NHL · resolved market
Kraken vs. Flames: O/U 5.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x2ac3d7d9706dc9082116909e8386caafb6194efe031b38c1f8fa2dfc1a2c5bbd
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NHLevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $91,820
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $92,097
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $91,820 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 73 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NHL is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NHL | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x6a72…33eebacked Under | 49c | 74,054$36,626 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36,625.88 | 1,345 | 54.8%737 W · 608 L | +21.0wins | +0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9165…5b98backed Over | 51c | 33,788$17,232 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16,555.92 | 119 | 55.5%66 W · 53 L | +3.6wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x16b2…a881backed Over | 50c | 21,572$10,786 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10,786 | 881 | 51.2%451 W · 430 L | +10.4wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd696…8a49backed Over | 51c | 7,877$4,000 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,876.98 | 514 | 52.3%269 W · 245 L | +17.1wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +7.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf68a…5b1bbacked Over | 50c | 6,511$3,255 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,255.42 | 1,441 | 49.2%709 W · 732 L | +6.5wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x35ac…92a7backed Under | 48c | 6,000$2,880 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,879.99 | 275 | 48.7%134 W · 141 L | +0.9wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xec13…862bbacked Over | 52c | 5,111$2,635 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,475.5 | 225 | 46.2%104 W · 121 L | -3.3wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x90f6…48f3backed Over | 52c | 4,573$2,378 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,195.08 | 31 | 58.1%18 W · 13 L | +1.9wins | +0.06per pick | 52cpaid | +14.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x42b5…b5b6backed Under | 48c | 3,055$1,466 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,466.42 | 1,377 | 49.1%676 W · 701 L | +39.2wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8717…49a8backed Over | 51c | 2,368$1,197 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,170.86 | 301 | 52.5%158 W · 143 L | +17.8wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | +12.6%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8511…4a6bbacked Over | 51c | 2,040$1,040 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$999.6 | 201 | 47.8%96 W · 105 L | -5.5wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xabf5…cfebbacked Under | 49c | 2,000$980 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$980 | 270 | 48.1%130 W · 140 L | -8.8wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf1ef…8cd6backed Under | 49c | 2,000$980 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$980 | 88 | 45.5%40 W · 48 L | -6.3wins | -0.07per pick | 53cpaid | -15.1%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xba26…23c9backed Under | 49c | 1,290$634 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$634.11 | 1,143 | 50.8%581 W · 562 L | +11.8wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdbb9…ed8dbacked Over | 49c | 687.78$337 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$350.77 | 1,230 | 53.7%661 W · 569 L | -9.1wins | -0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8013…5b52backed Over | 52c | 664$345 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$318.72 | 43 | 51.2%22 W · 21 L | +1.5wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | +1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4c03…f8bebacked Over | 51c | 608.16$308 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$300 | 139 | 52.5%73 W · 66 L | +1.3wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf5f2…0234backed Over | 50c | 576$288 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$288 | 105 | 54.3%57 W · 48 L | +8.7wins | +0.08per pick | 46cpaid | +15.7%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x273c…7a42backed Under | 49c | 404.66$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200.08 | 181 | 59.7%108 W · 73 L | +8.3wins | +0.05per pick | 55cpaid | +7.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x84d9…76dbbacked Over | 52c | 384.62$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$184.62 | 485 | 52.2%253 W · 232 L | +8.1wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf102…1348backed Over | 50c | 320$160 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$160 | 780 | 38.5%300 W · 480 L | +23.5wins | +0.03per pick | 35cpaid | +9.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd4da…3175backed Over | 50c | 301.1$151 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$150.55 | 282 | 51.8%146 W · 136 L | +8.9wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +4.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc8ab…4f9cbacked Over | 51c | 294.12$150 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$144.12 | 160 | 56.3%90 W · 70 L | +11.6wins | +0.07per pick | 49cpaid | +15.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x0bd3…c066backed Over | 52c | 290.64$151 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$139.64 | 84 | 58.3%49 W · 35 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 58cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5a09…3c83backed Over | 50c | 280$140 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$140 | 12 | 58.3%7 W · 5 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 60cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5b20…99e9backed Over | 51c | 274.51$140 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$134.51 | 1,093 | 51.8%566 W · 527 L | +14.2wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6b3a…2841backed Over | 50c | 260$130 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$130 | 764 | 50.4%385 W · 379 L | +7.8wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb9fc…da76backed Under | 50c | 250$125 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$125 | 237 | 51.5%122 W · 115 L | +2.1wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe1fc…bcdfbacked Over | 51c | 200.98$102 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$98.48 | 30 | 50%15 W · 15 L | -1.2wins | -0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9852…111abacked Under | 50c | 200$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 88 | 45.5%40 W · 48 L | -8.5wins | -0.10per pick | 55cpaid | -18.3%equal weight | 42-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x2687…1363backed Over | 50c | 200$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$100 | 28 | 39.3%11 W · 17 L | -1.5wins | -0.05per pick | 45cpaid | -14.