Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 104-105°F on August 21?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x4498abb3b6075de36bc02dd9ee6faa7600e71d816a660db5fa83dde18f864e2c
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $15,896
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $11,119
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $15,896 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 82 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x09b4…e56dbacked Yes | 2c | 4,661$74 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$73.73 | 720 | 42.2%304 W · 416 L | +26.5wins | +0.04per pick | 39cpaid | +30.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xaa28…090bbacked Yes | 4c | 1,037$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.92 | 2,239 | 15%335 W · 1,904 L | +54.6wins | +0.02per pick | 13cpaid | +24%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x24ed…8a18backed Yes | 49c | 700.57$342 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$341.84 | 187 | 32.1%60 W · 127 L | -3.0wins | -0.02per pick | 34cpaid | -9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed No | 49c | 625.52$305 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$320.86 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9f6a…eb61backed Yes | 54c | 577.89$315 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$314.57 | 103 | 42.7%44 W · 59 L | +1.0wins | +0.01per pick | 42cpaid | +121.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1201…005bbacked Yes | 4c | 576.53$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.5 | 167 | 9.6%16 W · 151 L | -1.9wins | -0.01per pick | 11cpaid | -32.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8c28…66b0backed Yes | 51c | 402.19$204 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$204.08 | 17 | 64.7%11 W · 6 L | +2.8wins | +0.16per pick | 48cpaid | +25.2%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x9c96…1fdebacked Yes | 51c | 350.22$179 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$178.61 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.8wins | +0.20per pick | 55cpaid | +34.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1b29…f288backed Yes | 56c | 315.82$176 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$176 | 100 | 44%44 W · 56 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x58b9…e12fbacked No | 45c | 255.82$115 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$141.25 | 132 | 54.5%72 W · 60 L | +4.1wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 51c | 224.56$114 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$110.43 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0484…4830backed Yes | 53c | 213.4$113 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$112.87 | 5,186 | 47.2%2,447 W · 2,739 L | +66.7wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe086…0450backed No | 46c | 206.77$95 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$111.59 | 1,243 | 52.5%652 W · 591 L | -18.7wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf73f…ee53backed No | 44c | 200$88 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$112 | 2,950 | 33.6%992 W · 1,958 L | +9.9wins | 0.00per pick | 33cpaid | +4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2165…f598backed Yes | 10c | 200$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 141 | 13.5%19 W · 122 L | +2.0wins | +0.01per pick | 12cpaid | +5.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2572…80dbbacked Yes | 52c | 194.67$101 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$101.23 | 144 | 46.5%67 W · 77 L | -3.3wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x28ea…7367backed Yes | 55c | 175.51$96 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$95.93 | 1,896 | 61.5%1,166 W · 730 L | -5.9wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x30fb…7db4backed No | 47c | 168.69$79 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$89.38 | 4,117 | 47.6%1,958 W · 2,159 L | -158.0wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd851…64d7backed Yes | 57c | 166.54$95 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$95 | 7 | 71.4%5 W · 2 L | +0.3wins | +0.05per pick | 66cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 69c | 163.84$113 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.62 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0xe40a…e4a2backed No | 63c | 138.41$87 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.34 | 1,316 | 56.2%740 W · 576 L | -18.6wins | -0.01per pick | 58cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcf37…993fbacked No | 44c | 136.77$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$76.93 | 656 | 25.8%169 W · 487 L | -13.2wins | -0.02per pick | 28cpaid | -35.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa9b7…f43cbacked No | 49c | 135.5$66 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$69.32 | 308 | 34.4%106 W · 202 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 34cpaid | -8.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb0c8…fe7fbacked No | 58c | 128.55$74 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54.21 | 4,142 | 54.1%2,241 W · 1,901 L | -16.6wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x52eb…67acbacked Yes | 59c | 124$73 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$73.16 | 4,988 | 49.8%2,485 W · 2,503 L | -155.4wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5de8…3eddbacked Yes | 50c | 120$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 461 | 48.8%225 W · 236 L | -3.3wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa33d…3ef2backed Yes | 52c | 105.77$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55 | 456 | 75.2%343 W · 113 L | +27.6wins | +0.06per pick | 69cpaid | +13%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x7df1…6583backed Yes | 60c | 100$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | +23.