Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 10°C on April 24?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xc0533a796704c58ca63f822a5226d4fa7305822843ec40fb93262cabb8a057fc
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $7,224
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $7,074
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $7,224 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 59 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x938d…8674backed Yes | 53c | 907.41$479 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$479.39 | 467 | 33.4%156 W · 311 L | +21.4wins | +0.05per pick | 29cpaid | +12%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7b20…bc23backed No | 66c | 301.43$199 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$102.92 | 811 | 65.8%534 W · 277 L | -37.1wins | -0.05per pick | 70cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x17f0…20febacked Yes | 5c | 252.99$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.65 | 151 | 6.6%10 W · 141 L | -3.2wins | -0.02per pick | 9cpaid | -53.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0a6d…1d0abacked Yes | 11c | 247$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.17 | 214 | 29.4%63 W · 151 L | -2.2wins | -0.01per pick | 30cpaid | -17.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb8fc…88e1backed Yes | 33c | 206.46$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$68.13 | 1,298 | 33.1%430 W · 868 L | +39.5wins | +0.03per pick | 30cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2232…e889backed Yes | 36c | 200$72 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$72 | 165 | 29.1%48 W · 117 L | +12.9wins | +0.08per pick | 21cpaid | +62.4%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xbb9f…557bbacked No | 60c | 148.89$89 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$59.42 | 722 | 22.3%161 W · 561 L | -37.3wins | -0.05per pick | 27cpaid | -47.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xfe3b…ae48backed Yes | 72c | 135.12$97 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$97.19 | 250 | 58.4%146 W · 104 L | +22.6wins | +0.09per pick | 49cpaid | +19.6%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xf899…0759backed Yes | 37c | 134.1$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.25 | 267 | 38.6%103 W · 164 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 39cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x362f…b8eabacked Yes | 30c | 118.18$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.13 | 55 | 49.1%27 W · 28 L | +0.9wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0b87…9414backed No | 31c | 101.12$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$69.77 | 2,001 | 38.4%768 W · 1,233 L | +1.7wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x951c…d8c7backed Yes | 32c | 98.09$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.26 | 683 | 35.4%242 W · 441 L | -0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 36cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdd31…0a42backed No | 67c | 97.4$65 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.14 | 126 | 38.1%48 W · 78 L | +2.9wins | +0.02per pick | 36cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 39c | 96.69$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58.55 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4a91…983fbacked Yes | 61c | 96.15$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.08 | 139 | 42.4%59 W · 80 L | -1.9wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -19.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf694…24e3backed Yes | 23c | 90.9$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.91 | 111 | 29.7%33 W · 78 L | -3.1wins | -0.03per pick | 33cpaid | -1%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x01a6…59b0backed No | 67c | 79.01$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.37 | 1,679 | 61.7%1,036 W · 643 L | +6.3wins | 0.00per pick | 61cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xae68…064abacked No | 67c | 78.16$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.79 | 2,555 | 63.8%1,631 W · 924 L | +38.4wins | +0.02per pick | 62cpaid | +8.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xef2e…10c3backed Yes | 50c | 74.71$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.26 | 402 | 42.5%171 W · 231 L | -12.4wins | -0.03per pick | 46cpaid | -12.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4248…60abbacked No | 29c | 74.7$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.34 | 2,219 | 58.7%1,303 W · 916 L | -11.5wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2671…a5fabacked No | 75c | 70.59$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.6 | 190 | 59.5%113 W · 77 L | -5.2wins | -0.03per pick | 62cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5c38…f194backed No | 34c | 64$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.95 | 2,517 | 47.2%1,188 W · 1,329 L | +52.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcc11…dadbbacked No | 30c | 62.39$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.79 | 157 | 49%77 W · 80 L | +2.2wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +5.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb06a…52f5backed Yes | 44c | 60$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.4 | 5,832 | 36.7%2,138 W · 3,694 L | +211.1wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | -24.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2b59…9db6backed Yes | 32c | 58.29$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.72 | 1,901 | 55.6%1,057 W · 844 L | +7.7wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbb1a…1e6dbacked No | 67c | 54.86$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.1 | 1,359 | 30.2%411 W · 948 L | -92.9wins | -0.07per pick | 37cpaid | -22.9%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xc518…2594backed No | 33c | 50$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.5 | 1,928 | 53.5%1,032 W · 896 L | +39.0wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfba3…4e15backed No | 50c | 50$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25 | 278 | 51.8%144 W · 134 L | +4.3wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2986…b3a9backed No | 30c | 50$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35 | 2,995 | 31.4%940 W · 2,055 L | +41.6wins | +0.01per pick | 30cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5e5d…9491backed No | 71c | 49.3$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.3 | 308 | 59.1%182 W · 126 L | -10.3wins | -0.03per pick | 62cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc6f7…7bb4backed No | 69c | 49.1$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.18 | 40 | 25%10 W · 30 L | -1.2wins | -0.03per pick | 28cpaid | -28.