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3fbc…9cf6backed Over | 50c | 200$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$100 | 304 | 47.4%144 W · 160 L | -6.6wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe529…245dbacked Under | 51c | 196.08$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 11 | 63.6%7 W · 4 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 65cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd1a8…1b66backed Over | 50c | 196.07$98 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$98.04 | 122 | 50%61 W · 61 L | -1.1wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7c0f…09debacked Under | 51c | 192.31$98 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$98.08 | 79 | 43%34 W · 45 L | -1.8wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0dfa…bdddbacked Under | 50c | 160.22$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$79.74 | 69 | 37.7%26 W · 43 L | -7.2wins | -0.10per pick | 48cpaid | -24.9%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x2652…2a1dbacked Under | 48c | 150.62$72 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$72.15 | 1,679 | 54.4%914 W · 765 L | +36.6wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf6f1…b386backed Over | 50c | 150$75 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$75 | 63 | 47.6%30 W · 33 L | +1.1wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd4ed…1795backed Over | 50c | 124$62 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$62 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | 0%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd995…9bcbbacked Over | 50c | 120$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60 | 43 | 34.9%15 W · 28 L | -6.3wins | -0.15per pick | 50cpaid | -29.3%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x46e5…4c5ebacked Over | 52c | 112$58 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.76 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5b89…23fbbacked Over | 50c | 100$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.6wins | +0.19per pick | 48cpaid | +34.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x591a…aec2backed Under | 50c | 100$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 136 | 44.9%61 W · 75 L | -6.5wins | -0.05per pick | 50cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf0fd…5903backed Under | 51c | 78.43$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 89 | 49.4%44 W · 45 L | -3.1wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd53e…e70cbacked Under | 51c | 76.32$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.64 | 62 | 46.8%29 W · 33 L | -5.2wins | -0.08per pick | 55cpaid | -16.8%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x84ec…daabbacked Over | 50c | 74.66$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.96 | 38 | 42.1%16 W · 22 L | -1.3wins | -0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -14.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf13b…9ef9backed Under | 51c | 71.94$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.59 | 490 | 53.7%263 W · 227 L | -1.2wins | 0.00per pick | 54cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5f9f…c934backed Under | 50c | 60.25$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 214 | 54.2%116 W · 98 L | +7.3wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +9.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4132…04b2backed Under | 49c | 57.99$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.42 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.1wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | +10%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9014…db4abacked Over | 50c | 54$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27 | 160 | 48.1%77 W · 83 L | -6.1wins | -0.04per pick | 52cpaid | -5.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x90f9…e894backed Over | 50c | 54$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27 | 156 | 47.4%74 W · 82 L | -7.2wins | -0.05per pick | 52cpaid | -6.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x37e2…a498backed Under | 50c | 54$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.50per pick | 50cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6a12…ba9cbacked Under | 51c | 52.53$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.79 | 116 | 38.8%45 W · 71 L | -2.1wins | -0.02per pick | 41cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x34fa…f491backed Over | 51c | 50$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.5 | 599 | 50.4%302 W · 297 L | +20.0wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0c2d…2570backed Over | 50c | 50$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25 | 175 | 52%91 W · 84 L | +0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x45c3…42f9backed Under | 50c | 50$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 136 | 50%68 W · 68 L | +4.0wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | +6.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1455…e5cdbacked Over | 51c | 45$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.05 | 793 | 50.1%397 W · 396 L | -11.5wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb0f6…a31cbacked Under | 50c | 45$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.65 | 109 | 55%60 W · 49 L | +3.3wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | +7.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5abb…061bbacked Over | 51c | 43$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.16 | 181 | 48.6%88 W · 93 L | +0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x50c1…6c6cbacked Under | 50c | 40$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 137 | 43.1%59 W · 78 L | -7.8wins | -0.06per pick | 49cpaid | -13.3%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xda7a…d321backed Under | 50c | 40$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 255 | 50.2%128 W · 127 L | +0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xedb5…ce8ebacked Over | 53c | 37.74$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.74 | 132 | 46.2%61 W · 71 L | -8.3wins | -0.06per pick | 53cpaid | -11.9%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc95f…357fbacked Over | 51c | 31.37$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.37 | 42 | 54.8%23 W · 19 L | +2.8wins | +0.07per pick | 48cpaid | +12.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb590…15d3backed Over | 51c | 30$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.7 | 481 | 61.3%295 W · 186 L | +21.3wins | +0.04per pick | 57cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4274…1d2dbacked Under | 51c | 29.41$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 12 | 83.3%10 W · 2 L | +3.8wins | +0.32per pick | 52cpaid | +72.8%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x4e2c…6aaebacked Over | 50c | 28.77$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.39 | 26 | 46.2%12 W · 14 L | +1.0wins | +0.04per pick | 42cpaid | +11.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x581b…f083backed Over | 50c | 25.74$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.87 | 68 | 47.1%32 W · 36 L | -4.9wins | -0.07per pick | 54cpaid | -12.2%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1d94…9100backed Over | 53c | 25$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.75 | 1,530 | 51.7%791 W · 739 L | +22.5wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x58c8…0300backed Under | 50c | 20$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 601 | 41.9%252 W · 349 L | -8.5wins | -0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -18.3%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7140…47e3backed Over | 50c | 20$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10 | 43 | 55.8%24 W · 19 L | +3.6wins | +0.08per pick | 47cpaid | +13.4%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa9d3…9d4bbacked Over | 50c | 20$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10 | 792 | 51.1%405 W · 387 L | +21.7wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf30a…3583backed Under | 50c | 20$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 76 | 40.8%31 W · 45 L | -9.3wins | -0.12per pick | 53cpaid | -22.8%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x4eb5…9846backed Under | 50c | 20$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | -2.8wins | -0.28per pick | 58cpaid | -47.3%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NHL and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Kraken vs. Flames: O/U 5.5this page
- Kraken vs. FlamesFlames won
- Spread: Flames (-1.5)Flames won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.