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x61f9…8055backed No | 45c | 100$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55 | 905 | 55.6%503 W · 402 L | -1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 56cpaid | -1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbbb7…a11abacked No | 38c | 100$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$62.5 | 1,196 | 57.9%693 W · 503 L | +47.6wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4476…c5fcbacked No | 46c | 100$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54 | 425 | 47.5%202 W · 223 L | -16.0wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -9.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5c0a…a2c3backed No | 46c | 100$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54 | 1,280 | 51.2%655 W · 625 L | -33.7wins | -0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf56c…ad84backed Yes | 10c | 100$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 507 | 3.4%17 W · 490 L | -4.9wins | -0.01per pick | 4cpaid | -28.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x012f…400dbacked No | 48c | 100$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52 | 348 | 31%108 W · 240 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 31cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed No | 46c | 99.58$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.89 | 5,897 | 49.4%2,913 W · 2,984 L | -103.3wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2d8c…3e30backed Yes | 53c | 96$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.88 | 123 | 50.4%62 W · 61 L | -14.7wins | -0.12per pick | 62cpaid | -19.9%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x7342…d5b4backed No | 50c | 94$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47 | 159 | 66.7%106 W · 53 L | +8.5wins | +0.05per pick | 61cpaid | +10.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4248…60abbacked Yes | 51c | 86.21$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.14 | 2,219 | 58.7%1,303 W · 916 L | -11.5wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3f30…f8debacked Yes | 49c | 84$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.34 | 3,830 | 47.1%1,805 W · 2,025 L | +63.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 43c | 78.19$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.57 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe240…7cb3backed No | 50c | 75$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.5 | 19 | 52.6%10 W · 9 L | +1.1wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | +8.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x38e2…2909backed No | 49c | 67.55$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.55 | 3,479 | 53%1,845 W · 1,634 L | +72.1wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf7aa…ddd6backed No | 54c | 67.35$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.81 | 1,274 | 50.9%649 W · 625 L | -35.9wins | -0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -10.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd1ed…d7cbbacked No | 60c | 63.8$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.66 | 799 | 47.9%383 W · 416 L | -24.6wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -20%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2b27…ff88backed No | 47c | 60$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32 | 98 | 49%48 W · 50 L | -6.1wins | -0.06per pick | 55cpaid | -13.1%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0506…bc49backed Yes | 51c | 57.69$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.42 | 56 | 58.9%33 W · 23 L | +1.6wins | +0.03per pick | 56cpaid | +23.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3653…ef74backed No | 58c | 56.8$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.03 | 2,124 | 57.4%1,220 W · 904 L | +69.9wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x496f…fa5dbacked No | 54c | 52.87$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.37 | 4,514 | 52.9%2,389 W · 2,125 L | +47.8wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5695…60e9backed Yes | 51c | 52.66$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.07 | 192 | 52.1%100 W · 92 L | -2.3wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x69f0…fb27backed No | 70c | 50.91$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.26 | 2,118 | 58.2%1,233 W · 885 L | +78.8wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf361…08f6backed Yes | 51c | 50.42$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.49 | 47 | 63.8%30 W · 17 L | +4.4wins | +0.09per pick | 54cpaid | +12.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xcb32…79aabacked No | 46c | 50$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.25 | 1,187 | 62.2%738 W · 449 L | +27.8wins | +0.02per pick | 60cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe695…538ebacked Yes | 52c | 50$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.2 | 818 | 55%450 W · 368 L | +1.5wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x904d…9faabacked Yes | 54c | 47.19$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.38 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x229c…b966backed No | 42c | 45.56$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.54 | 1,567 | 37.2%583 W · 984 L | +243.6wins | +0.16per pick | 22cpaid | +25.1%equal weight | 67+0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x4374…3d05backed No | 41c | 45$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.75 | 341 | 51.3%175 W · 166 L | -26.9wins | -0.08per pick | 59cpaid | -16.1%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x122c…fbedbacked No | 51c | 42$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.78 | 771 | 51%393 W · 378 L | +23.7wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa25a…04b7backed No | 49c | 41.99$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.43 | 19 | 47.4%9 W · 10 L | +1.4wins | +0.08per pick | 40cpaid | +9.