405backed No59c28$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16.610247.1%48 W · 54 L-1.3wins-0.01per pick48cpaid-14%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xb1c9…1936backed Yes39c27.31$11 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$16.66742.9%3 W · 4 L+0.6wins+0.08per pick35cpaid+21.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xa7e2…b1a9backed No66c27.29$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17.943125.8%8 W · 23 L-3.7wins-0.12per pick38cpaid-40.7%equal weight43-0.07 edge/pick
0xc266…04a1backed Yes42c25.67$11 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$14.911250%6 W · 6 L-1.2wins-0.10per pick60cpaid-16.4%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x98d1…019abacked Yes44c25$11 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$13.9525536.9%94 W · 161 L+17.3wins+0.07per pick30cpaid+24.7%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x0b9e…154abacked No45c23$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.354671.7%33 W · 13 L+3.5wins+0.08per pick64cpaid+6.6%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x358b…3722backed Yes66c21.81$14 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7.4152533.1%174 W · 351 L+21.7wins+0.04per pick29cpaid+27.4%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xb497…8fb0backed Yes69c21.57$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6.691553.3%8 W · 7 L-0.3wins-0.02per pick55cpaid-15.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6396…aff3backed No55c20.8$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.443826.3%10 W · 28 L-3.8wins-0.10per pick36cpaid-61.5%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0xbd6e…b651backed No64c20$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.84667.4%31 W · 15 L-1.0wins-0.02per pick70cpaid-3.8%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x540f…4bf4backed Yes50c20$10 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$106467.2%43 W · 21 L+1.5wins+0.02per pick65cpaid-1.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x74e7…3de8backed No50c20$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$103534.3%12 W · 23 L-4.3wins-0.12per pick47cpaid-38.9%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x7e7f…c287backed Yes57c19.35$11 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8.356944.9%31 W · 38 L-4.8wins-0.07per pick52cpaid-19.1%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x7be4…c73cbacked Yes54c18.68$10 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8.59425%1 W · 3 L0.0wins-0.01per pick26cpaid-53.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xdd7a…7bfbbacked No75c14.99$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.244,96168.3%3,386 W · 1,575 L+65.6wins+0.01per pick67cpaid+1.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xa870…2cd1backed No80c14.53$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.6217978.8%141 W · 38 L+1.3wins+0.01per pick78cpaid+0.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.