Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 104-105°F on August 23?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xc49bda4a0ab1c007474bdead35f109f7ba00536fd766afac5b2b9a602465498d
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $7,840
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $8,291
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $7,840 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a prediction-market account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 71 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet's whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xd251…4d37backed Yes | 26c | 1,876$479 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$479.18 | 1,858 | 42.7%793 W · 1,065 L | +50.9wins | +0.03per pick | 40cpaid | +10.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9314…db74backed Yes | 28c | 514.44$142 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$142.37 | 305 | 26.9%82 W · 223 L | +6.8wins | +0.02per pick | 25cpaid | -21.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd394…7e90backed Yes | 5c | 360$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.2 | 64 | 9.4%6 W · 58 L | +2.8wins | +0.04per pick | 5cpaid | +50%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbddc…5d4fbacked Yes | 22c | 324.04$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70 | 706 | 45.8%323 W · 383 L | +16.4wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x52eb…67acbacked No | 73c | 294.51$215 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$79.94 | 5,255 | 49.8%2,618 W · 2,637 L | -163.8wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x30fb…7db4backed No | 72c | 293.86$211 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$83.34 | 4,739 | 47.5%2,249 W · 2,490 L | -186.8wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -13%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbbb7…a11abacked No | 70c | 225$158 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$67.31 | 1,488 | 57.3%853 W · 635 L | +46.0wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc3e4…16f9backed Yes | 30c | 200.65$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.21 | 57 | 54.4%31 W · 26 L | +1.9wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +17.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x58b9…e12fbacked No | 73c | 200$146 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54 | 243 | 49.4%120 W · 123 L | -6.2wins | -0.03per pick | 52cpaid | -7.9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed Yes | 27c | 187.34$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.93 | 10,952 | 37.4%4,094 W · 6,858 L | +432.6wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | +16%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0380…073dbacked No | 77c | 168.48$130 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.75 | 4,467 | 65.1%2,907 W · 1,560 L | +14.9wins | 0.00per pick | 65cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6cd2…8eaabacked Yes | 32c | 150$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.78 | 163 | 25.8%42 W · 121 L | +2.0wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x28ea…7367backed No | 71c | 140.23$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.67 | 2,201 | 62.2%1,370 W · 831 L | -0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe40a…e4a2backed No | 74c | 129.23$96 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.48 | 1,901 | 55.9%1,062 W · 839 L | -33.7wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 67c | 128.99$87 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.44 | 12,545 | 46.9%5,879 W · 6,666 L | -39.4wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3ec0…a64abacked Yes | 22c | 115.66$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.79 | 218 | 58.3%127 W · 91 L | +1.2wins | +0.01per pick | 58cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe630…ef20backed No | 76c | 115.59$88 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.51 | 352 | 83.8%295 W · 57 L | +39.0wins | +0.11per pick | 73cpaid | +15.2%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xf16d…b7f9backed No | 69c | 112$77 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.92 | 482 | 26.6%128 W · 354 L | -5.0wins | -0.01per pick | 28cpaid | -26.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf7aa…ddd6backed No | 76c | 103.02$78 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.6 | 1,697 | 52.5%891 W · 806 L | -42.5wins | -0.03per pick | 55cpaid | -9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4476…c5fcbacked Yes | 29c | 100$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29 | 457 | 46.4%212 W · 245 L | -20.3wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe695…538ebacked Yes | 35c | 92.5$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.94 | 901 | 55.7%502 W · 399 L | +9.2wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x38e2…2909backed No | 69c | 85.93$59 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.93 | 3,649 | 53.2%1,943 W · 1,706 L | +83.6wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3653…ef74backed No | 64c | 84.25$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.75 | 2,286 | 57.3%1,309 W · 977 L | +69.9wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf83e…4663backed No | 73c | 83.81$61 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.63 | 358 | 64%229 W · 129 L | +3.9wins | +0.01per pick | 63cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdfbd…5a6cbacked Yes | 18c | 79.7$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.39 | 678 | 38.6%262 W · 416 L | +12.7wins | +0.02per pick | 37cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3f30…f8debacked Yes | 30c | 79.27$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.57 | 4,009 | 47.3%1,897 W · 2,112 L | +71.3wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | +4.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4374…3d05backed No | 74c | 70$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18 | 386 | 52.8%204 W · 182 L | -25.5wins | -0.07per pick | 59cpaid | -13.6%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed No | 70c | 69.44$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.83 | 6,166 | 49.3%3,038 W · 3,128 L | -117.7wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa328…4977backed No | 69c | 62.22$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.29 | 886 | 60.7%538 W · 348 L | +9.4wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5203…b975backed Yes | 30c | 60$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 219 | 40.6%89 W · 130 L | -0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 41cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb0c8…fe7fbacked No | 73c | 59.66$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.92 | 4,442 | 53.7%2,387 W · 2,055 L | -17.6wins | 0.00per pick | 54cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd1ed…d7cbbacked Yes | 20c | 57.78$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.68 | 921 | 45.6%420 W · 501 L | -29.2wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -22.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4343…8deabacked Yes | 27c | 57.14$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.3 | 85 | 61.2%52 W · 33 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3b8c…e802backed Yes | 27c | 55.67$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 193 | 36.3%70 W · 123 L | +0.9wins | 0.00per pick | 36cpaid | +14.