Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 7°C on May 2?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x5fc349d5167181078e0639ff8f153a96eb39bd6394c5ee3ad452cbbec064329a
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $12,034
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $12,104
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $12,034 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 78 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xadb0…1c8cbacked Yes | 79c | 306$240 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$240.44 | 541 | 43.1%233 W · 308 L | +9.7wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | +42.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8c7b…bd59backed No | 79c | 253$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.46 | 50 | 60%30 W · 20 L | +3.5wins | +0.07per pick | 53cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2a87…a55abacked Yes | 40c | 224.03$89 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$88.59 | 1,112 | 35.1%390 W · 722 L | -13.2wins | -0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc8ab…6418backed Yes | 55c | 199.98$111 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$110.99 | 1,322 | 32.2%426 W · 896 L | -43.7wins | -0.03per pick | 36cpaid | -14.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdc38…eef3backed Yes | 69c | 190.38$131 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$130.6 | 88 | 33%29 W · 59 L | -3.7wins | -0.04per pick | 37cpaid | -15.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6a8d…50f9backed Yes | 18c | 157.99$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.06 | 9,799 | 44.6%4,367 W · 5,432 L | +256.4wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7b20…bc23backed No | 64c | 156$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.42 | 811 | 65.8%534 W · 277 L | -37.1wins | -0.05per pick | 70cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf7a3…ad9ebacked No | 60c | 149.99$90 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$59.62 | 160 | 46.3%74 W · 86 L | -6.3wins | -0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1ce4…a3bdbacked No | 19c | 148.75$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$121.1 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.5wins | +0.18per pick | 49cpaid | +146%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd93d…27a0backed Yes | 43c | 142.27$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61.2 | 36 | 30.6%11 W · 25 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 30cpaid | +16.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc120…a7e3backed No | 21c | 120$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$94.48 | 1,299 | 54.1%703 W · 596 L | +24.7wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbd0d…1fb4backed Yes | 47c | 107$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.04 | 242 | 38%92 W · 150 L | +11.6wins | +0.05per pick | 33cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x85c0…e01dbacked No | 32c | 106.44$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$72.23 | 1,032 | 24.3%251 W · 781 L | +40.9wins | +0.04per pick | 20cpaid | +14.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xae8f…c820backed Yes | 39c | 101.11$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.32 | 635 | 38.1%242 W · 393 L | +6.2wins | +0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x938e…2ee3backed No | 54c | 97.31$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.81 | 76 | 59.2%45 W · 31 L | +5.7wins | +0.08per pick | 52cpaid | +19.2%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xae68…064abacked No | 73c | 92.81$67 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.46 | 2,555 | 63.8%1,631 W · 924 L | +38.4wins | +0.02per pick | 62cpaid | +8.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeb7f…0abbbacked Yes | 66c | 90.74$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 189 | 48.1%91 W · 98 L | -3.0wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -10.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xae2e…40adbacked No | 32c | 82.92$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.42 | 295 | 20.7%61 W · 234 L | +7.8wins | +0.03per pick | 18cpaid | +25.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x510f…a43cbacked Yes | 56c | 80.42$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.82 | 3,474 | 33.9%1,177 W · 2,297 L | -175.6wins | -0.05per pick | 39cpaid | -28.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1eea…00c5backed No | 62c | 79$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.02 | 224 | 50.4%113 W · 111 L | -2.4wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -14.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6a17…d13ebacked Yes | 51c | 78.09$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.46 | 106 | 33%35 W · 71 L | -2.9wins | -0.03per pick | 36cpaid | -17.