NHL · resolved market
Spread: Penguins (-1.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x43902c79fada28b38e4a07d89160ef98fa6f04b9d2df9d5091d133991d204a18
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Predatorsof Penguins, Predators
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NHLevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $13,434
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $13,442
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $13,434 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 29 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NHL is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NHL | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x6239…c24fbacked Predators | 67c | 3,396$2,275 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,120.54 | 695 | 50.1%348 W · 347 L | -4.2wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe60a…6a47backed Penguins | 33c | 3,297$1,086 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,085.72 | 1,948 | 49.4%962 W · 986 L | +24.9wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x23bf…429abacked Predators | 69c | 3,000$2,070 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$930 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +1.4wins | +0.29per pick | 51cpaid | +64.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x719f…db30backed Penguins | 31c | 2,750$853 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$852.5 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +1.2wins | +0.30per pick | 45cpaid | +51.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x226b…cad6backed Penguins | 33c | 2,000$660 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$660 | 81 | 34.6%28 W · 53 L | -5.6wins | -0.07per pick | 42cpaid | -4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x16b2…a881backed Predators | 67c | 1,778$1,192 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$586.86 | 881 | 51.2%451 W · 430 L | +10.4wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0157…ca4ebacked Predators | 68c | 1,050$714 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$336 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -1.0wins | -0.25per pick | 49cpaid | -63.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4932…9eb0backed Penguins | 32c | 1,050$336 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$336 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | -15.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x460a…d738backed Penguins | 32c | 937.49$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$300 | 236 | 53.8%127 W · 109 L | +6.5wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdbb9…ed8dbacked Predators | 67c | 761$510 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$251.13 | 1,230 | 53.7%661 W · 569 L | -9.1wins | -0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd0ee…fb4fbacked Penguins | 33c | 666.67$220 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$220 | 95 | 43.2%41 W · 54 L | -2.9wins | -0.03per pick | 46cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1fcf…48e1backed Predators | 68c | 562.02$382 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$179.85 | 16 | 75%12 W · 4 L | +4.0wins | +0.25per pick | 50cpaid | +65.3%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x5137…1556backed Predators | 68c | 214.83$145 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$69.57 | 874 | 47%411 W · 463 L | +3.5wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdfc1…818dbacked Penguins | 32c | 84$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.88 | 303 | 49.5%150 W · 153 L | -13.2wins | -0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -9.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2160…bcb3backed Penguins | 33c | 60.61$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 403 | 40.9%165 W · 238 L | -4.9wins | -0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x28df…f940backed Predators | 70c | 57.14$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.14 | 41 | 73.2%30 W · 11 L | +3.0wins | +0.07per pick | 66cpaid | +9.2%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x30ef…70dfbacked Penguins | 30c | 57.14$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.14 | 533 | 37.5%200 W · 333 L | -0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6d58…8accbacked Penguins | 32c | 46.88$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 173 | 56.6%98 W · 75 L | -3.0wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -2.6%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6564…7246backed Predators | 69c | 43.48$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.48 | 20 | 75%15 W · 5 L | +1.2wins | +0.06per pick | 69cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3b9f…d2b9backed Predators | 67c | 39.99$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.2 | 12 | 33.3%4 W · 8 L | -1.3wins | -0.10per pick | 44cpaid | -31.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa8f5…1caabacked Predators | 68c | 38.91$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.45 | 479 | 44.7%214 W · 265 L | -25.8wins | -0.05per pick | 50cpaid | -11.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9dd9…08bdbacked Penguins | 31c | 35$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.9 | 1,054 | 42.5%448 W · 606 L | -25.3wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -17.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3b09…f95dbacked Predators | 70c | 34.8$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.44 | 33 | 78.8%26 W · 7 L | +3.2wins | +0.10per pick | 69cpaid | +12.9%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x0fbc…acc7backed Penguins | 33c | 33.73$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.13 | 46 | 28.3%13 W · 33 L | -5.0wins | -0.11per pick | 39cpaid | -19.8%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xe83c…5e8fbacked Predators | 65c | 28.57$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10 | 728 | 47.9%349 W · 379 L | -1.7wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4b15…f7dcbacked Predators | 70c | 28.57$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.57 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.30per pick | 70cpaid | +42.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2652…2a1dbacked Predators | 69c | 26.94$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.23 | 1,679 | 54.4%914 W · 765 L | +36.6wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x209e…8bb4backed Predators | 68c | 25$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8 | 311 | 48.2%150 W · 161 L | -2.4wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x742f…d673backed Predators | 59c | 19$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.79 | 421 | 44.4%187 W · 234 L | -28.0wins | -0.07per pick | 51cpaid | -17%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NHL and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: Penguins (-1.5)this page
- Penguins vs. PredatorsPredators won
- Penguins vs. Predators: O/U 6.5Under won
- Spread: Predators (-1.5)Penguins won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.