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa200…27b0backed No | 33c | 46.65$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.26 | 154 | 35.7%55 W · 99 L | -3.5wins | -0.02per pick | 38cpaid | -17%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x487d…6813backed Yes | 33c | 46.09$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.11 | 61 | 42.6%26 W · 35 L | +3.4wins | +0.06per pick | 37cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x36c2…2b8cbacked No | 66c | 45.5$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.47 | 707 | 70.2%496 W · 211 L | -4.2wins | -0.01per pick | 71cpaid | -2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb897…7007backed Yes | 35c | 44.98$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.74 | 110 | 38.2%42 W · 68 L | +3.2wins | +0.03per pick | 35cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4ec1…07a5backed No | 66c | 42.32$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.26 | 247 | 68.4%169 W · 78 L | +12.8wins | +0.05per pick | 63cpaid | +4.2%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4a20…bf45backed Yes | 79c | 41.56$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.7 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.20per pick | 54cpaid | +7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe233…c70bbacked No | 71c | 41.11$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.79 | 549 | 66.7%366 W · 183 L | -27.1wins | -0.05per pick | 72cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf51b…ca1bbacked No | 31c | 40$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.6 | 1,274 | 34%433 W · 841 L | +46.9wins | +0.04per pick | 30cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x044f…d1f1backed No | 65c | 40$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14 | 8,162 | 49.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L | +269.7wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc323…4408backed No | 73c | 39.26$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.5 | 335 | 67.5%226 W · 109 L | -6.3wins | -0.02per pick | 69cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x652f…bc41backed Yes | 35c | 37.4$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.09 | 53 | 49.1%26 W · 27 L | -1.8wins | -0.03per pick | 52cpaid | -14%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x75f3…fe29backed No | 33c | 37.32$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25 | 521 | 55.3%288 W · 233 L | -5.9wins | -0.01per pick | 56cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb4c1…bec3backed Yes | 44c | 36.8$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.34 | 116 | 44%51 W · 65 L | +0.9wins | +0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -2.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9c31…68a1backed No | 42c | 31.02$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.14 | 195 | 47.2%92 W · 103 L | -9.0wins | -0.05per pick | 52cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x356b…1c3fbacked Yes | 34c | 30$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.2 | 591 | 25.9%153 W · 438 L | -3.1wins | -0.01per pick | 26cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xeb54…d452backed No | 66c | 29.99$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.2 | 4,525 | 65.6%2,967 W · 1,558 L | -134.0wins | -0.03per pick | 69cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf55f…8e92backed No | 67c | 28.89$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.54 | 165 | 48.5%80 W · 85 L | -13.3wins | -0.08per pick | 57cpaid | -19.9%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xba6e…e245backed No | 75c | 28.78$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.2 | 86 | 76.7%66 W · 20 L | +3.2wins | +0.04per pick | 73cpaid | +3.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf528…7e5bbacked No | 67c | 28.61$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.47 | 1,313 | 76.1%999 W · 314 L | +20.9wins | +0.02per pick | 74cpaid | +2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2f01…4c3abacked No | 67c | 28.52$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.41 | 161 | 59%95 W · 66 L | -6.4wins | -0.04per pick | 63cpaid | -11.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe422…4d64backed No | 45c | 25$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.75 | 2,065 | 43.6%900 W · 1,165 L | -11.3wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed No | 45c | 23.66$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.96 | 7,148 | 9.3%666 W · 6,482 L | -1,105.8wins | -0.15per pick | 25cpaid | -75.9%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x510f…a43cbacked Yes | 50c | 22.38$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.28 | 3,474 | 33.9%1,177 W · 2,297 L | -175.6wins | -0.05per pick | 39cpaid | -28.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4bcb…634fbacked Yes | 73c | 19.45$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.12 | 215 | 47.4%102 W · 113 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x86d3…da78backed Yes | 59c | 19.39$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.54 | 265 | 33.2%88 W · 177 L | +13.9wins | +0.05per pick | 28cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8971…809dbacked No | 63c | 18.57$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.87 | 1,959 | 46%901 W · 1,058 L | -51.3wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6a8d…50f9backed No | 71c | 17.24$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5 | 9,799 | 44.6%4,367 W · 5,432 L | +256.4wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x63ac…3fc9backed No | 69c | 15$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.65 | 83 | 66.3%55 W · 28 L | +3.1wins | +0.04per pick | 63cpaid | +7.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 10°C on April 24?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 11°C on April 24?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 12°C on April 24?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 13°C or higher on April 24?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 8°C on April 24?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 9°C on April 24?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.