Asian League · resolved market
FC Tōkyō vs. FC Mito Holly Hock: O/U 1.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x2f571becc2342c60810d5f8c6270e474151430540c5246b6e6d82fe9fb474ebe
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Asian Leagueevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $16,156
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $22,914
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $16,156 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 40 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Asian League is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Asian League | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xde93…bef4backed Over | 69c | 6,823$4,708 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,115.09 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +1.2wins | +0.41per pick | 59cpaid | +81.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7236…ea53backed Under | 31c | 1,600$496 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$496 | 183 | 53%97 W · 86 L | +3.2wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x374a…03edbacked Under | 31c | 1,200$372 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$372 | 120 | 50%60 W · 60 L | -3.2wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe1a6…d584backed Under | 31c | 700$217 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$217 | 131 | 54.2%71 W · 60 L | +1.2wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfb13…5946backed Under | 31c | 600$186 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$186 | 172 | 47.1%81 W · 91 L | -8.2wins | -0.05per pick | 52cpaid | -12.1%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7ea5…de7bbacked Under | 31c | 534.89$165 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$165.45 | 1,766 | 50.2%887 W · 879 L | +31.4wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +6.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xadfb…c2efbacked Over | 68c | 519.81$352 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$167.42 | 1,116 | 49.5%552 W · 564 L | +1.9wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3790…5e8bbacked Over | 64c | 499.99$320 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$180 | 7 | 71.4%5 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 73cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Under | 34c | 468.03$161 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$161.31 | 5,963 | 46%2,744 W · 3,219 L | +46.2wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x36b3…e421backed Under | 33c | 391.48$127 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$127.27 | 186 | 44.6%83 W · 103 L | -0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3388…61d7backed Under | 31c | 200$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62 | 215 | 52.1%112 W · 103 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | +3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x288a…0048backed Under | 31c | 187.48$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.12 | 144 | 53.5%77 W · 67 L | +0.8wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3f6a…a7bfbacked Under | 31c | 180$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.8 | 158 | 54.4%86 W · 72 L | +2.5wins | +0.02per pick | 53cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe75e…4b67backed Under | 31c | 164.36$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.95 | 161 | 52.2%84 W · 77 L | -1.3wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -4.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf02f…1ed8backed Under | 32c | 162.23$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.77 | 404 | 48%194 W · 210 L | +6.9wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | +7.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x60ab…e297backed Under | 31c | 160$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.6 | 126 | 52.4%66 W · 60 L | +0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x606f…b043backed Under | 31c | 160$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.6 | 150 | 50.7%76 W · 74 L | -3.6wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -6.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8f8b…9e2dbacked Under | 31c | 160$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.6 | 144 | 52.1%75 W · 69 L | -2.2wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x84ad…bfb7backed Under | 36c | 120.4$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.46 | 1,522 | 54.9%835 W · 687 L | +5.9wins | 0.00per pick | 54cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf1e0…041bbacked Under | 31c | 100$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31 | 182 | 56%102 W · 80 L | +1.4wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6fa1…6edbbacked Under | 31c | 100$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31 | 150 | 54%81 W · 69 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 54cpaid | -1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf472…fd6ebacked Under | 33c | 71.68$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24 | 91 | 41.8%38 W · 53 L | -1.2wins | -0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -12.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6ed3…0a22backed Under | 31c | 60$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.6 | 161 | 54.7%88 W · 73 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x04a5…d093backed Under | 31c | 60$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.6 | 133 | 51.9%69 W · 64 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd454…b47fbacked Under | 31c | 59.45$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.69 | 22 | 45.5%10 W · 12 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -8.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6f81…2bb7backed Under | 31c | 40$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.4 | 165 | 55.8%92 W · 73 L | +2.7wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdd59…2e2fbacked Under | 31c | 40$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.4 | 179 | 53.6%96 W · 83 L | -2.8wins | -0.02per pick | 55cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x654d…ba8fbacked Under | 27c | 37.76$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.19 | 40 | 25%10 W · 30 L | -4.9wins | -0.12per pick | 37cpaid | -52%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xa5dd…69ddbacked Under | 31c | 34.05$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.57 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.6wins | +0.19per pick | 48cpaid | +38.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe697…708fbacked Under | 32c | 32.5$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.43 | 241 | 62.2%150 W · 91 L | +6.4wins | +0.03per pick | 60cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x948b…a188backed Under | 32c | 31.65$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.13 | 478 | 60.3%288 W · 190 L | +15.2wins | +0.03per pick | 57cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf46b…c51dbacked Under | 32c | 31.65$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.13 | 325 | 60.3%196 W · 129 L | +20.0wins | +0.06per pick | 54cpaid | +10.5%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x3982…2befbacked Under | 32c | 31.65$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.13 | 345 | 58.6%202 W · 143 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 59cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc75b…3ea7backed Under | 32c | 31.65$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.13 | 282 | 53.5%151 W · 131 L | +2.4wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa24f…7c58backed Over | 69c | 28.69$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.9 | 62 | 56.5%35 W · 27 L | -1.8wins | -0.03per pick | 59cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x77bc…b91bbacked Over | 64c | 26.38$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.44 | 1,357 | 45.5%617 W · 740 L | +14.5wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -13.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x38a5…37a5backed Over | 72c | 20.41$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.66 | 47 | 68.1%32 W · 15 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 69cpaid | 0%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdaf9…1646backed Over | 68c | 20.15$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.45 | 36 | 80.6%29 W · 7 L | +4.9wins | +0.14per pick | 67cpaid | +19.4%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x2b35…0bfebacked Over | 68c | 19.99$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.35 | 424 | 51.2%217 W · 207 L | +2.0wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1792…118abacked Over | 75c | 16$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4 | 150 | 68%102 W · 48 L | +16.7wins | +0.11per pick | 57cpaid | +16.8%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Asian League and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- FC Tōkyō vs. FC Mito Holly Hock: O/U 1.5this page
- FC Tōkyō vs. FC Mito Holly Hock: Both Teams to ScoreYes won
- FC Tōkyō vs. FC Mito Holly Hock: O/U 2.5Over won
- FC Tōkyō vs. FC Mito Holly Hock: O/U 3.5Over won
- FC Tōkyō vs. FC Mito Holly Hock: O/U 4.5Over won
- Spread: FC Mito Holly Hock (-1.5)FC Tōkyō won
- Spread: FC Tōkyō (-1.5)FC Tōkyō won
- Spread: FC Tōkyō (-2.5)FC Tōkyō won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.