NHL · resolved market
Penguins vs. Predators: O/U 6.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xad5e6543f0a60be4a0befb15e2041d6c312f298593b7c81cb6ec38a5dfdcbbc6
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NHLevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $62,083
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $63,877
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $62,083 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 41 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NHL is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NHL | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x2245…0534backed Under | 53c | 18,876$10,004 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8,871.72 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +1.1wins | +0.54per pick | 46cpaid | +122.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0b61…35abbacked Over | 47c | 18,861$8,867 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$8,866.92 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.47per pick | 47cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x550d…2b82backed Over | 47c | 18,653$8,767 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$8,766.91 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.6wins | +0.20per pick | 46cpaid | +49.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6372…dbebbacked Under | 53c | 18,640$9,879 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8,760.8 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.9wins | +0.45per pick | 55cpaid | +82.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8f03…64d6backed Under | 54c | 8,167$4,410 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,756.66 | 100 | 50%50 W · 50 L | +3.2wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x699f…d5c6backed Over | 46c | 3,700$1,702 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,702 | 183 | 45.9%84 W · 99 L | -10.1wins | -0.06per pick | 51cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x08f2…28dfbacked Over | 29c | 3,236$924 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$923.53 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.0wins | -0.32per pick | 32cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5137…1556backed Over | 46c | 3,088$1,436 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,435.83 | 874 | 47%411 W · 463 L | +3.5wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9dd9…08bdbacked Under | 73c | 2,919$2,134 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$784.7 | 1,054 | 42.5%448 W · 606 L | -25.3wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -17.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe60a…6a47backed Over | 46c | 1,902$876 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$875.56 | 1,948 | 49.4%962 W · 986 L | +24.9wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0d16…85f3backed Under | 55c | 1,596$878 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$718.36 | 56 | 51.8%29 W · 27 L | +3.1wins | +0.06per pick | 46cpaid | +6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xee61…debfbacked Over | 45c | 1,569$707 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$707.27 | 2,894 | 51.3%1,484 W · 1,410 L | +58.0wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5139…a8dbbacked Over | 48c | 1,335$641 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$640.8 | 574 | 53.8%309 W · 265 L | +12.6wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1d3a…7b63backed Under | 53c | 1,170$620 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$549.9 | 866 | 49.9%432 W · 434 L | +1.1wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7860…4694backed Over | 19c | 1,042$202 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$202.45 | 17 | 58.8%10 W · 7 L | +3.2wins | +0.19per pick | 40cpaid | +48.8%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xf38b…b601backed Over | 46c | 1,000$460 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$460 | 33 | 27.3%9 W · 24 L | -6.3wins | -0.19per pick | 46cpaid | -39.8%equal weight | 38-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x6239…c24fbacked Under | 52c | 979.82$508 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$471.44 | 695 | 50.1%348 W · 347 L | -4.2wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x53ab…65aabacked Under | 52c | 799.99$416 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$383.99 | 49 | 38.8%19 W · 30 L | -6.3wins | -0.13per pick | 52cpaid | -26.2%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x3299…2d7bbacked Under | 79c | 688$543 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$145.44 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.5wins | +0.16per pick | 51cpaid | -11.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1f7d…5769backed Under | 77c | 534$409 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$125.28 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -18.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0e93…e4f7backed Under | 53c | 499.53$265 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$234.78 | 33 | 45.5%15 W · 18 L | -2.8wins | -0.08per pick | 54cpaid | -15.1%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7d5c…0182backed Under | 69c | 222$153 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$68.82 | 283 | 53%150 W · 133 L | +16.6wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | +14.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe6fe…6a33backed Over | 48c | 208.33$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 19 | 42.1%8 W · 11 L | -0.6wins | -0.03per pick | 45cpaid | -12.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb47f…d792backed Over | 31c | 150$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.08per pick | 42cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe098…8ee2backed Under | 54c | 142$77 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$65.32 | 11 | 45.5%5 W · 6 L | -0.8wins | -0.07per pick | 53cpaid | -24.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5b20…99e9backed Over | 46c | 130.43$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 1,093 | 51.8%566 W · 527 L | +14.2wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa8f5…1caabacked Over | 46c | 127.87$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.65 | 479 | 44.7%214 W · 265 L | -25.8wins | -0.05per pick | 50cpaid | -11.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4627…7c23backed Under | 55c | 100$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45 | 13 | 46.2%6 W · 7 L | -0.7wins | -0.06per pick | 52cpaid | -11.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5b0e…5b17backed Over | 46c | 97.72$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.95 | 31 | 22.6%7 W · 24 L | -9.3wins | -0.30per pick | 52cpaid | -56.3%equal weight | 32-0.17 edge/pick |
| 0x652b…813dbacked Over | 46c | 66.41$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.55 | 15 | 46.7%7 W · 8 L | -0.8wins | -0.05per pick | 52cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcd33…81d1backed Over | 47c | 65$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.55 | 27 | 59.3%16 W · 11 L | +1.8wins | +0.07per pick | 53cpaid | +16.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa924…b1b9backed Over | 17c | 60$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.2 | 337 | 35%118 W · 219 L | +10.5wins | +0.03per pick | 32cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5b1c…2a3ebacked Under | 54c | 55.56$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.56 | 35 | 57.1%20 W · 15 L | +1.7wins | +0.05per pick | 52cpaid | +12.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe83c…5e8fbacked Under | 51c | 48.98$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24 | 728 | 47.9%349 W · 379 L | -1.7wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xea7e…7f82backed Over | 49c | 48.98$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.49per pick | 49cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf5dc…48bbbacked Over | 48c | 43.15$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.71 | 18 | 27.8%5 W · 13 L | -4.5wins | -0.25per pick | 53cpaid | -46.7%equal weight | 38-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x8549…648ebacked Over | 30c | 39.87$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.96 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.30per pick | 30cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xad53…ef24backed Over | 33c | 30.9$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.1 | 74 | 32.4%24 W · 50 L | -7.0wins | -0.10per pick | 42cpaid | -26.5%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xba26…23c9backed Under | 54c | 22.99$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.58 | 1,143 | 50.8%581 W · 562 L | +11.8wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x742f…d673backed Under | 75c | 20$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5 | 421 | 44.4%187 W · 234 L | -28.0wins | -0.07per pick | 51cpaid | -17%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x8b47…5286backed Under | 53c | 19$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.93 | 178 | 45.5%81 W · 97 L | -6.9wins | -0.04per pick | 49cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NHL and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Penguins vs. Predators: O/U 6.5this page
- Penguins vs. PredatorsPredators won
- Spread: Penguins (-1.5)Predators won
- Spread: Predators (-1.5)Penguins won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.