Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 8°C on May 2?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x438128b4c9efe20118364d8336177813edb907fc1c704be80c02667992cab3a9
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $13,170
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $14,294
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $13,170 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 55 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xde9c…e014backed Yes | 19c | 429.26$83 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$346.13 | 258 | 39.9%103 W · 155 L | +6.2wins | +0.02per pick | 38cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdaaf…051bbacked No | 67c | 417.2$278 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$278.36 | 131 | 60.3%79 W · 52 L | +13.9wins | +0.11per pick | 50cpaid | +22.4%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xae2e…40adbacked Yes | 26c | 364.79$97 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$268.23 | 295 | 20.7%61 W · 234 L | +7.8wins | +0.03per pick | 18cpaid | +25.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7b20…bc23backed No | 64c | 311.98$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$199.67 | 811 | 65.8%534 W · 277 L | -37.1wins | -0.05per pick | 70cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8d88…1e28backed No | 37c | 280.9$104 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$103.82 | 769 | 24.3%187 W · 582 L | -16.3wins | -0.02per pick | 26cpaid | -40.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa9bd…e555backed No | 77c | 258.33$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$199.9 | 80 | 35%28 W · 52 L | -8.4wins | -0.10per pick | 45cpaid | -54.8%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xb06a…52f5backed Yes | 63c | 245.77$155 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$90.74 | 5,832 | 36.7%2,138 W · 3,694 L | +211.1wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | -24.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0a5b…67a9backed Yes | 40c | 221.89$88 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$133.89 | 51 | 29.4%15 W · 36 L | -1.9wins | -0.04per pick | 33cpaid | -24.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x989a…b73fbacked Yes | 63c | 178.73$112 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$66.48 | 181 | 64.1%116 W · 65 L | +29.3wins | +0.16per pick | 48cpaid | +37%equal weight | 66+0.14 edge/pick |
| 0x2a87…a55abacked Yes | 28c | 162.36$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$116.49 | 1,112 | 35.1%390 W · 722 L | -13.2wins | -0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd93d…27a0backed Yes | 22c | 160.32$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$125.12 | 36 | 30.6%11 W · 25 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 30cpaid | +16.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf7a3…ad9ebacked Yes | 28c | 150$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$107.56 | 160 | 46.3%74 W · 86 L | -6.3wins | -0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x64da…2292backed Yes | 37c | 132.67$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$82.92 | 58 | 24.1%14 W · 44 L | -3.8wins | -0.06per pick | 31cpaid | -23.8%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xae68…064abacked No | 65c | 123.41$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80.21 | 2,555 | 63.8%1,631 W · 924 L | +38.4wins | +0.02per pick | 62cpaid | +8.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6a8d…50f9backed Yes | 35c | 115.18$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$74.71 | 9,799 | 44.6%4,367 W · 5,432 L | +256.4wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes | 21c | 107.03$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$84.93 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 35c | 105.6$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$68.99 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc8ab…6418backed Yes | 36c | 100$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$64 | 1,322 | 32.2%426 W · 896 L | -43.7wins | -0.03per pick | 36cpaid | -14.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6b98…925ebacked Yes | 17c | 96.02$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$79.7 | 138 | 42.8%59 W · 79 L | +11.9wins | +0.09per pick | 34cpaid | +164.9%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x9cb3…1367backed No | 51c | 93.5$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.72 | 1,554 | 33.1%515 W · 1,039 L | -66.6wins | -0.04per pick | 37cpaid | -27.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbe99…9ca7backed Yes | 23c | 84.99$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$65.4 | 669 | 26.2%175 W · 494 L | -1.7wins | 0.00per pick | 26cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdc38…eef3backed Yes | 16c | 76.94$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$64.45 | 88 | 33%29 W · 59 L | -3.7wins | -0.04per pick | 37cpaid | -15.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x017c…00c3backed Yes | 32c | 74.96$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.97 | 250 | 42.4%106 W · 144 L | +5.0wins | +0.02per pick | 40cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6f67…102cbacked Yes | 36c | 74.31$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.56 | 2,262 | 39.6%895 W · 1,367 L | -56.8wins | -0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2612…5289backed No | 59c | 73.85$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.9 | 3,048 | 40.5%1,234 W · 1,814 L | -121.5wins | -0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -23.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x044f…d1f1backed No | 66c | 66.99$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.21 | 8,162 | 49.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L | +269.7wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe75f…17c0backed Yes | 36c | 66.7$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.69 | 94 | 43.6%41 W · 53 L | +4.4wins | +0.05per pick | 39cpaid | +11.