Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 106-107°F on August 23?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xf4ae2388ef2110941fee81417e5a1d71c0b83e559c60443b3356fd7518b6fa0e
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $17,420
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $18,460
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $17,420 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a prediction-market account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 96 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet's whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x56b3…3fa2backed Yes | 52c | 2,773$1,453 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,452.97 | 929 | 44.3%412 W · 517 L | +31.7wins | +0.03per pick | 41cpaid | -6.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9f6a…eb61backed Yes | 54c | 2,388$1,284 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,284.19 | 124 | 41.9%52 W · 72 L | -0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | +94.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5757…9e19backed No | 33c | 906.11$303 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$602.66 | 461 | 62.3%287 W · 174 L | +20.9wins | +0.05per pick | 58cpaid | +7.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x30fb…7db4backed No | 49c | 608.93$301 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$307.51 | 4,739 | 47.5%2,249 W · 2,490 L | -186.8wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -13%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc179…5cdebacked Yes | 53c | 581.31$311 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$310.59 | 323 | 45.8%148 W · 175 L | +16.6wins | +0.05per pick | 41cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd251…4d37backed No | 46c | 546.34$254 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$292.73 | 1,858 | 42.7%793 W · 1,065 L | +50.9wins | +0.03per pick | 40cpaid | +10.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf73f…ee53backed No | 47c | 527.39$247 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$280.06 | 3,064 | 33.5%1,027 W · 2,037 L | +13.2wins | 0.00per pick | 33cpaid | +4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbddc…5d4fbacked Yes | 55c | 320.18$175 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$175 | 706 | 45.8%323 W · 383 L | +16.4wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb0c8…fe7fbacked No | 36c | 309.68$113 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$196.68 | 4,442 | 53.7%2,387 W · 2,055 L | -17.6wins | 0.00per pick | 54cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9314…db74backed No | 49c | 277$136 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$141.23 | 305 | 26.9%82 W · 223 L | +6.8wins | +0.02per pick | 25cpaid | -21.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x69f0…fb27backed No | 22c | 255.94$56 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$200.32 | 2,283 | 58.3%1,331 W · 952 L | +85.1wins | +0.04per pick | 55cpaid | -2.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x09b4…e56dbacked No | 55c | 233$128 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$104.85 | 827 | 42.8%354 W · 473 L | +28.8wins | +0.03per pick | 39cpaid | +25.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe40a…e4a2backed No | 46c | 197.83$91 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$106.77 | 1,901 | 55.9%1,062 W · 839 L | -33.7wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x52eb…67acbacked No | 57c | 193$110 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$82.99 | 5,255 | 49.8%2,618 W · 2,637 L | -163.8wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xeec7…2fa1backed No | 51c | 192.1$98 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$94.26 | 68 | 64.7%44 W · 24 L | +2.6wins | +0.04per pick | 61cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1f85…7b02backed No | 21c | 166.14$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$131.5 | 2,233 | 56%1,250 W · 983 L | +47.6wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 47c | 158.31$74 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$84.18 | 12,545 | 46.9%5,879 W · 6,666 L | -39.4wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed No | 52c | 149.89$78 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$72.32 | 10,952 | 37.4%4,094 W · 6,858 L | +432.6wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | +16%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2d60…d955backed No | 28c | 140$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$101.5 | 132 | 24.2%32 W · 100 L | -7.7wins | -0.06per pick | 30cpaid | -23%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf16d…b7f9backed No | 49c | 139.16$68 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$70.69 | 482 | 26.6%128 W · 354 L | -5.0wins | -0.01per pick | 28cpaid | -26.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7eb5…9400backed No | 57c | 135.64$77 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58.57 | 577 | 57.7%333 W · 244 L | +10.5wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2572…80dbbacked Yes | 75c | 135$101 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$101.25 | 191 | 48.7%93 W · 98 L | -5.6wins | -0.03per pick | 52cpaid | -12.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0380…073dbacked No | 44c | 130.57$58 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$72.49 | 4,467 | 65.1%2,907 W · 1,560 L | +14.9wins | 0.00per pick | 65cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x122c…fbedbacked No | 47c | 129.24$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$68.85 | 1,067 | 50.7%541 W · 526 L | +29.2wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc518…2594backed No | 51c | 127.49$65 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$62.23 | 2,176 | 53.1%1,156 W · 1,020 L | +36.0wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7300…e52cbacked No | 48c | 104.8$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54.5 | 2,362 | 20.6%486 W · 1,876 L | -63.1wins | -0.03per pick | 23cpaid | -26.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbbb7…a11abacked No | 43c | 104.75$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$59.71 | 1,488 | 57.3%853 W · 635 L | +46.0wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf83e…4663backed No | 46c | 104.29$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55.91 | 358 | 64%229 W · 129 L | +3.9wins | +0.01per pick | 63cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb2e4…b7f1backed No | 37c | 100.82$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$63.96 | 2,223 | 56.1%1,247 W · 976 L | +54.7wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -5.