CS2 · resolved market
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs Aurora Gaming (BO3)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x448a4d4d770e711383b96dbc09fca88734693cd85e89d26fa079f4957b41a5cd
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- FURIAof FURIA, Aurora Gaming
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- CS2every record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $37,491
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $44,368
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $37,491 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 65 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in CS2 is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in CS2 | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xd9a3…b1dfbacked FURIA | 62c | 9,850$6,070 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,780.09 | 130 | 50%65 W · 65 L | +0.9wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcc30…c8a5backed Aurora Gaming | 40c | 8,057$3,200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,200 | 613 | 38.2%234 W · 379 L | -10.3wins | -0.02per pick | 40cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa41c…fadebacked Aurora Gaming | 38c | 5,632$2,140 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,140.02 | 76 | 46.1%35 W · 41 L | +4.8wins | +0.06per pick | 40cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb9ab…f282backed Aurora Gaming | 38c | 3,577$1,359 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,359.1 | 1,081 | 50.9%550 W · 531 L | +37.9wins | +0.04per pick | 47cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe895…c3dabacked FURIA | 61c | 2,000$1,220 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$780 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | +1.5wins | +0.19per pick | 43cpaid | +18.5%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2307…3934backed Aurora Gaming | 39c | 2,000$780 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$780 | 238 | 52.9%126 W · 112 L | -0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc4d9…4d8bbacked FURIA | 60c | 2,000$1,200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$800 | 154 | 52.6%81 W · 73 L | -3.7wins | -0.02per pick | 55cpaid | -2.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8156…27c2backed Aurora Gaming | 37c | 1,686$629 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$629.24 | 35 | 48.6%17 W · 18 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9823…02dbbacked FURIA | 69c | 1,557$1,077 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$480.26 | 470 | 55.7%262 W · 208 L | +27.7wins | +0.06per pick | 50cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6df6…8458backed Aurora Gaming | 31c | 1,521$477 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$476.68 | 324 | 25.3%82 W · 242 L | -2.1wins | -0.01per pick | 26cpaid | +10.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3c5b…50c9backed FURIA | 61c | 1,227$748 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$478.53 | 47 | 36.2%17 W · 30 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 36cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x644b…2145backed Aurora Gaming | 13c | 1,208$152 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$152.24 | 157 | 49%77 W · 80 L | +11.4wins | +0.07per pick | 42cpaid | +15.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x97e1…017bbacked FURIA | 62c | 1,000$620 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$380 | 263 | 51.3%135 W · 128 L | +7.0wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfd14…2267backed Aurora Gaming | 30c | 999.52$305 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$304.74 | 5,830 | 37.8%2,203 W · 3,627 L | +79.0wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfc2e…41a7backed FURIA | 62c | 798.66$495 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$303.49 | 22 | 68.2%15 W · 7 L | +4.7wins | +0.21per pick | 47cpaid | +58.6%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x53ab…65aabacked Aurora Gaming | 38c | 699.99$266 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$266 | 1,144 | 49.4%565 W · 579 L | +16.9wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x877e…b283backed FURIA | 62c | 620.95$385 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$235.96 | 63 | 50.8%32 W · 31 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2418…66c8backed FURIA | 62c | 611.29$378 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$233.29 | 608 | 53.3%324 W · 284 L | +20.1wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +9.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5388…4d5abacked FURIA | 61c | 599.99$366 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$234 | 220 | 56.4%124 W · 96 L | +19.9wins | +0.09per pick | 47cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x6d01…0ab1backed FURIA | 60c | 500$300 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$200 | 283 | 51.9%147 W · 136 L | +8.4wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +9.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd92d…e560backed FURIA | 62c | 446.47$277 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$169.66 | 586 | 51%299 W · 287 L | +3.8wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe6d7…b646backed Aurora Gaming | 19c | 439.27$83 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$83.37 | 87 | 37.9%33 W · 54 L | +1.1wins | +0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbb4d…de5abacked Aurora Gaming | 19c | 436.84$83 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$83 | 244 | 40.6%99 W · 145 L | -12.4wins | -0.05per pick | 46cpaid | -14.2%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xca38…460bbacked Aurora Gaming | 32c | 400$129 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$129 | 132 | 35.6%47 W · 85 L | -8.7wins | -0.07per pick | 42cpaid | -17.1%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2aa2…4d22backed FURIA | 62c | 395.13$243 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$151.8 | 12 | 50%6 W · 6 L | -1.4wins | -0.12per pick | 62cpaid | -18.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8541…a367backed FURIA | 61c | 329.99$201 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$128.7 | 283 | 44.2%125 W · 158 L | +17.1wins | +0.06per pick | 38cpaid | +14.7%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x93f2…da0ebacked FURIA | 62c | 327.65$203 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$124.51 | 33 | 36.4%12 W · 21 L | -7.4wins | -0.22per pick | 59cpaid | -40.6%equal weight | 36-0.13 edge/pick |
