Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 11°C on April 24?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x449afc28d0104be7d8f818b38d6a65c9d58dfd26c431f291835c7b7ff0d9ae1f
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $19,040
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $19,197
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $19,040 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 62 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xf4cd…0516backed Yes | 18c | 1,000$180 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$820 | 19 | 57.9%11 W · 8 L | +2.7wins | +0.14per pick | 44cpaid | +73.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xbb9f…557bbacked No | 13c | 793.17$104 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$103.52 | 722 | 22.3%161 W · 561 L | -37.3wins | -0.05per pick | 27cpaid | -47.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc4f9…8d24backed No | 6c | 593.24$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.02 | 477 | 38.8%185 W · 292 L | +18.4wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | +11.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 9c | 428.65$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.13 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0b87…9414backed No | 57c | 311.5$178 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$178.3 | 2,001 | 38.4%768 W · 1,233 L | +1.7wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7b20…bc23backed No | 66c | 303$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$199.98 | 811 | 65.8%534 W · 277 L | -37.1wins | -0.05per pick | 70cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa3c2…df3dbacked No | 11c | 293.76$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.94 | 1,840 | 37%681 W · 1,159 L | -8.2wins | 0.00per pick | 37cpaid | -18.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb06a…52f5backed Yes | 66c | 272.49$180 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$92.34 | 5,832 | 36.7%2,138 W · 3,694 L | +211.1wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | -24.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 22c | 269.18$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$209.41 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x17f0…20febacked No | 8c | 238.22$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.95 | 151 | 6.6%10 W · 141 L | -3.2wins | -0.02per pick | 9cpaid | -53.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9c68…7936backed Yes | 43c | 220.12$94 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$125.84 | 107 | 84.1%90 W · 17 L | +30.1wins | +0.28per pick | 56cpaid | +66%equal weight | 75+0.23 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed Yes | 22c | 205.91$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$161.14 | 7,481 | 37.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L | +97.4wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaa17…aa48backed No | 7c | 205.55$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.39 | 122 | 26.2%32 W · 90 L | +10.2wins | +0.08per pick | 18cpaid | +133.7%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x8302…8b44backed Yes | 24c | 153.84$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$116.88 | 117 | 37.6%44 W · 73 L | -8.8wins | -0.08per pick | 45cpaid | -12.9%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa8c8…b823backed No | 12c | 153.75$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.19 | 42 | 71.4%30 W · 12 L | +2.3wins | +0.06per pick | 66cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf899…0759backed Yes | 25c | 152.55$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$115.13 | 267 | 38.6%103 W · 164 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 39cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6e41…5e0cbacked No | 17c | 148.44$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.83 | 1,061 | 47.9%508 W · 553 L | +32.9wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa0b1…6754backed Yes | 72c | 109.59$79 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.6 | 354 | 65%230 W · 124 L | +6.8wins | +0.02per pick | 63cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf132…c706backed No | 26c | 107.76$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.02 | 308 | 13.6%42 W · 266 L | +3.7wins | +0.01per pick | 12cpaid | +22.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2671…a5fabacked No | 75c | 105.27$79 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$78.56 | 190 | 59.5%113 W · 77 L | -5.2wins | -0.03per pick | 62cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9f12…aa7cbacked Yes | 19c | 99.99$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$81 | 77 | 28.6%22 W · 55 L | +0.7wins | +0.01per pick | 28cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x362f…b8eabacked No | 74c | 97.42$72 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$72.25 | 55 | 49.1%27 W · 28 L | +0.9wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xec25…dec6backed Yes | 72c | 97.33$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.71 | 111 | 72.1%80 W · 31 L | +7.6wins | +0.07per pick | 65cpaid | +8.5%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked No | 55c | 95.37$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.17 | 2,119 | 36.1%764 W · 1,355 L | -12.1wins | -0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -26.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x715e…c3b0backed No | 16c | 91.19$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.17 | 11 | 0%0 W · 11 L | -2.6wins | -0.24per pick | 24cpaid | -100%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xe7c9…d2b8backed No | 33c | 88.09$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.91 | 535 | 47.5%254 W · 281 L | -8.6wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +3.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfa28…c37ebacked Yes | 24c | 81.5$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$62.33 | 3,939 | 35.3%1,392 W · 2,547 L | +35.4wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0a6d…1d0abacked Yes | 19c | 74$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$59.94 | 214 | 29.4%63 W · 151 L | -2.2wins | -0.01per pick | 30cpaid | -17.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9c31…68a1backed No | 22c | 68.16$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 195 | 47.2%92 W · 103 L | -9.0wins | -0.05per pick | 52cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5c38…f194backed No | 34c | 64$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.05 | 2,517 | 47.2%1,188 W · 1,329 L | +52.