Commodities · resolved market
WTI Crude Oil (WTI) closes above $88 on May 29?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x4461c301a6b708a2dd5e1a5f4333d567ecd6fb2f53a21f8434df1a26b36dec53
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Commoditiesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $13,837
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $13,232
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $13,837 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 30 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Commodities is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Commodities | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xc8ab…6418backed Yes | 45c | 2,000$895 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$895 | 938 | 40.2%377 W · 561 L | -69.0wins | -0.07per pick | 48cpaid | -31.8%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x3764…c5ebbacked No | 60c | 1,143$687 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$455.52 | 294 | 36.1%106 W · 188 L | +16.1wins | +0.05per pick | 31cpaid | +24.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x41f3…844ebacked Yes | 30c | 1,040$309 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$309.21 | 307 | 38.8%119 W · 188 L | +20.1wins | +0.07per pick | 32cpaid | +14.7%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5f5e…b5ecbacked Yes | 40c | 900$360 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$360 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | -1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa540…0b43backed Yes | 46c | 334.96$154 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$153.85 | 1,277 | 24.3%310 W · 967 L | -58.2wins | -0.05per pick | 29cpaid | -44.8%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1606…de00backed Yes | 48c | 219$105 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$105.12 | 8 | 12.5%1 W · 7 L | -1.6wins | -0.20per pick | 32cpaid | -72.8%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes | 29c | 212$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61.67 | 1,048 | 34.5%362 W · 686 L | -94.9wins | -0.09per pick | 44cpaid | -29.4%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xd51d…1578backed Yes | 56c | 200$112 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$112 | 35 | 48.6%17 W · 18 L | +1.1wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7e80…631bbacked Yes | 45c | 189.98$85 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$85.47 | 390 | 34.4%134 W · 256 L | -33.8wins | -0.09per pick | 43cpaid | -30.5%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xb41c…5bd3backed No | 60c | 177.39$106 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$71.47 | 73 | 56.2%41 W · 32 L | +7.6wins | +0.10per pick | 46cpaid | +8.8%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x1018…7264backed No | 57c | 157.46$90 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$67.31 | 305 | 34.8%106 W · 199 L | +1.9wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | -14.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x204b…8ca3backed Yes | 34c | 130.6$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.88 | 365 | 50.4%184 W · 181 L | +15.5wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0bc8…adf7backed No | 50c | 119.97$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$59.85 | 84 | 59.5%50 W · 34 L | +4.6wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +17.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x14dd…3f7dbacked Yes | 50c | 103$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.5 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.50per pick | 50cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x68df…3a20backed Yes | 50c | 102$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.50per pick | 50cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa7f8…c1f7backed Yes | 50c | 102$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.50per pick | 50cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x66b2…5f75backed Yes | 50c | 101$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.5 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.50per pick | 50cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x907c…23c1backed No | 52c | 100$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48 | 78 | 38.5%30 W · 48 L | -8.0wins | -0.10per pick | 49cpaid | -28.6%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x1bf7…ea54backed Yes | 37c | 100$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37 | 26 | 46.2%12 W · 14 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | +17.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x759d…cc80backed No | 63c | 100$63 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.3wins | +0.06per pick | 54cpaid | +24.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x264c…bacabacked Yes | 50c | 98$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49 | 51 | 49%25 W · 26 L | +2.3wins | +0.05per pick | 44cpaid | -18.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x229f…08b1backed No | 75c | 88.81$67 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.2 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 75cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9cb3…1367backed Yes | 51c | 59.99$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.4 | 123 | 48.8%60 W · 63 L | +8.5wins | +0.07per pick | 42cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x06ce…0b8bbacked Yes | 46c | 50$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23 | 88 | 44.3%39 W · 49 L | +0.6wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x99b5…0b19backed No | 56c | 50$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.76 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +0.8wins | +0.11per pick | 46cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x879e…e339backed No | 71c | 50$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.33 | 11 | 81.8%9 W · 2 L | +2.1wins | +0.19per pick | 62cpaid | +39.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x7efd…caedbacked No | 74c | 50$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | -0.9wins | -0.12per pick | 37cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6289…cd99backed No | 37c | 30$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.9 | 42 | 40.5%17 W · 25 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -20.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc17a…50e9backed Yes | 66c | 25$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.5 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.66per pick | 66cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xca1f…d282backed No | 79c | 20$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.2 | 78 | 57.7%45 W · 33 L | -2.2wins | -0.03per pick | 60cpaid | -12.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Commodities and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- WTI Crude Oil (WTI) closes above $88 on May 29?this page
- WTI Crude Oil (WTI) closes above $86 on May 29?Yes won
- WTI Crude Oil (WTI) closes above $87 on May 29?Yes won
- WTI Crude Oil (WTI) closes above $89 on May 29?No won
- WTI Crude Oil (WTI) closes above $90 on May 29?No won
- WTI Crude Oil (WTI) closes above $91 on May 29?No won
- WTI Crude Oil (WTI) closes above $93 on May 29?No won
- WTI Crude Oil (WTI) closes above $94 on May 29?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.