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed Yes | 25c | 61.56$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.18 | 7,481 | 37.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L | +97.4wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x86d8…52d5backed Yes | 35c | 61.32$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.86 | 82 | 29.3%24 W · 58 L | +3.2wins | +0.04per pick | 25cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2869…527dbacked Yes | 23c | 57.56$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.08 | 937 | 34.9%327 W · 610 L | -203.5wins | -0.22per pick | 57cpaid | -43.2%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0xed5c…8cf8backed Yes | 36c | 55.2$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.33 | 259 | 35.1%91 W · 168 L | +4.9wins | +0.02per pick | 33cpaid | +12.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x86e4…3afebacked Yes | 34c | 55$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.3 | 14 | 64.3%9 W · 5 L | +3.0wins | +0.22per pick | 43cpaid | +41.3%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x7a12…f7fdbacked No | 70c | 50$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35 | 160 | 45.6%73 W · 87 L | -2.5wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -9.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5964…35dfbacked No | 26c | 50$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 1,279 | 33.6%430 W · 849 L | -6.3wins | 0.00per pick | 34cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf899…0759backed Yes | 35c | 45$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.25 | 267 | 38.6%103 W · 164 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 39cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfb17…ee85backed Yes | 33c | 41$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.47 | 77 | 39%30 W · 47 L | -0.7wins | -0.01per pick | 40cpaid | 0%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x82ba…e6e8backed Yes | 33c | 32.87$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.02 | 42 | 35.7%15 W · 27 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 35cpaid | -5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xaad7…cf8fbacked No | 78c | 32.26$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.16 | 861 | 73.2%630 W · 231 L | +13.2wins | +0.02per pick | 72cpaid | +1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeb54…d452backed No | 64c | 31$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.84 | 4,525 | 65.6%2,967 W · 1,558 L | -134.0wins | -0.03per pick | 69cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2654…b45fbacked No | 49c | 30.87$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.22 | 1,089 | 59.4%647 W · 442 L | +2.3wins | 0.00per pick | 59cpaid | -4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8b48…fcf0backed Yes | 36c | 30.56$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.56 | 22 | 50%11 W · 11 L | +4.4wins | +0.20per pick | 30cpaid | +56%equal weight | 61+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x2e99…b482backed Yes | 35c | 30$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.5 | 425 | 44%187 W · 238 L | +15.1wins | +0.04per pick | 40cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3f30…f8debacked Yes | 37c | 30$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.9 | 3,830 | 47.1%1,805 W · 2,025 L | +63.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf114…6eccbacked Yes | 37c | 29.88$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.96 | 1,090 | 74.2%809 W · 281 L | +179.3wins | +0.16per pick | 58cpaid | +34.1%equal weight | 68+0.16 edge/pick |
| 0x3d1d…9e61backed No | 79c | 28.86$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.71 | 2,870 | 64.8%1,860 W · 1,010 L | -32.8wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdd7a…7bfbbacked No | 71c | 28$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.88 | 4,961 | 68.3%3,386 W · 1,575 L | +65.6wins | +0.01per pick | 67cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd802…d766backed No | 74c | 27.03$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 306 | 64.1%196 W · 110 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 64cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc69a…4d6bbacked No | 66c | 26.58$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.54 | 168 | 63.1%106 W · 62 L | -1.1wins | -0.01per pick | 64cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe422…4d64backed No | 45c | 25$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.25 | 2,065 | 43.6%900 W · 1,165 L | -11.3wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3507…71d7backed No | 70c | 21.43$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 333 | 73%243 W · 90 L | +1.1wins | 0.00per pick | 73cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x737d…d0febacked No | 69c | 21$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.43 | 66 | 62.1%41 W · 25 L | +1.7wins | +0.03per pick | 60cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6659…b7cabacked No | 65c | 20.52$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.34 | 938 | 37.6%353 W · 585 L | -14.5wins | -0.02per pick | 39cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5848…1e49backed No | 63c | 20$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.7 | 863 | 62.9%543 W · 320 L | -1.7wins | 0.00per pick | 63cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3172…e940backed No | 74c | 19.75$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.63 | 43 | 69.8%30 W · 13 L | +0.6wins | +0.01per pick | 68cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2779…5e59backed No | 70c | 17.08$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 38 | 60.5%23 W · 15 L | +2.9wins | +0.08per pick | 53cpaid | +30.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 8°C on May 2?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 10°C on May 2?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 6°C on May 2?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 7°C on May 2?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 9°C on May 2?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.