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfc72…ad49backed Yes | 64c | 78.06$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 115 | 65.2%75 W · 40 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 66cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfa28…c37ebacked Yes | 25c | 75$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.75 | 3,939 | 35.3%1,392 W · 2,547 L | +35.4wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x017c…00c3backed Yes | 35c | 75$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.25 | 250 | 42.4%106 W · 144 L | +5.0wins | +0.02per pick | 40cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6b98…925ebacked Yes | 20c | 70.99$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.23 | 138 | 42.8%59 W · 79 L | +11.9wins | +0.09per pick | 34cpaid | +164.9%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x1030…2c1ebacked Yes | 34c | 70.59$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | -0.5wins | -0.05per pick | 38cpaid | -34%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6f0b…8202backed Yes | 36c | 69.87$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 104 | 41.3%43 W · 61 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 32c | 69.47$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.19 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf55f…8e92backed No | 30c | 68.52$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.62 | 165 | 48.5%80 W · 85 L | -13.3wins | -0.08per pick | 57cpaid | -19.9%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xe75f…17c0backed Yes | 39c | 66.69$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.01 | 94 | 43.6%41 W · 53 L | +4.4wins | +0.05per pick | 39cpaid | +11.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb06a…52f5backed Yes | 62c | 65.83$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.98 | 5,832 | 36.7%2,138 W · 3,694 L | +211.1wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | -24.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf899…0759backed Yes | 36c | 65$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.4 | 267 | 38.6%103 W · 164 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 39cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x804d…cf86backed No | 27c | 58.54$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.54 | 75 | 52%39 W · 36 L | +1.9wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 27c | 57.57$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.77 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xba0c…d35bbacked No | 21c | 50$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.5 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.13per pick | 37cpaid | +138.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x723e…083ebacked No | 21c | 50$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.5 | 43 | 34.9%15 W · 28 L | -6.3wins | -0.15per pick | 50cpaid | -29.7%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x7740…a03cbacked Yes | 69c | 50$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.5 | 74 | 25.7%19 W · 55 L | -4.7wins | -0.06per pick | 32cpaid | -18.2%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xab5e…47f6backed Yes | 73c | 50$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.5 | 59 | 35.6%21 W · 38 L | -2.0wins | -0.03per pick | 39cpaid | -9.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2986…b3a9backed No | 30c | 50$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35 | 2,995 | 31.4%940 W · 2,055 L | +41.6wins | +0.01per pick | 30cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5964…35dfbacked No | 26c | 49.99$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37 | 1,279 | 33.6%430 W · 849 L | -6.3wins | 0.00per pick | 34cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xed5c…8cf8backed Yes | 27c | 48.21$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.02 | 259 | 35.1%91 W · 168 L | +4.9wins | +0.02per pick | 33cpaid | +12.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0f60…026abacked No | 65c | 48.11$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.78 | 999 | 63.5%634 W · 365 L | -3.0wins | 0.00per pick | 64cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd3c7…7070backed No | 27c | 44.74$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.74 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +1.2wins | +0.25per pick | 35cpaid | +96.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0484…4830backed Yes | 42c | 43.13$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 5,186 | 47.2%2,447 W · 2,739 L | +66.7wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x94b7…feffbacked No | 60c | 41.67$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.67 | 29 | 48.3%14 W · 15 L | -1.2wins | -0.04per pick | 52cpaid | -17.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc69a…4d6bbacked Yes | 72c | 36.21$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.07 | 168 | 63.1%106 W · 62 L | -1.1wins | -0.01per pick | 64cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa708…9321backed No | 32c | 35.47$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.97 | 1,299 | 57.5%747 W · 552 L | +11.8wins | +0.01per pick | 57cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1b78…e589backed Yes | 29c | 35$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.22 | 379 | 42.5%161 W · 218 L | -3.0wins | -0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -8.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfb17…ee85backed Yes | 36c | 35$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.6 | 77 | 39%30 W · 47 L | -0.7wins | -0.01per pick | 40cpaid | 0%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1d14…abaebacked Yes | 79c | 35$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.6 | 30 | 60%18 W · 12 L | -0.6wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -13.