Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 108-109°F on August 23?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x43ed29be793e226133b9adbedb0eab53b661772f093cc84d9fc984d78f705f39
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $12,548
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $12,889
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $12,548 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a prediction-market account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 42 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet's whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x56b3…3fa2backed Yes | 17c | 3,056$510 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,545.65 | 929 | 44.3%412 W · 517 L | +31.7wins | +0.03per pick | 41cpaid | -6.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3653…ef74backed No | 72c | 263.94$191 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$191 | 2,286 | 57.3%1,309 W · 977 L | +69.9wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x24ed…8a18backed Yes | 9c | 261$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$237.51 | 191 | 32.5%62 W · 129 L | -1.8wins | -0.01per pick | 33cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa25e…2dd7backed Yes | 15c | 247.29$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$209.9 | 30 | 30%9 W · 21 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 30cpaid | -8.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc179…5cdebacked Yes | 36c | 223.1$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$143.5 | 323 | 45.8%148 W · 175 L | +16.6wins | +0.05per pick | 41cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf7aa…ddd6backed Yes | 16c | 219.02$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$183.14 | 1,697 | 52.5%891 W · 806 L | -42.5wins | -0.03per pick | 55cpaid | -9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x30fb…7db4backed Yes | 16c | 213.41$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$179.78 | 4,739 | 47.5%2,249 W · 2,490 L | -186.8wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -13%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2572…80dbbacked Yes | 55c | 184.99$102 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$83.24 | 191 | 48.7%93 W · 98 L | -5.6wins | -0.03per pick | 52cpaid | -12.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0380…073dbacked No | 79c | 176.47$140 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$140.08 | 4,467 | 65.1%2,907 W · 1,560 L | +14.9wins | 0.00per pick | 65cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8b8b…2512backed No | 78c | 169.55$133 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$133.08 | 2,254 | 56.9%1,283 W · 971 L | +69.5wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xaf17…5c20backed Yes | 16c | 155$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$130.2 | 1,866 | 25.4%474 W · 1,392 L | +134.7wins | +0.07per pick | 18cpaid | +53.5%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xa703…6a73backed Yes | 18c | 140.44$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$115.21 | 60 | 33.3%20 W · 40 L | -4.3wins | -0.07per pick | 40cpaid | -24.1%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc518…2594backed No | 62c | 127.66$79 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$79.14 | 2,176 | 53.1%1,156 W · 1,020 L | +36.0wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3f4a…a5a5backed Yes | 48c | 115.55$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60.3 | 36 | 94.4%34 W · 2 L | +14.4wins | +0.40per pick | 55cpaid | +80.7%equal weight | 76+0.24 edge/pick |
| 0xbbb7…a11abacked Yes | 15c | 109$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$92.65 | 1,488 | 57.3%853 W · 635 L | +46.0wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc1dc…48fabacked Yes | 29c | 102.19$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$72.53 | 147 | 42.2%62 W · 85 L | -10.3wins | -0.07per pick | 49cpaid | -17.3%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2165…f598backed No | 10c | 100$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 221 | 16.7%37 W · 184 L | -1.0wins | 0.00per pick | 17cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x79c9…b2f1backed Yes | 16c | 100$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$84 | 207 | 10.1%21 W · 186 L | -1.8wins | -0.01per pick | 11cpaid | +5.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 50c | 98.51$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.93 | 12,975 | 20.5%2,666 W · 10,309 L | -2,698.0wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -65.3%equal weight | 27-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x3990…06bebacked Yes | 17c | 98.25$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$81.36 | 370 | 27.8%103 W · 267 L | -0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 28cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x09c2…8210backed Yes | 22c | 94.26$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$73.57 | 576 | 54.3%313 W · 263 L | +16.5wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd1ed…d7cbbacked Yes | 21c | 91.31$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$71.91 | 921 | 45.6%420 W · 501 L | -29.2wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -22.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x73e7…8b59backed Yes | 13c | 89.99$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$78.14 | 466 | 40.3%188 W · 278 L | +30.4wins | +0.07per pick | 34cpaid | +11%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xbe99…9ca7backed Yes | 17c | 83.33$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$68.81 | 786 | 27.1%213 W · 573 L | -1.9wins | 0.00per pick | 27cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed Yes | 18c | 79.94$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$65.57 | 7,592 | 37.5%2,849 W · 4,743 L | +96.8wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +6.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2d60…d955backed No | 30c | 70$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21 | 132 | 24.2%32 W · 100 L | -7.7wins | -0.06per pick | 30cpaid | -23%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf16d…b7f9backed Yes | 18c | 65$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.3 | 482 | 26.6%128 W · 354 L | -5.0wins | -0.01per pick | 28cpaid | -26.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x379a…4b1abacked Yes | 18c | 61.72$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.54 | 582 | 47.8%278 W · 304 L | +10.4wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb530…3c03backed Yes | 20c | 57.75$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.34 | 79 | 13.9%11 W · 68 L | -7.4wins | -0.09per pick | 23cpaid | -42.3%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x1f85…7b02backed No | 55c | 56.88$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.42 | 2,233 | 56%1,250 W · 983 L | +47.6wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xeb68…e362backed No | 74c | 51.38$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.19 | 2,295 | 59.3%1,360 W · 935 L | +118.2wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8060…8873backed Yes | 25c | 40$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.4wins | +0.13per pick | 21cpaid | +33.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa0ae…4a1ebacked No | 79c | 35$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.8 | 138 | 52.2%72 W · 66 L | -0.8wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -11.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 39c | 32.3$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.66 | 12,545 | 46.9%5,879 W · 6,666 L | -39.4wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x562b…f9febacked No | 80c | 32$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.6 | 78 | 53.8%42 W · 36 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed Yes | 78c | 31.4$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.78 | 6,905 | 53.1%3,666 W · 3,239 L | +422.0wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x89e1…c6f3backed No | 77c | 25.97$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 15 | 73.3%11 W · 4 L | +0.7wins | +0.05per pick | 69cpaid | +8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3c11…33c9backed No | 71c | 25$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.75 | 927 | 61.7%572 W · 355 L | +17.4wins | +0.02per pick | 60cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x90f0…dc7abacked Yes | 60c | 25$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.1 | 24 | 33.3%8 W · 16 L | -1.1wins | -0.04per pick | 38cpaid | -18.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3079…7b77backed Yes | 60c | 23$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.2 | 42 | 40.5%17 W · 25 L | -6.2wins | -0.15per pick | 55cpaid | -27.1%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x945a…a48cbacked No | 59c | 21.67$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.73 | 942 | 2.4%23 W · 919 L | -388.2wins | -0.41per pick | 44cpaid | -90.4%equal weight | 5-0.40 edge/pick |
| 0x6046…3f9dbacked No | 76c | 19.73$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.99 | 467 | 36.8%172 W · 295 L | +1.5wins | 0.00per pick | 37cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 108-109°F on August 23?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 102-103°F on August 23?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 104-105°F on August 23?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 106-107°F on August 23?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 110-111°F on August 23?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80.
- The position was at least $10.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.