Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Qingdao be 29°C on August 20?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x439d63661ac124bbae2a69b20e4444a71575007a728c445110eac8d91fb70b06
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $10,676
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $12,495
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $10,676 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 53 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xd251…4d37backed Yes | 43c | 1,600$693 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$693.19 | 1,697 | 42.4%720 W · 977 L | +56.9wins | +0.03per pick | 39cpaid | +11.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x164c…3e39backed No | 79c | 511.6$406 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$105.77 | 1,034 | 51.3%530 W · 504 L | +69.5wins | +0.07per pick | 45cpaid | +14%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x3492…7f3bbacked Yes | 33c | 328.77$110 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$109.56 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.8wins | -0.42per pick | 42cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x52eb…67acbacked Yes | 18c | 301$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.18 | 4,988 | 49.8%2,485 W · 2,503 L | -155.4wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd498…a6c5backed Yes | 48c | 300$144 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$144 | 1,710 | 47.8%818 W · 892 L | -48.2wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa0ac…92ebbacked No | 56c | 267$150 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$117.48 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | +1.3wins | +0.15per pick | 41cpaid | +17.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed No | 56c | 262.49$147 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$115.76 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xffd0…cd07backed No | 56c | 238.07$133 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$104.75 | 2,311 | 57.7%1,334 W · 977 L | -19.0wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9418…e9f8backed Yes | 45c | 201.31$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$89.97 | 1,108 | 30%332 W · 776 L | -38.1wins | -0.03per pick | 33cpaid | -13.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7bbe…b95ebacked No | 66c | 181$119 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$61.54 | 419 | 66.6%279 W · 140 L | +36.9wins | +0.09per pick | 58cpaid | +13.5%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x7eeb…b6bdbacked Yes | 19c | 173.09$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.53 | 88 | 30.7%27 W · 61 L | +0.9wins | +0.01per pick | 30cpaid | +29.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7eb5…9400backed No | 48c | 171$82 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$88.63 | 527 | 58.8%310 W · 217 L | +13.2wins | +0.03per pick | 56cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9c90…17efbacked Yes | 41c | 154.78$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64.09 | 288 | 47.2%136 W · 152 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf3a7…2657backed Yes | 19c | 133.63$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.8 | 183 | 28.4%52 W · 131 L | -9.0wins | -0.05per pick | 33cpaid | -39.3%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x510f…a43cbacked Yes | 33c | 119.99$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.3 | 3,474 | 33.9%1,177 W · 2,297 L | -175.6wins | -0.05per pick | 39cpaid | -28.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf33c…488cbacked Yes | 44c | 113.64$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 102 | 44.1%45 W · 57 L | -1.0wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -6.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x14ad…69f5backed No | 56c | 105.26$59 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.31 | 267 | 44.2%118 W · 149 L | -4.8wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -2.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2e62…b22ebacked No | 63c | 104.25$66 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.29 | 749 | 26.7%200 W · 549 L | -20.6wins | -0.03per pick | 29cpaid | -32.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8242…6577backed Yes | 33c | 100$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33 | 12 | 33.3%4 W · 8 L | -2.0wins | -0.17per pick | 50cpaid | -53.1%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4476…c5fcbacked Yes | 52c | 100$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52 | 425 | 47.5%202 W · 223 L | -16.0wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -9.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x18ec…f311backed Yes | 49c | 97$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.47 | 40 | 42.5%17 W · 23 L | -2.4wins | -0.06per pick | 48cpaid | -19.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbfc1…ee2fbacked No | 67c | 94.65$63 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.23 | 91 | 39.6%36 W · 55 L | +12.2wins | +0.13per pick | 26cpaid | +85.2%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x655c…4420backed No | 56c | 89$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.16 | 895 | 57.2%512 W · 383 L | +7.7wins | +0.01per pick | 56cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb3df…463dbacked No | 55c | 81.05$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.1 | 94 | 56.4%53 W · 41 L | +7.7wins | +0.08per pick | 48cpaid | +16.8%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xf7aa…ddd6backed No | 62c | 68$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.72 | 1,274 | 50.9%649 W · 625 L | -35.9wins | -0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -10.