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5c0a…a2c3backed No | 49c | 100$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51 | 1,335 | 50.9%680 W · 655 L | -35.8wins | -0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4435…786fbacked No | 48c | 100$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52 | 989 | 52.3%517 W · 472 L | -6.7wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2165…f598backed No | 10c | 100$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$90 | 221 | 16.7%37 W · 184 L | -1.0wins | 0.00per pick | 17cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe086…0450backed No | 50c | 99.36$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.68 | 1,274 | 52.5%669 W · 605 L | -17.0wins | -0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3653…ef74backed No | 44c | 98.96$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55.76 | 2,286 | 57.3%1,309 W · 977 L | +69.9wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x61dd…cbd8backed No | 50c | 97.84$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.92 | 62 | 61.3%38 W · 24 L | +1.2wins | +0.02per pick | 59cpaid | +3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed No | 17c | 97.7$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$81.11 | 7,233 | 9.3%675 W · 6,558 L | -1,116.1wins | -0.15per pick | 25cpaid | -75.8%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x9b12…c2d5backed No | 24c | 83.47$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$63.79 | 2,250 | 57%1,282 W · 968 L | +65.2wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3ec0…a64abacked Yes | 44c | 83.14$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.17 | 218 | 58.3%127 W · 91 L | +1.2wins | +0.01per pick | 58cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed Yes | 31c | 80.9$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.19 | 12,975 | 20.5%2,666 W · 10,309 L | -2,698.0wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -65.3%equal weight | 27-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0xd717…3b85backed No | 27c | 80.66$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$59.11 | 2,216 | 56.8%1,258 W · 958 L | +65.2wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4e72…ffb9backed No | 29c | 78.19$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55.45 | 2,274 | 56.7%1,289 W · 985 L | +65.5wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5028…a526backed Yes | 71c | 76.92$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.99 | 168 | 68.5%115 W · 53 L | +3.7wins | +0.02per pick | 66cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf73b…10bfbacked Yes | 43c | 76$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.96 | 446 | 44.6%199 W · 247 L | +9.7wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4708…9580backed No | 44c | 74.34$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.63 | 175 | 38.9%68 W · 107 L | -1.5wins | -0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -19.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed Yes | 47c | 73.43$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.3 | 6,166 | 49.3%3,038 W · 3,128 L | -117.7wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3d7a…11e8backed Yes | 54c | 72.22$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.12per pick | 62cpaid | -31%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf7aa…ddd6backed No | 53c | 71.85$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.61 | 1,697 | 52.5%891 W · 806 L | -42.5wins | -0.03per pick | 55cpaid | -9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x68a3…5dd5backed No | 51c | 70.43$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.61 | 473 | 44%208 W · 265 L | +8.7wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2e1f…8fdebacked No | 30c | 70$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49 | 1,177 | 34.9%411 W · 766 L | +29.9wins | +0.03per pick | 32cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x16c7…22cdbacked No | 35c | 69.69$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.63 | 2,226 | 59.1%1,316 W · 910 L | +110.0wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc6e2…06f4backed No | 57c | 65.23$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.05 | 242 | 48.8%118 W · 124 L | -8.7wins | -0.04per pick | 52cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x510f…a43cbacked No | 20c | 63.67$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.65 | 3,725 | 33.8%1,258 W · 2,467 L | -194.2wins | -0.05per pick | 39cpaid | -28.5%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa328…4977backed No | 46c | 62.22$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.6 | 886 | 60.7%538 W · 348 L | +9.4wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4248…60abbacked Yes | 47c | 61.32$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.05 | 2,340 | 58.7%1,373 W · 967 L | -4.1wins | 0.00per pick | 59cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xca75…0a64backed No | 52c | 60$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.8 | 1,158 | 57.1%661 W · 497 L | -45.6wins | -0.04per pick | 61cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xffd0…cd07backed No | 56c | 60$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.4 | 2,439 | 58%1,414 W · 1,025 L | -13.4wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x655c…4420backed No | 56c | 60$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.4 | 997 | 57.2%570 W · 427 L | +6.0wins | +0.01per pick | 57cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd1ed…d7cbbacked No | 36c | 58.9$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.84 | 921 | 45.6%420 W · 501 L | -29.2wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -22.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3c11…33c9backed No | 27c | 58.03$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.32 | 927 | 61.7%572 W · 355 L | +17.4wins | +0.02per pick | 60cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x637d…7df1backed Yes | 55c | 53.57$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.46 | 38 | 55.3%21 W · 17 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x496f…fa5dbacked No | 56c | 52.34$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.02 | 5,003 | 53.5%2,678 W · 2,325 L | +31.9wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdca4…e93dbacked Yes | 53c | 50.63$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.71 | 2,548 | 45.4%1,157 W · 1,391 L | +23.6wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaa28…090bbacked No | 28c | 50.25$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.1 | 2,280 | 14.7%336 W · 1,944 L | +51.5wins | +0.02per pick | 12cpaid | +21.