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2b59…9db6backed Yes | 32c | 58.31$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.52 | 1,901 | 55.6%1,057 W · 844 L | +7.7wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x997e…990dbacked Yes | 28c | 57.79$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.88 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | +0.8wins | +0.16per pick | 24cpaid | +66.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x487d…6813backed Yes | 50c | 52.62$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.38 | 61 | 42.6%26 W · 35 L | +3.4wins | +0.06per pick | 37cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfd8e…aea4backed No | 79c | 50.49$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.88 | 2,268 | 79.5%1,803 W · 465 L | +98.4wins | +0.04per pick | 75cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xef98…b586backed No | 66c | 50$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.75 | 907 | 34.5%313 W · 594 L | -5.9wins | -0.01per pick | 35cpaid | +3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 44c | 49.47$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.58 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0xd190…c9b2backed Yes | 22c | 49.08$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.47 | 25 | 20%5 W · 20 L | +0.5wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +14.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5964…35dfbacked No | 20c | 49$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.03 | 1,279 | 33.6%430 W · 849 L | -6.3wins | 0.00per pick | 34cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfe3b…ae48backed Yes | 30c | 47.11$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.17 | 250 | 58.4%146 W · 104 L | +22.6wins | +0.09per pick | 49cpaid | +19.6%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x75b0…e7b7backed No | 78c | 46.81$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.52 | 1,585 | 78.5%1,244 W · 341 L | +39.7wins | +0.03per pick | 76cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcc2e…c9e1backed No | 36c | 40.73$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.66 | 204 | 31.9%65 W · 139 L | -14.5wins | -0.07per pick | 39cpaid | -18.9%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf51b…ca1bbacked No | 31c | 40$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.4 | 1,274 | 34%433 W · 841 L | +46.9wins | +0.04per pick | 30cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcd75…d07ebacked No | 44c | 39.72$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.38 | 154 | 33.8%52 W · 102 L | +1.3wins | +0.01per pick | 33cpaid | -10.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x75f3…fe29backed No | 71c | 38.09$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.86 | 521 | 55.3%288 W · 233 L | -5.9wins | -0.01per pick | 56cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xba6e…e245backed No | 80c | 33.69$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.95 | 86 | 76.7%66 W · 20 L | +3.2wins | +0.04per pick | 73cpaid | +3.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5127…6f96backed No | 76c | 32.9$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 123 | 74%91 W · 32 L | +6.4wins | +0.05per pick | 69cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf05a…d78fbacked No | 76c | 32.9$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 126 | 70.6%89 W · 37 L | +4.1wins | +0.03per pick | 67cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x53bc…be7cbacked No | 77c | 32.47$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 627 | 70.5%442 W · 185 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 71cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xeb54…d452backed No | 66c | 30$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.8 | 4,525 | 65.6%2,967 W · 1,558 L | -134.0wins | -0.03per pick | 69cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2869…527dbacked No | 61c | 30$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.3 | 937 | 34.9%327 W · 610 L | -203.5wins | -0.22per pick | 57cpaid | -43.2%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0xe233…c70bbacked No | 77c | 30$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.15 | 549 | 66.7%366 W · 183 L | -27.1wins | -0.05per pick | 72cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x94b1…27cbbacked No | 75c | 26.5$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 975 | 70.6%688 W · 287 L | +5.2wins | +0.01per pick | 70cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x31d8…ae11backed Yes | 74c | 26.26$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.77 | 15 | 66.7%10 W · 5 L | +1.5wins | +0.10per pick | 57cpaid | -8.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe422…4d64backed No | 45c | 25$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.25 | 2,065 | 43.6%900 W · 1,165 L | -11.3wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf4b7…91f8backed No | 80c | 24.74$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.79 | 77 | 77.9%60 W · 17 L | +2.1wins | +0.03per pick | 75cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1098…10a7backed No | 75c | 20.02$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.02 | 417 | 33.8%141 W · 276 L | -17.0wins | -0.04per pick | 38cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3f30…f8debacked Yes | 75c | 20$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5 | 3,830 | 47.1%1,805 W · 2,025 L | +63.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc135…a01abacked Yes | 74c | 19.47$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.12 | 616 | 59.3%365 W · 251 L | +68.7wins | +0.11per pick | 48cpaid | +17%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x906f…371abacked No | 75c | 17.18$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.96 | 2,495 | 69.9%1,744 W · 751 L | +80.3wins | +0.03per pick | 67cpaid | +5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4248…60abbacked No | 76c | 16.94$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.87 | 2,219 | 58.7%1,303 W · 916 L | -11.5wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc24f…81d3backed No | 79c | 16.62$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.13 | 985 | 71%699 W · 286 L | +5.7wins | +0.01per pick | 70cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x565c…585abacked No | 80c | 14.7$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.76 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | -1.2wins | -0.17per pick | 74cpaid | -23.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 11°C on April 24?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 10°C on April 24?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 12°C on April 24?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 13°C or higher on April 24?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 8°C on April 24?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 9°C on April 24?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.