South American Leagues · resolved market
Will CF Cruz Azul win on 2025-12-06?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x44064fcfc6802c6fd08ff79825b215a21b3feb1254ed893523b84a395f80cd24
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- South American Leaguesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $19,677
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $21,104
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $19,677 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 25 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in South American Leagues is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in South American Leagues | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xe60a…6a47backed Yes | 25c | 6,022$1,492 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,492.42 | 234 | 35%82 W · 152 L | -2.7wins | -0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2652…2a1dbacked No | 76c | 1,658$1,258 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$400.84 | 1,091 | 55.6%607 W · 484 L | -19.8wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -10.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x84f7…ade1backed Yes | 11c | 1,420$149 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$149.29 | 187 | 42.2%79 W · 108 L | +1.7wins | +0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -13.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd1ed…d7cbbacked Yes | 10c | 1,316$135 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$134.82 | 181 | 29.8%54 W · 127 L | +0.9wins | +0.01per pick | 29cpaid | -35.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd035…f165backed Yes | 23c | 676$155 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$155.48 | 92 | 29.3%27 W · 65 L | +2.3wins | +0.03per pick | 27cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7bbd…1bf5backed Yes | 10c | 630.02$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | 0.0wins | +0.01per pick | 24cpaid | -66.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb893…bf4bbacked Yes | 23c | 413.87$95 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$95.19 | 102 | 42.2%43 W · 59 L | +2.3wins | +0.02per pick | 40cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x908a…ad16backed Yes | 24c | 354$85 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$84.96 | 636 | 44.7%284 W · 352 L | -2.0wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | -12.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd094…271bbacked Yes | 26c | 353.54$92 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$91.92 | 132 | 28%37 W · 95 L | +2.3wins | +0.02per pick | 26cpaid | +4.9%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x29c0…efaabacked No | 77c | 336.21$257 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$78.74 | 816 | 51.6%421 W · 395 L | +12.0wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4133…5e70backed Yes | 12c | 260.04$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.82 | 1,985 | 44.8%890 W · 1,095 L | -44.4wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -12.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0d0a…0809backed Yes | 23c | 217.52$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.03 | 51 | 29.4%15 W · 36 L | -3.4wins | -0.07per pick | 36cpaid | -22.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9dd9…08bdbacked Yes | 16c | 160$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.85 | 329 | 36.5%120 W · 209 L | -10.0wins | -0.03per pick | 40cpaid | -22.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd1a8…1b66backed No | 76c | 150$114 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36 | 17 | 70.6%12 W · 5 L | +2.1wins | +0.12per pick | 58cpaid | +24.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1d94…9100backed Yes | 24c | 111$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.64 | 817 | 40.8%333 W · 484 L | +20.2wins | +0.02per pick | 38cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x03de…4bfdbacked No | 75c | 100$75 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25 | 43 | 62.8%27 W · 16 L | +1.1wins | +0.03per pick | 60cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbd87…01a9backed Yes | 26c | 100$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | -1.0wins | -0.11per pick | 45cpaid | -40.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9731…9b35backed Yes | 24c | 96.2$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.09 | 266 | 59.8%159 W · 107 L | +12.0wins | +0.04per pick | 55cpaid | +11.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x58c8…0300backed No | 76c | 58.17$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.75 | 120 | 45.8%55 W · 65 L | -2.0wins | -0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -16.4%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x344e…121bbacked Yes | 26c | 50$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 7 | 0%0 W · 7 L | -1.7wins | -0.25per pick | 25cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1db3…ada1backed Yes | 24c | 45$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.8 | 18 | 44.4%8 W · 10 L | -2.4wins | -0.13per pick | 58cpaid | -25.5%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x426a…128bbacked No | 80c | 42.9$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.78 | 24 | 45.8%11 W · 13 L | -2.2wins | -0.09per pick | 55cpaid | -26%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfcad…0a68backed No | 79c | 40.07$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.52 | 13 | 53.8%7 W · 6 L | -1.6wins | -0.12per pick | 66cpaid | -21.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7d84…f2e3backed No | 80c | 20.54$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.11 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.8wins | +0.19per pick | 56cpaid | +57.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x587b…2622backed No | 79c | 14$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2.94 | 200 | 65%130 W · 70 L | +18.0wins | +0.09per pick | 56cpaid | +20.4%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in South American Leagues and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will CF Cruz Azul win on 2025-12-06?this page
- Will Tigres de la UANL vs. CF Cruz Azul end in a draw?Yes won
- Will Tigres de la UANL win on 2025-12-06?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.