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1d69…7a63backed No | 57c | 50$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.5 | 1,314 | 54%709 W · 605 L | -26.1wins | -0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x28ea…7367backed Yes | 49c | 48.36$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.87 | 2,201 | 62.2%1,370 W · 831 L | -0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa33d…3ef2backed Yes | 48c | 45.83$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22 | 533 | 73.7%393 W · 140 L | +36.8wins | +0.07per pick | 67cpaid | +15.6%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xa0ae…4a1ebacked No | 38c | 45$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.9 | 138 | 52.2%72 W · 66 L | -0.8wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -11.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8ddb…6a89backed Yes | 75c | 44.55$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.33 | 431 | 53.1%229 W · 202 L | +25.6wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | +11.2%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed No | 24c | 44.16$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.73 | 6,905 | 53.1%3,666 W · 3,239 L | +422.0wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x7861…3084backed Yes | 72c | 41.04$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.6 | 163 | 70.6%115 W · 48 L | +2.8wins | +0.02per pick | 69cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1201…005bbacked No | 31c | 40.89$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.17 | 192 | 9.9%19 W · 173 L | -3.8wins | -0.02per pick | 12cpaid | -35.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8b8b…2512backed No | 34c | 39.73$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.31 | 2,254 | 56.9%1,283 W · 971 L | +69.5wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x93f7…c133backed Yes | 62c | 39.67$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.45 | 216 | 56%121 W · 95 L | -2.2wins | -0.01per pick | 57cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x09c2…8210backed No | 33c | 38.36$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.73 | 576 | 54.3%313 W · 263 L | +16.5wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8593…82f5backed Yes | 48c | 36.86$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.69 | 105 | 32.4%34 W · 71 L | +2.6wins | +0.02per pick | 30cpaid | +12.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0a0c…a853backed Yes | 42c | 35.71$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.95 | 2,467 | 35.7%880 W · 1,587 L | +24.6wins | +0.01per pick | 35cpaid | +6.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8845…360ebacked No | 57c | 35.23$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.15 | 195 | 35.9%70 W · 125 L | -39.3wins | -0.20per pick | 56cpaid | -35.9%equal weight | 30-0.18 edge/pick |
| 0x6046…3f9dbacked Yes | 46c | 32.6$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 467 | 36.8%172 W · 295 L | +1.5wins | 0.00per pick | 37cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa397…7817backed Yes | 47c | 31.91$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 202 | 55.4%112 W · 90 L | +12.7wins | +0.06per pick | 49cpaid | +13.4%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xfa28…c37ebacked Yes | 49c | 31.82$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.52 | 4,032 | 35.6%1,436 W · 2,596 L | +42.8wins | +0.01per pick | 35cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x033e…76aebacked Yes | 54c | 31.18$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.94 | 47 | 66%31 W · 16 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 65cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc4c3…f0a1backed No | 50c | 30.81$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.49 | 25 | 12%3 W · 22 L | -4.8wins | -0.19per pick | 31cpaid | -73.2%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xddba…e638backed No | 46c | 30.53$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.63 | 504 | 62.3%314 W · 190 L | -3.1wins | -0.01per pick | 63cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb884…19c1backed Yes | 51c | 30.46$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.43 | 79 | 40.5%32 W · 47 L | -7.3wins | -0.09per pick | 50cpaid | -23.2%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x3e20…dddcbacked Yes | 51c | 25.55$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.03 | 439 | 47.6%209 W · 230 L | -16.8wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9f53…4834backed Yes | 64c | 25.25$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.15 | 14 | 42.9%6 W · 8 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -12.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf6f6…0e74backed No | 43c | 24.67$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.98 | 269 | 60.2%162 W · 107 L | +7.0wins | +0.03per pick | 58cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc1dc…48fabacked No | 67c | 24.53$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.03 | 147 | 42.2%62 W · 85 L | -10.3wins | -0.07per pick | 49cpaid | -17.3%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed No | 49c | 24.29$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.51 | 7,592 | 37.5%2,849 W · 4,743 L | +96.8wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +6.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9a85…70f5backed Yes | 53c | 23.04$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.18 | 15 | 53.3%8 W · 7 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +8.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xecd9…5565backed No | 52c | 22.08$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.5 | 189 | 52.4%99 W · 90 L | +2.8wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa9b7…f43cbacked No | 52c | 21.05$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.1 | 600 | 32%192 W · 408 L | -5.8wins | -0.01per pick | 33cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2b27…ff88backed No | 62c | 20$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.6 | 136 | 54.4%74 W · 62 L | -2.9wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -5.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfca6…6595backed Yes | 53c | 20$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.6 | 120 | 64.2%77 W · 43 L | +3.9wins | +0.03per pick | 61cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x272e…3a34backed Yes | 64c | 18.8$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 38 | 34.2%13 W · 25 L | -0.9wins | -0.02per pick | 37cpaid | -13.1%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3832…87f3backed Yes | 71c | 16.9$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -1.1wins | -0.38per pick | 71cpaid | -54.3%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 106-107°F on August 23?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 102-103°F on August 23?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 104-105°F on August 23?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 108-109°F on August 23?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 110-111°F on August 23?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80.
- The position was at least $10.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.