Premier League · resolved market
Will Italy win?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x43934b73fc636d6707b7b8dacd1f31c0644ab9a9620d5198fa808bb9b88d9343
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Premier Leagueevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $29,084
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $31,395
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $29,084 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 38 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Premier League is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Premier League | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x96c4…bfdebacked No | 4c | 7,322$327 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6,995.09 | 27 | 7.4%2 W · 25 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 7cpaid | +9.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf572…545abacked Yes | 52c | 4,848$2,500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,500 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.1wins | -0.56per pick | 56cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4c03…0cc1backed No | 69c | 3,932$2,725 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,206.98 | 153 | 28.8%44 W · 109 L | -4.0wins | -0.03per pick | 31cpaid | +4.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcdd7…0b65backed Yes | 29c | 3,443$998 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$998.43 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -0.7wins | -0.12per pick | 29cpaid | -2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x09af…d337backed No | 71c | 3,363$2,391 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$971.75 | 33 | 57.6%19 W · 14 L | +1.6wins | +0.05per pick | 53cpaid | +22.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2de9…4b3fbacked No | 77c | 1,714$1,319 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$394.58 | 7 | 85.7%6 W · 1 L | +1.7wins | +0.24per pick | 62cpaid | +71.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4bb3…f603backed Yes | 43c | 1,527$650 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$650 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.8wins | -0.27per pick | 61cpaid | -57.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8b32…5950backed No | 73c | 439.44$321 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$118.65 | 319 | 44.5%142 W · 177 L | +11.7wins | +0.04per pick | 41cpaid | +13.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7941…c675backed Yes | 30c | 400$120 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$120 | 26 | 34.6%9 W · 17 L | -0.5wins | -0.02per pick | 37cpaid | -17.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe7be…c2ebbacked Yes | 27c | 370.37$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | +0.3wins | +0.03per pick | 41cpaid | -10.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4562…2521backed No | 5c | 327.37$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$311 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +1.0wins | +0.95per pick | 5cpaid | +1,900%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xaaf4…7883backed No | 72c | 303.07$218 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$84.86 | 49 | 42.9%21 W · 28 L | -2.1wins | -0.04per pick | 47cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x51b9…30dbbacked Yes | 48c | 239.98$116 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$115.59 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.14per pick | 64cpaid | -31%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6b55…02f8backed No | 58c | 234.89$137 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$98.05 | 136 | 52.2%71 W · 65 L | +10.0wins | +0.07per pick | 45cpaid | +9.9%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf3da…c114backed Yes | 47c | 209.92$99 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$98.76 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -1.1wins | -0.18per pick | 51cpaid | -52.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4273…19d8backed Yes | 15c | 209.85$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.38 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 26cpaid | -61.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd3c4…7776backed Yes | 28c | 203.07$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.86 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 23cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x86eb…b315backed Yes | 26c | 200$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.28per pick | 28cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8f69…7df1backed No | 71c | 184$130 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.61 | 39 | 48.7%19 W · 20 L | -1.3wins | -0.03per pick | 52cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf732…7c06backed Yes | 28c | 140$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.2 | 13 | 53.8%7 W · 6 L | -0.5wins | -0.04per pick | 58cpaid | -17.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8b9f…f7c3backed Yes | 32c | 112.44$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.88 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.7wins | -0.22per pick | 55cpaid | -49.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x28b4…3e5abacked Yes | 24c | 100$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 33cpaid | -27.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc200…7c74backed Yes | 33c | 100$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -1.2wins | -0.24per pick | 64cpaid | -45.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x415c…3c94backed Yes | 24c | 81.86$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.65 | 60 | 26.7%16 W · 44 L | +2.4wins | +0.04per pick | 23cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1399…38d9backed Yes | 27c | 74.07$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | +0.3wins | +0.04per pick | 39cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf70c…b195backed Yes | 29c | 70.94$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.51 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.9wins | -0.18per pick | 38cpaid | -74.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4bdf…fb6cbacked No | 73c | 68.48$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.49 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 59cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x88a2…c93dbacked Yes | 30c | 56.57$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.97 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.30per pick | 30cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6b10…b562backed Yes | 27c | 55.56$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 10 | 20%2 W · 8 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 20cpaid | +12.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd6fb…0c67backed Yes | 30c | 48.8$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.64 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -0.5wins | -0.07per pick | 36cpaid | -30.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0e10…ce29backed Yes | 33c | 48.48$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.4wins | -0.46per pick | 46cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf176…7911backed Yes | 28c | 42.14$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.8 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.28per pick | 28cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcbd8…15c9backed Yes | 31c | 40$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.2 | 17 | 17.6%3 W · 14 L | -2.7wins | -0.16per pick | 33cpaid | -44.9%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x747f…ade8backed Yes | 28c | 40$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.2 | 10 | 20%2 W · 8 L | -1.4wins | -0.14per pick | 34cpaid | -68.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe219…2fdfbacked Yes | 39c | 38.46$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.39per pick | 39cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb489…2632backed Yes | 32c | 31.25$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.1wins | +0.03per pick | 57cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8443…11a0backed No | 70c | 30$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | -0.6wins | -0.09per pick | 52cpaid | -26.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcdbf…1926backed No | 74c | 15$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.9 | 13 | 69.2%9 W · 4 L | +2.8wins | +0.22per pick | 47cpaid | +56.8%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Premier League and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Italy win?this page
- Will Spain win?Yes won
- Will the match be a draw? No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.