| 0xa61d…df1abacked FURIA | 62c | 322.58$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$122.58 | 166 | 49.4%82 W · 84 L | -15.4wins | -0.09per pick | 59cpaid | -18.4%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xcf0c…2265backed FURIA | 68c | 271.48$184 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$87.19 | 149 | 52.3%78 W · 71 L | -2.4wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -8.8%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0cf2…423abacked Aurora Gaming | 39c | 256.41$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 49 | 42.9%21 W · 28 L | -1.5wins | -0.03per pick | 46cpaid | -9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaa2b…adcfbacked Aurora Gaming | 39c | 252.56$99 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99.21 | 172 | 36.6%63 W · 109 L | -8.2wins | -0.05per pick | 41cpaid | -18.8%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2dae…a50bbacked FURIA | 62c | 242.69$150 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$92.22 | 142 | 33.8%48 W · 94 L | -18.8wins | -0.13per pick | 47cpaid | -32.7%equal weight | 37-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x18ea…f93bbacked FURIA | 62c | 224.19$139 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$85.19 | 25 | 60%15 W · 10 L | +1.1wins | +0.04per pick | 56cpaid | +6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7a78…add7backed FURIA | 62c | 188.34$117 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$70.95 | 1,969 | 46.7%919 W · 1,050 L | +12.4wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -14.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8725…eb10backed Aurora Gaming | 25c | 181.58$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.08 | 854 | 46.4%396 W · 458 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfb87…0335backed Aurora Gaming | 40c | 178.41$71 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$71.38 | 365 | 54.8%200 W · 165 L | +23.9wins | +0.07per pick | 48cpaid | +11.9%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x480d…f219backed FURIA | 62c | 161.29$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$61.29 | 367 | 51%187 W · 180 L | -15.8wins | -0.04per pick | 55cpaid | -10.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdc5b…f102backed FURIA | 62c | 141.94$88 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.94 | 736 | 58.2%428 W · 308 L | -22.8wins | -0.03per pick | 61cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6dc0…699abacked Aurora Gaming | 13c | 140$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.2 | 1,181 | 22.5%266 W · 915 L | +3.6wins | 0.00per pick | 22cpaid | -15%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5206…0f4cbacked Aurora Gaming | 18c | 130$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.9 | 265 | 35.5%94 W · 171 L | +3.6wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4731…cba8backed FURIA | 60c | 100$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40 | 100 | 55%55 W · 45 L | +7.3wins | +0.07per pick | 48cpaid | +14.7%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf02c…2cf8backed FURIA | 71c | 100$71 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29 | 14 | 71.4%10 W · 4 L | +0.7wins | +0.05per pick | 66cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe5c0…3cd3backed FURIA | 62c | 96.77$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.77 | 225 | 60.4%136 W · 89 L | +8.1wins | +0.04per pick | 57cpaid | +8.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe233…14a3backed FURIA | 62c | 81.13$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.83 | 234 | 54.7%128 W · 106 L | -6.4wins | -0.03per pick | 57cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd3ee…5c4abacked FURIA | 62c | 80.65$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.65 | 91 | 42.9%39 W · 52 L | -1.7wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -6%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7f22…be14backed FURIA | 62c | 72.58$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.58 | 76 | 60.5%46 W · 30 L | +1.3wins | +0.02per pick | 59cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4de9…4ab1backed Aurora Gaming | 39c | 72$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.08 | 31 | 41.9%13 W · 18 L | +1.3wins | +0.04per pick | 38cpaid | +15.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4895…0a83backed FURIA | 62c | 54.31$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.64 | 24 | 33.3%8 W · 16 L | -1.6wins | -0.07per pick | 40cpaid | -4.4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x046e…f91bbacked FURIA | 62c | 50$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19 | 14 | 42.9%6 W · 8 L | -2.4wins | -0.17per pick | 60cpaid | -33.6%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x33f1…7a59backed Aurora Gaming | 33c | 46.62$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.38 | 185 | 43.2%80 W · 105 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0657…14efbacked FURIA | 62c | 45.32$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.22 | 83 | 53%44 W · 39 L | -2.0wins | -0.02per pick | 55cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5137…1556backed FURIA | 60c | 41.75$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.7 | 216 | 39.8%86 W · 130 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1c3f…676cbacked FURIA | 62c | 40.32$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.32 | 102 | 61.8%63 W · 39 L | +7.8wins | +0.08per pick | 54cpaid | +14.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2129…4222backed FURIA | 79c | 39.51$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.18 | 273 | 45.8%125 W · 148 L | +3.9wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcb6b…604ebacked FURIA | 67c | 36$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.84 | 821 | 46.3%380 W · 441 L | -8.4wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe9ce…01a9backed Aurora Gaming | 38c | 31.9$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 45 | 57.8%26 W · 19 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 57cpaid | -6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xac0c…739cbacked FURIA | 62c | 30$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.4 | 660 | 34.1%225 W · 435 L | -21.3wins | -0.03per pick | 37cpaid | -22.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x398a…95b7backed FURIA | 62c | 30$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.4 | 32 | 37.5%12 W · 20 L | -3.8wins | -0.12per pick | 49cpaid | -34.3%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x9978…aaaebacked FURIA | 62c | 27.42$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.42 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -17.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x02aa…9c2abacked FURIA | 62c | 25.81$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.81 | 289 | 64%185 W · 104 L | +1.4wins | 0.00per pick | 64cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x38b8…5d35backed FURIA | 61c | 25$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.75 | 364 | 37.4%136 W · 228 L | +2.5wins | +0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8e86…7932backed FURIA | 62c | 24.19$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.19 | 283 | 46.6%132 W · 151 L | -7.4wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x729a…1e51backed FURIA | 78c | 20$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.4 | 102 | 52%53 W · 49 L | -12.2wins | -0.12per pick | 64cpaid | -21.4%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x8ec3…9766backed FURIA | 75c | 20$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5 | 41 | 68.3%28 W · 13 L | +2.9wins | +0.07per pick | 61cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x64a2…93f0backed FURIA | 73c | 16.44$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.44 | 16 | 50%8 W · 8 L | -2.0wins | -0.13per pick | 63cpaid | -24.5%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in CS2 and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.