Asian League · resolved market
FC Tōkyō vs. FC Mito Holly Hock: O/U 2.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x449469ce2649b3b4a32d87ec91c2fe48532ebcdf39b51a4cd93cfd475e36a873
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Asian Leagueevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $8,433
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $9,914
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $8,433 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 39 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Asian League is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Asian League | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xadfb…c2efbacked Over | 41c | 1,781$738 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,043.17 | 1,110 | 49.5%549 W · 561 L | +1.9wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Under | 57c | 1,021$579 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$579.03 | 5,946 | 46.1%2,743 W · 3,203 L | +50.5wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -6.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x46fb…2b75backed Over | 44c | 999.93$440 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$559.96 | 13 | 15.4%2 W · 11 L | -4.5wins | -0.34per pick | 50cpaid | -67.4%equal weight | 37-0.12 edge/pick |
| 0x5760…40aabacked Under | 56c | 863.4$487 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$486.92 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.17per pick | 50cpaid | -39%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa557…5e8abacked Under | 1c | 751.68$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.52 | 13 | 7.7%1 W · 12 L | +0.8wins | +0.06per pick | 2cpaid | +188.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd81f…6b75backed Over | 43c | 544.07$235 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$309.15 | 399 | 54.6%218 W · 181 L | +16.5wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe550…4ebbbacked Over | 38c | 506.86$193 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$314.3 | 218 | 30.7%67 W · 151 L | -1.4wins | -0.01per pick | 31cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x780f…5f16backed Under | 60c | 325.33$195 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$195.2 | 41 | 46.3%19 W · 22 L | -3.1wins | -0.08per pick | 54cpaid | -19%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5028…91c5backed Over | 42c | 299.91$126 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$173.95 | 151 | 33.8%51 W · 100 L | +3.4wins | +0.02per pick | 32cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x84ad…bfb7backed Under | 56c | 275.93$154 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$153.79 | 1,522 | 54.9%835 W · 687 L | +5.9wins | 0.00per pick | 54cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x948b…a188backed Under | 59c | 153.21$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$89.99 | 478 | 60.3%288 W · 190 L | +15.2wins | +0.03per pick | 57cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3982…2befbacked Under | 59c | 153.21$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$89.99 | 345 | 58.6%202 W · 143 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 59cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf02f…1ed8backed Under | 57c | 149.68$85 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$85.22 | 404 | 48%194 W · 210 L | +6.9wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | +7.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc766…1533backed Under | 21c | 121.96$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26 | 8 | 0%0 W · 8 L | -3.1wins | -0.39per pick | 39cpaid | -100%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xc75b…3ea7backed Under | 58c | 115.28$67 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67.23 | 282 | 53.5%151 W · 131 L | +2.4wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7ea5…de7bbacked Over | 40c | 111.33$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$66.8 | 1,764 | 50.2%886 W · 878 L | +31.3wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +6.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x77bc…b91bbacked Over | 62c | 102.31$63 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.12 | 1,356 | 45.5%617 W · 739 L | +15.0wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -13.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x43d7…1c75backed Over | 40c | 99.99$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60 | 102 | 45.1%46 W · 56 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x04e7…332fbacked Under | 62c | 94.57$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.63 | 12 | 33.3%4 W · 8 L | -2.1wins | -0.17per pick | 50cpaid | -33.8%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf46b…c51dbacked Under | 58c | 83.95$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.74 | 325 | 60.3%196 W · 129 L | +20.0wins | +0.06per pick | 54cpaid | +10.5%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x52d9…fb1abacked Over | 38c | 68.71$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.83 | 892 | 45%401 W · 491 L | -5.6wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -2.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf0ca…117abacked Over | 65c | 60.25$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.09 | 226 | 42.5%96 W · 130 L | +5.9wins | +0.03per pick | 40cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdb83…1e50backed Under | 58c | 58.34$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.11 | 1,221 | 50.2%613 W · 608 L | +12.0wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1683…e4abbacked Under | 58c | 52.2$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.28 | 40 | 45%18 W · 22 L | -2.7wins | -0.07per pick | 52cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x33af…288abacked Over | 38c | 50.67$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.42 | 387 | 37.5%145 W · 242 L | -1.7wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6474…7ab8backed Over | 39c | 49.65$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.38 | 65 | 32.3%21 W · 44 L | -5.6wins | -0.09per pick | 41cpaid | -18.9%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x0def…4ddbbacked Over | 35c | 44$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.6 | 62 | 48.4%30 W · 32 L | -1.1wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8217…4936backed Under | 59c | 40.02$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.61 | 51 | 62.7%32 W · 19 L | +1.0wins | +0.02per pick | 61cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x200f…7a96backed Over | 40c | 37$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.2 | 1,970 | 54.4%1,071 W · 899 L | +32.9wins | +0.02per pick | 53cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x35d1…1f70backed Under | 56c | 34.84$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.47 | 208 | 60.1%125 W · 83 L | +7.0wins | +0.03per pick | 57cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe697…708fbacked Under | 56c | 34.7$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.47 | 241 | 62.2%150 W · 91 L | +6.4wins | +0.03per pick | 60cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5dd3…14b2backed Under | 59c | 33.06$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.51 | 22 | 22.7%5 W · 17 L | -6.7wins | -0.30per pick | 53cpaid | -56.5%equal weight | 34-0.14 edge/pick |
| 0x43f5…40d0backed Under | 56c | 28.3$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.85 | 22 | 54.5%12 W · 10 L | -1.2wins | -0.05per pick | 60cpaid | -8.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa975…42eebacked Under | 57c | 26.89$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.25 | 95 | 54.7%52 W · 43 L | -1.4wins | -0.01per pick | 56cpaid | +6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5bfe…0741backed Over | 46c | 24.06$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.99 | 55 | 58.2%32 W · 23 L | +3.7wins | +0.07per pick | 51cpaid | +11.7%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa93e…0a8cbacked Under | 59c | 23.61$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.93 | 39 | 66.7%26 W · 13 L | +2.8wins | +0.07per pick | 59cpaid | +15.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3092…c9a8backed Under | 64c | 22.98$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.71 | 39 | 51.3%20 W · 19 L | -2.1wins | -0.05per pick | 57cpaid | -12.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x876d…1327backed Under | 59c | 22.36$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.13 | 12 | 33.3%4 W · 8 L | -2.3wins | -0.19per pick | 53cpaid | -48.1%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5a29…43bebacked Under | 56c | 18.99$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.63 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.56per pick | 56cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Asian League and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- FC Tōkyō vs. FC Mito Holly Hock: O/U 2.5this page
- FC Tōkyō vs. FC Mito Holly Hock: Both Teams to ScoreYes won
- FC Tōkyō vs. FC Mito Holly Hock: O/U 1.5Over won
- FC Tōkyō vs. FC Mito Holly Hock: O/U 3.5Over won
- FC Tōkyō vs. FC Mito Holly Hock: O/U 4.5Over won
- Spread: FC Mito Holly Hock (-1.5)FC Tōkyō won
- Spread: FC Tōkyō (-1.5)FC Tōkyō won
- Spread: FC Tōkyō (-2.5)FC Tōkyō won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.