Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 8°C or higher on April 11?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x436a7ace2e3d3942b9c0690cf9c4b0a1309026012c61713558e91bfdb038d363
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $12,316
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $15,726
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $12,316 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 47 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x1e6e…cfe9backed Yes | 70c | 769.03$541 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$228.24 | 36 | 38.9%14 W · 22 L | -3.2wins | -0.09per pick | 48cpaid | -35.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 63c | 278.84$177 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$102.01 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd80a…c714backed Yes | 62c | 221.77$136 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$85.37 | 1,977 | 18.8%371 W · 1,606 L | +8.0wins | 0.00per pick | 18cpaid | -18.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x94da…25b5backed No | 9c | 220.2$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.52 | 370 | 7.8%29 W · 341 L | -5.2wins | -0.01per pick | 9cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd251…4d37backed Yes | 53c | 200$106 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$94 | 1,697 | 42.4%720 W · 977 L | +56.9wins | +0.03per pick | 39cpaid | +11.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x40ea…6523backed Yes | 61c | 185.01$113 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$72.14 | 40 | 60%24 W · 16 L | +3.4wins | +0.09per pick | 51cpaid | +43.2%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa912…297fbacked No | 10c | 176.45$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.4 | 636 | 56.1%357 W · 279 L | +1.9wins | 0.00per pick | 56cpaid | -4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed No | 14c | 159.94$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.8 | 7,148 | 9.3%666 W · 6,482 L | -1,105.8wins | -0.15per pick | 25cpaid | -75.9%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0xfd36…a832backed Yes | 62c | 155.93$96 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$59.47 | 650 | 43.4%282 W · 368 L | -3.5wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeda0…7dffbacked No | 23c | 147.4$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.77 | 695 | 20%139 W · 556 L | -44.4wins | -0.06per pick | 26cpaid | -53.5%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6400…331abacked Yes | 63c | 138.97$88 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.2 | 424 | 69.1%293 W · 131 L | +8.4wins | +0.02per pick | 67cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x14f4…5944backed No | 12c | 130.39$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.65 | 35 | 31.4%11 W · 24 L | +2.9wins | +0.08per pick | 23cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf767…f052backed No | 13c | 130.15$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.06 | 84 | 61.9%52 W · 32 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 61cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5c38…f194backed No | 35c | 129.99$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.91 | 2,517 | 47.2%1,188 W · 1,329 L | +52.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc7d0…4e57backed No | 17c | 125.4$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.73 | 45 | 51.1%23 W · 22 L | -2.1wins | -0.05per pick | 56cpaid | -17.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed No | 28c | 116.27$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.68 | 7,481 | 37.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L | +97.4wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x477f…9144backed Yes | 79c | 97.2$77 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.41 | 97 | 41.2%40 W · 57 L | +4.8wins | +0.05per pick | 36cpaid | +17.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xda7b…3c9fbacked No | 33c | 90.91$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 125 | 67.2%84 W · 41 L | +3.4wins | +0.03per pick | 64cpaid | +4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3cb7…1a88backed No | 15c | 90.47$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.33 | 999 | 49.5%495 W · 504 L | +1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4248…60abbacked No | 40c | 80.94$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.05 | 2,219 | 58.7%1,303 W · 916 L | -11.5wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 15c | 72.62$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.95 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x13d3…415ebacked Yes | 69c | 70$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.5 | 422 | 53.1%224 W · 198 L | +9.8wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf2bb…ae21backed Yes | 69c | 69.16$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.76 | 353 | 62.9%222 W · 131 L | +16.9wins | +0.05per pick | 58cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x286d…825abacked No | 33c | 68.97$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.96 | 625 | 55.2%345 W · 280 L | -12.1wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5264…9a63backed Yes | 50c | 63.24$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.86 | 740 | 23.9%177 W · 563 L | +23.6wins | +0.03per pick | 21cpaid | +23.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdc3f…f038backed No | 42c | 60$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.1 | 661 | 41.8%276 W · 385 L | -12.8wins | -0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -15.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7b20…62cbbacked Yes | 75c | 58.23$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.33 | 118 | 74.6%88 W · 30 L | +3.0wins | +0.03per pick | 72cpaid | +3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8971…809dbacked No | 21c | 57.01$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.93 | 1,959 | 46%901 W · 1,058 L | -51.3wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8f93…480bbacked No | 18c | 56.51$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.38 | 60 | 40%24 W · 36 L | -1.0wins | -0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa98a…a5a8backed No | 41c | 53.61$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.16 | 2,015 | 67.7%1,365 W · 650 L | +1.8wins | 0.00per pick | 68cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x044f…d1f1backed No | 32c | 51.12$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.41 | 8,162 | 49.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L | +269.7wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf967…1adfbacked Yes | 61c | 45$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.55 | 312 | 62.5%195 W · 117 L | +6.3wins | +0.02per pick | 60cpaid | +5.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x35e6…7a4dbacked No | 40c | 42.09$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.89 | 1,699 | 60.6%1,029 W · 670 L | -24.7wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2ffd…e7c6backed No | 44c | 38.4$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17 | 516 | 31.6%163 W · 353 L | -29.4wins | -0.06per pick | 37cpaid | -18.5%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6a8d…50f9backed Yes | 43c | 38$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.78 | 9,799 | 44.6%4,367 W · 5,432 L | +256.4wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe48b…fdc2backed Yes | 45c | 36.36$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20 | 619 | 29.1%180 W · 439 L | +21.8wins | +0.04per pick | 26cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x036d…e888backed Yes | 76c | 36.09$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.79 | 78 | 71.8%56 W · 22 L | +3.1wins | +0.04per pick | 68cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf1d6…e027backed Yes | 61c | 27.11$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.48 | 80 | 42.5%34 W · 46 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -19.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x98e9…2ea5backed No | 38c | 26.32$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 178 | 55.6%99 W · 79 L | +4.8wins | +0.03per pick | 53cpaid | +8.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x32f0…c659backed Yes | 62c | 23.4$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.89 | 235 | 47.7%112 W · 123 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x906f…371abacked Yes | 70c | 22.02$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.6 | 2,495 | 69.9%1,744 W · 751 L | +80.3wins | +0.03per pick | 67cpaid | +5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfa28…c37ebacked Yes | 78c | 21.32$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.67 | 3,939 | 35.3%1,392 W · 2,547 L | +35.4wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xea83…7393backed Yes | 54c | 20.57$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.46 | 1,445 | 60.1%868 W · 577 L | +5.0wins | 0.00per pick | 60cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0b87…9414backed Yes | 61c | 16.48$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.43 | 2,001 | 38.4%768 W · 1,233 L | +1.7wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x625f…5c20backed Yes | 76c | 15.4$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.69 | 96 | 66.7%64 W · 32 L | -5.7wins | -0.06per pick | 73cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5b13…6e6abacked Yes | 80c | 14.75$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2.95 | 31 | 38.7%12 W · 19 L | +2.1wins | +0.07per pick | 32cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xae47…638dbacked Yes | 74c | 14.65$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.85 | 525 | 71.2%374 W · 151 L | +4.7wins | +0.01per pick | 70cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 8°C or higher on April 11?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 5°C on April 11?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 6°C on April 11?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 7°C on April 11?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.