NHL · resolved market
Spread: Flames (-1.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x4465d19d83e2b1564945540a34c7c98595250408b847607ac3aa8f16b6f8ae22
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Flamesof Flames, Kraken
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NHLevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $7,492
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $7,380
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $7,492 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 25 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NHL is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NHL | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x5ad5…37b9backed Kraken | 4c | 2,721$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99.77 | 72 | 30.6%22 W · 50 L | +14.5wins | +0.20per pick | 10cpaid | +218.9%equal weight | 67+0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x5520…32ffbacked Kraken | 2c | 2,000$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 13 | 0%0 W · 13 L | -0.3wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7808…3046backed Kraken | 3c | 765.33$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.96 | 17 | 35.3%6 W · 11 L | -0.4wins | -0.02per pick | 37cpaid | -28.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2639…a9b6backed Kraken | 3c | 645.33$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.36 | 174 | 42.5%74 W · 100 L | +2.6wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -12.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x83a3…6292backed Kraken | 63c | 166.67$105 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$105 | 811 | 57.2%464 W · 347 L | -5.8wins | -0.01per pick | 58cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf41a…ea2bbacked Flames | 37c | 164.37$61 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$103.55 | 919 | 45.6%419 W · 500 L | -27.3wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked Kraken | 62c | 161.41$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99.85 | 2,664 | 51.6%1,375 W · 1,289 L | +58.0wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe60a…6a47backed Kraken | 63c | 105$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66.15 | 1,948 | 49.4%962 W · 986 L | +24.9wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1ae7…cf61backed Kraken | 64c | 100$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64 | 130 | 60%78 W · 52 L | +1.4wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe6f0…5701backed Flames | 27c | 100$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$73 | 210 | 40.5%85 W · 125 L | -5.5wins | -0.03per pick | 43cpaid | -11.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xebc0…fa41backed Kraken | 73c | 97.99$72 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$71.53 | 170 | 57.6%98 W · 72 L | +15.0wins | +0.09per pick | 49cpaid | +25.4%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x5179…2b29backed Flames | 37c | 90$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.7 | 481 | 49.3%237 W · 244 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa9d3…9d4bbacked Flames | 36c | 87.35$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55.9 | 792 | 51.1%405 W · 387 L | +21.7wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdca6…9a97backed Flames | 39c | 71.69$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.41 | 18 | 72.2%13 W · 5 L | +4.2wins | +0.23per pick | 49cpaid | +57.3%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x1600…5a08backed Flames | 39c | 50$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.5 | 127 | 35.4%45 W · 82 L | -9.0wins | -0.07per pick | 43cpaid | -17.4%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x4274…1d2dbacked Flames | 40c | 45$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27 | 12 | 83.3%10 W · 2 L | +3.8wins | +0.32per pick | 52cpaid | +72.8%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x1787…c311backed Kraken | 63c | 42.86$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27 | 696 | 53.4%372 W · 324 L | -16.8wins | -0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x973e…22ebbacked Kraken | 64c | 32.81$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21 | 690 | 61.6%425 W · 265 L | +15.7wins | +0.02per pick | 59cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3f1f…f56bbacked Flames | 37c | 30$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.9 | 204 | 47.5%97 W · 107 L | -4.5wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2692…2698backed Flames | 37c | 30$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.9 | 200 | 45.5%91 W · 109 L | -7.8wins | -0.04per pick | 49cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdbdd…a5debacked Kraken | 61c | 26.2$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.98 | 1,846 | 57.2%1,055 W · 791 L | +85.0wins | +0.05per pick | 53cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8861…e19fbacked Kraken | 63c | 23.81$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 177 | 53.1%94 W · 83 L | +6.7wins | +0.04per pick | 49cpaid | +11.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6e6c…9a1dbacked Kraken | 63c | 23.81$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 73 | 53.4%39 W · 34 L | -2.6wins | -0.04per pick | 57cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1d94…9100backed Kraken | 63c | 20$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.6 | 1,530 | 51.7%791 W · 739 L | +22.5wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf0d7…e241backed Kraken | 62c | 20$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.4 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.62per pick | 62cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NHL and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: Flames (-1.5)this page
- Kraken vs. FlamesFlames won
- Kraken vs. Flames: O/U 5.5Over won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.