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2307…2162backed Yes | 52c | 38.46$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 50 | 58%29 W · 21 L | +1.1wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | +2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc85b…ba1bbacked No | 50c | 38$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19 | 190 | 71.6%136 W · 54 L | +5.9wins | +0.03per pick | 68cpaid | +5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6c80…c3ddbacked No | 50c | 38$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19 | 29 | 75.9%22 W · 7 L | +2.8wins | +0.10per pick | 66cpaid | +19.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8827…5d62backed No | 50c | 37.74$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.87 | 1,772 | 50.5%895 W · 877 L | +43.0wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9e3e…f882backed Yes | 51c | 37.33$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.04 | 403 | 37.2%150 W · 253 L | -4.5wins | -0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -17.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2e1f…8fdebacked No | 35c | 34.99$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.75 | 982 | 36.7%360 W · 622 L | +37.9wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | +9.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd057…6054backed Yes | 56c | 34.96$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.43 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.8wins | -0.59per pick | 59cpaid | -100%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5cd6…7453backed No | 50c | 31.04$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.66 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.6wins | +0.15per pick | 60cpaid | +18.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xea34…33bcbacked No | 49c | 30.61$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.61 | 63 | 61.9%39 W · 24 L | +3.1wins | +0.05per pick | 57cpaid | +11%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x93f7…c133backed Yes | 60c | 30$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.1 | 185 | 55.7%103 W · 82 L | -1.0wins | -0.01per pick | 56cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x765f…15fcbacked No | 51c | 27$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.35 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.13per pick | 53cpaid | +22.4%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3e20…dddcbacked Yes | 51c | 25.53$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.02 | 285 | 46.3%132 W · 153 L | -17.3wins | -0.06per pick | 52cpaid | -11.8%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x9b12…c2d5backed No | 55c | 25.39$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.31 | 2,090 | 56.7%1,186 W · 904 L | +60.1wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xeb68…e362backed No | 51c | 25.15$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.43 | 2,118 | 59.1%1,251 W · 867 L | +107.9wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xdfbd…5a6cbacked Yes | 58c | 25$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.42 | 635 | 38.4%244 W · 391 L | +12.2wins | +0.02per pick | 37cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd654…2efebacked Yes | 53c | 24.26$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.96 | 404 | 61.4%248 W · 156 L | -6.3wins | -0.02per pick | 63cpaid | -1%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x914d…dd11backed Yes | 59c | 23$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.57 | 102 | 46.1%47 W · 55 L | -6.8wins | -0.07per pick | 53cpaid | -8.8%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa239…1b0dbacked Yes | 51c | 21.57$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.0wins | -0.48per pick | 48cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdd7a…7bfbbacked Yes | 51c | 20.96$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.62 | 4,961 | 68.3%3,386 W · 1,575 L | +65.6wins | +0.01per pick | 67cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x351a…f836backed Yes | 55c | 20$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 286 | 49.3%141 W · 145 L | +7.3wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x62c8…08d4backed No | 76c | 20$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.75 | 32 | 62.5%20 W · 12 L | +3.0wins | +0.09per pick | 53cpaid | +21.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xcfd7…dfe9backed Yes | 50c | 20$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | -1.1wins | -0.11per pick | 41cpaid | -39.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0b29…dc3abacked No | 55c | 18.89$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.47 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +1.4wins | +0.47per pick | 53cpaid | +89.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1f85…7b02backed No | 70c | 18.18$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.47 | 2,068 | 55.9%1,156 W · 912 L | +44.2wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 104-105°F on August 21?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Dallas be 99°F or below on August 21?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 100-101°F on August 21?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 102-103°F on August 21?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 106-107°F on August 21?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.