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x496f…fa5dbacked No | 75c | 54.81$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.93 | 5,003 | 53.5%2,678 W · 2,325 L | +31.9wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc518…2594backed No | 66c | 53.4$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.42 | 2,176 | 53.1%1,156 W · 1,020 L | +36.0wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x41e6…66b7backed No | 76c | 51.29$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.07 | 571 | 58.1%332 W · 239 L | -28.3wins | -0.05per pick | 63cpaid | -10.5%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3636…34c4backed No | 70c | 50$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15 | 323 | 82%265 W · 58 L | +32.7wins | +0.10per pick | 72cpaid | +15.2%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x61d4…05a3backed Yes | 24c | 50$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 30cpaid | -46.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa703…6a73backed No | 77c | 48.84$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.23 | 60 | 33.3%20 W · 40 L | -4.3wins | -0.07per pick | 40cpaid | -24.1%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1f85…7b02backed No | 68c | 45.82$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.58 | 2,233 | 56%1,250 W · 983 L | +47.6wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x13de…fd91backed No | 71c | 45$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.05 | 802 | 47.3%379 W · 423 L | -29.0wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -12.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x655c…4420backed No | 72c | 43$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.23 | 997 | 57.2%570 W · 427 L | +6.0wins | +0.01per pick | 57cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd73e…4b96backed Yes | 28c | 38.75$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.85 | 44 | 47.7%21 W · 23 L | +8.2wins | +0.19per pick | 29cpaid | +59.7%equal weight | 63+0.12 edge/pick |
| 0xc85b…ba1bbacked No | 76c | 38$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.08 | 227 | 71.8%163 W · 64 L | +6.7wins | +0.03per pick | 69cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe828…ae41backed Yes | 28c | 37.06$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.36 | 168 | 32.1%54 W · 114 L | -9.5wins | -0.06per pick | 38cpaid | -16.5%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9b12…c2d5backed No | 70c | 36.91$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.94 | 2,250 | 57%1,282 W · 968 L | +65.2wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf06d…7dafbacked No | 74c | 35.91$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.41 | 85 | 76.5%65 W · 20 L | +2.8wins | +0.03per pick | 73cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1d69…7a63backed No | 78c | 33.43$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.35 | 1,314 | 54%709 W · 605 L | -26.1wins | -0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf5bd…eaa7backed Yes | 31c | 32.69$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.05 | 42 | 40.5%17 W · 25 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 39cpaid | +9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1abc…45e7backed No | 76c | 31.33$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.62 | 2,254 | 58.2%1,311 W · 943 L | +84.7wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfd8e…aea4backed No | 77c | 30.89$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.08 | 2,434 | 79.4%1,933 W · 501 L | +99.7wins | +0.04per pick | 75cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xddba…e638backed No | 73c | 30.53$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.24 | 504 | 62.3%314 W · 190 L | -3.1wins | -0.01per pick | 63cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1ad0…7733backed No | 72c | 27.77$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.78 | 11 | 81.8%9 W · 2 L | +0.7wins | +0.06per pick | 76cpaid | +8.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa0ae…4a1ebacked No | 75c | 25$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.25 | 138 | 52.2%72 W · 66 L | -0.8wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -11.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2bfd…c4cdbacked No | 69c | 24.78$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.68 | 31 | 71%22 W · 9 L | +2.5wins | +0.08per pick | 63cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 72c | 24$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.72 | 9,962 | 45.9%4,572 W · 5,390 L | -309.4wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xffd0…cd07backed No | 74c | 22$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.72 | 2,439 | 58%1,414 W · 1,025 L | -13.4wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0a0c…a853backed No | 69c | 21.12$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.55 | 2,467 | 35.7%880 W · 1,587 L | +24.6wins | +0.01per pick | 35cpaid | +6.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4f1d…8de2backed No | 70c | 20.48$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.08 | 1,632 | 60.7%990 W · 642 L | -18.9wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 72c | 20.28$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.77 | 12,975 | 20.5%2,666 W · 10,309 L | -2,698.0wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -65.3%equal weight | 27-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0xfd55…f905backed No | 75c | 20$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.91 | 4,627 | 58.3%2,696 W · 1,931 L | -114.2wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xca75…0a64backed No | 75c | 20$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5 | 1,158 | 57.1%661 W · 497 L | -45.6wins | -0.04per pick | 61cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa008…a38abacked No | 71c | 20$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.8 | 36 | 69.4%25 W · 11 L | +3.4wins | +0.10per pick | 60cpaid | +11.8%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xecc8…9335backed No | 69c | 20$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.2 | 213 | 63.4%135 W · 78 L | +10.4wins | +0.05per pick | 58cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x813f…26ecbacked No | 72c | 20$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.6 | 941 | 62.3%586 W · 355 L | -24.3wins | -0.03per pick | 65cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf73b…10bfbacked No | 73c | 18.88$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.1 | 446 | 44.6%199 W · 247 L | +9.7wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd717…3b85backed No | 66c | 18.23$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.14 | 2,216 | 56.8%1,258 W · 958 L | +65.2wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x16c7…22cdbacked No | 70c | 16.22$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.87 | 2,226 | 59.1%1,316 W · 910 L | +110.0wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x005e…6d8ebacked No | 76c | 16.18$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.88 | 2,201 | 56.8%1,250 W · 951 L | +69.4wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1359…7e7bbacked No | 80c | 12.5$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2.5 | 128 | 75.8%97 W · 31 L | +0.7wins | +0.01per pick | 75cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 104-105°F on August 23?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 102-103°F on August 23?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 106-107°F on August 23?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 108-109°F on August 23?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 110-111°F on August 23?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80.
- The position was at least $10.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.