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3d1d…9e61backed No | 36c | 34.52$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.07 | 2,870 | 64.8%1,860 W · 1,010 L | -32.8wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x072f…86b1backed No | 59c | 32.62$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.31 | 111 | 51.4%57 W · 54 L | -8.0wins | -0.07per pick | 59cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x4ec1…07a5backed No | 55c | 32.43$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.6 | 247 | 68.4%169 W · 78 L | +12.8wins | +0.05per pick | 63cpaid | +4.2%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xaad7…cf8fbacked No | 79c | 31.65$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.65 | 861 | 73.2%630 W · 231 L | +13.2wins | +0.02per pick | 72cpaid | +1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8d88…1e28backed No | 44c | 31.14$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.43 | 769 | 24.3%187 W · 582 L | -16.3wins | -0.02per pick | 26cpaid | -40.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xeb54…d452backed No | 64c | 31$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.16 | 4,525 | 65.6%2,967 W · 1,558 L | -134.0wins | -0.03per pick | 69cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2e99…b482backed Yes | 36c | 30$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.8 | 425 | 44%187 W · 238 L | +15.1wins | +0.04per pick | 40cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 56c | 29.69$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.06 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe7c9…d2b8backed No | 41c | 28.92$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.16 | 535 | 47.5%254 W · 281 L | -8.6wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +3.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 67c | 26.88$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x2706…c6bebacked No | 75c | 26.5$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.56 | 318 | 66%210 W · 108 L | -1.7wins | -0.01per pick | 67cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe422…4d64backed No | 45c | 24.99$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.74 | 2,065 | 43.6%900 W · 1,165 L | -11.3wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9cfd…dfe7backed Yes | 62c | 23.46$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.62 | 999 | 61.8%617 W · 382 L | +19.0wins | +0.02per pick | 60cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8971…809dbacked No | 57c | 22.3$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.5 | 1,959 | 46%901 W · 1,058 L | -51.3wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa139…5bc2backed Yes | 51c | 22.25$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.45 | 112 | 40.2%45 W · 67 L | -6.8wins | -0.06per pick | 46cpaid | -12.8%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked No | 75c | 22.02$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.5 | 2,119 | 36.1%764 W · 1,355 L | -12.1wins | -0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -26.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeee0…f00ebacked Yes | 75c | 20$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 171 | 40.4%69 W · 102 L | +4.9wins | +0.03per pick | 37cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa907…ba96backed Yes | 73c | 20$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.6 | 109 | 55%60 W · 49 L | -2.3wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5848…1e49backed No | 64c | 20$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.3 | 863 | 62.9%543 W · 320 L | -1.7wins | 0.00per pick | 63cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3507…71d7backed No | 75c | 19.87$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.87 | 333 | 73%243 W · 90 L | +1.1wins | 0.00per pick | 73cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9410…9160backed No | 61c | 19.67$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.67 | 420 | 49%206 W · 214 L | -15.9wins | -0.04per pick | 53cpaid | -2.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x34f4…c629backed No | 75c | 19.49$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.87 | 21 | 61.9%13 W · 8 L | -1.1wins | -0.05per pick | 67cpaid | -19.1%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaaf9…5211backed Yes | 77c | 19$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.63 | 70 | 65.7%46 W · 24 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2612…5289backed Yes | 65c | 18.46$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.03 | 3,048 | 40.5%1,234 W · 1,814 L | -121.5wins | -0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -23.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1632…ad5abacked No | 65c | 18.41$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.41 | 502 | 61%306 W · 196 L | -17.9wins | -0.04per pick | 65cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc423…2ccdbacked Yes | 67c | 18.39$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.32 | 524 | 44.1%231 W · 293 L | -9.0wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -6.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2869…527dbacked No | 66c | 17.96$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.1 | 937 | 34.9%327 W · 610 L | -203.5wins | -0.22per pick | 57cpaid | -43.2%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x5d0f…085cbacked Yes | 65c | 15.8$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.34 | 616 | 76.3%470 W · 146 L | +92.4wins | +0.15per pick | 61cpaid | +31.6%equal weight | 66+0.14 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 7°C on May 2?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 10°C on May 2?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 6°C on May 2?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 8°C on May 2?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 9°C on May 2?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.