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xeef1…21b8backed Yes | 38c | 63.95$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24 | 435 | 40.5%176 W · 259 L | +9.8wins | +0.02per pick | 38cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc662…0927backed No | 57c | 61.74$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.55 | 1,190 | 57.9%689 W · 501 L | -5.0wins | 0.00per pick | 58cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9006…9fb8backed Yes | 40c | 57.08$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.83 | 270 | 37.4%101 W · 169 L | +12.1wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | +7.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xaddf…b8febacked No | 62c | 53.74$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.42 | 286 | 66.8%191 W · 95 L | +9.1wins | +0.03per pick | 64cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x234c…90dbbacked Yes | 37c | 53.74$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 581 | 38.9%226 W · 355 L | +10.9wins | +0.02per pick | 37cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x496f…fa5dbacked No | 56c | 53.12$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.25 | 4,514 | 52.9%2,389 W · 2,125 L | +47.8wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1d69…7a63backed No | 57c | 50$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.5 | 1,075 | 54.8%589 W · 486 L | -17.0wins | -0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x74bf…8673backed No | 57c | 49$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.07 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.43per pick | 57cpaid | +75.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7956…eba5backed Yes | 39c | 46.59$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 1,048 | 38.1%399 W · 649 L | -3.8wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x052e…701abacked No | 68c | 46.09$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.75 | 16 | 62.5%10 W · 6 L | +2.6wins | +0.16per pick | 46cpaid | +70.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe88f…c4febacked No | 57c | 41.8$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.97 | 11 | 54.5%6 W · 5 L | -0.5wins | -0.05per pick | 59cpaid | -11.2%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4673…b24abacked No | 57c | 40.85$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.57 | 24 | 50%12 W · 12 L | -1.8wins | -0.08per pick | 58cpaid | -14.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9f20…12c3backed No | 52c | 40$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.2 | 4,104 | 56.6%2,322 W · 1,782 L | +50.5wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3e20…dddcbacked Yes | 36c | 37.05$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.49 | 285 | 46.3%132 W · 153 L | -17.3wins | -0.06per pick | 52cpaid | -11.8%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xbf13…b91abacked No | 61c | 35.64$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.9 | 264 | 42.4%112 W · 152 L | +12.8wins | +0.05per pick | 38cpaid | +16.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x81fe…80ecbacked No | 56c | 34.34$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.11 | 39 | 59%23 W · 16 L | -0.8wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5f61…840abacked Yes | 37c | 31.75$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.75 | 375 | 70.7%265 W · 110 L | +62.7wins | +0.17per pick | 54cpaid | +32.8%equal weight | 67+0.16 edge/pick |
| 0x5c38…f194backed No | 54c | 30$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.8 | 2,517 | 47.2%1,188 W · 1,329 L | +52.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x30fb…7db4backed Yes | 52c | 29.79$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.51 | 4,117 | 47.6%1,958 W · 2,159 L | -158.0wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe40a…e4a2backed No | 67c | 28.2$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.44 | 1,316 | 56.2%740 W · 576 L | -18.6wins | -0.01per pick | 58cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7df0…0dfebacked No | 58c | 27.63$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.69 | 3,642 | 65.9%2,400 W · 1,242 L | +33.6wins | +0.01per pick | 65cpaid | +1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe188…c1d0backed No | 56c | 25.62$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.32 | 78 | 56.4%44 W · 34 L | +7.9wins | +0.10per pick | 46cpaid | +22%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x0a0c…a853backed No | 64c | 22.05$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.94 | 2,249 | 34.2%769 W · 1,480 L | +11.6wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4a7a…11c2backed Yes | 53c | 20$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.6 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe0cd…d931backed Yes | 50c | 20$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 199 | 56.3%112 W · 87 L | -0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 57cpaid | 0%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3614…2397backed Yes | 53c | 20$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.6 | 32 | 62.5%20 W · 12 L | +0.8wins | +0.03per pick | 60cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdd1c…3f79backed No | 64c | 19.4$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.98 | 493 | 59%291 W · 202 L | +8.3wins | +0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4add…6fe5backed No | 68c | 18$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.78 | 1,452 | 36.8%534 W · 918 L | +12.3wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Qingdao be 29°C on August 20?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Qingdao be 28°C on August 20?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Qingdao be 30°C on August 20?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Qingdao be 31°C on August 20?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.