Tennis · resolved market
Tigre: Alvaro Guillen Meza vs Juan Pablo Varillas
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x44a2694aa9ed3eac9d6253f52fc083207cfd7f4403df7e0dd49e2cec520659f3
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Mezaof Meza, Varillas
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Tennisevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $22,276
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $23,820
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $22,276 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 35 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tennis is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Tennis | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xe911…3d4ebacked Meza | 33c | 5,187$1,722 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,465.19 | 4,426 | 51.8%2,291 W · 2,135 L | +136.7wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xee61…debfbacked Varillas | 55c | 4,420$2,420 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,419.9 | 2,865 | 44.3%1,269 W · 1,596 L | +6.0wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | -20.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x972b…78babacked Varillas | 45c | 1,318$597 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$597.01 | 2,982 | 39.1%1,167 W · 1,815 L | -109.1wins | -0.04per pick | 43cpaid | -30.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Meza | 75c | 1,112$831 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$281.06 | 8,217 | 45.5%3,737 W · 4,480 L | +166.6wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -16.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2755…fef0backed Varillas | 32c | 937.5$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$300 | 226 | 34.5%78 W · 148 L | -2.2wins | -0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -10.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8c7c…1439backed Varillas | 3c | 870.7$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.79 | 29 | 20.7%6 W · 23 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 21cpaid | +12%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Varillas | 3c | 840.59$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.91 | 2,331 | 7.9%183 W · 2,148 L | -56.9wins | -0.02per pick | 10cpaid | -60.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe6f0…5701backed Meza | 30c | 778.29$232 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$545.9 | 186 | 44.6%83 W · 103 L | +1.5wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd6a3…9489backed Varillas | 42c | 731.32$306 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$305.86 | 2,746 | 30.8%846 W · 1,900 L | -67.1wins | -0.02per pick | 33cpaid | -36.1%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5f19…ec51backed Meza | 62c | 691$426 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$265.22 | 95 | 41.1%39 W · 56 L | -7.1wins | -0.07per pick | 49cpaid | -36%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe54d…fdecbacked Meza | 72c | 423$303 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$120.22 | 465 | 51.2%238 W · 227 L | -23.3wins | -0.05per pick | 56cpaid | -11.9%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8816…7738backed Varillas | 30c | 333.57$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 1,106 | 50.3%556 W · 550 L | -21.2wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xec6c…23c7backed Meza | 45c | 325$147 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$177.59 | 156 | 48.7%76 W · 80 L | +7.2wins | +0.05per pick | 44cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa509…ae46backed Varillas | 45c | 250.91$112 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$111.86 | 6,786 | 48.8%3,310 W · 3,476 L | +56.2wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -15.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2ca3…0a58backed Varillas | 26c | 192.3$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 26 | 42.3%11 W · 15 L | -3.2wins | -0.12per pick | 55cpaid | -34.8%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6aad…20aebacked Meza | 64c | 157.14$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$57.14 | 524 | 60.9%319 W · 205 L | +0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 61cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5661…6323backed Varillas | 66c | 107.41$71 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70.8 | 102 | 67.6%69 W · 33 L | +1.3wins | +0.01per pick | 66cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa4bd…e8a2backed Meza | 44c | 104.13$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58.18 | 884 | 55%486 W · 398 L | +37.4wins | +0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x58e4…73f9backed Meza | 53c | 81.48$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.9 | 307 | 41.7%128 W · 179 L | -1.4wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | -6.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb906…2a75backed Meza | 59c | 80.11$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.85 | 407 | 44%179 W · 228 L | -14.8wins | -0.04per pick | 48cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbf14…5d95backed Varillas | 20c | 72.33$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.16 | 38 | 21.1%8 W · 30 L | +0.9wins | +0.02per pick | 19cpaid | -40.4%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6e25…db26backed Meza | 69c | 63.3$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.62 | 825 | 60.5%499 W · 326 L | -11.2wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa6be…b977backed Varillas | 50c | 60$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.7 | 1,768 | 43.2%764 W · 1,004 L | +2.9wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9baa…db0dbacked Varillas | 41c | 56.1$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23 | 29 | 65.5%19 W · 10 L | +0.5wins | +0.02per pick | 64cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd37a…2358backed Varillas | 41c | 55.82$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.82 | 1,973 | 46.3%914 W · 1,059 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe8ca…cccbbacked Meza | 45c | 55$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.25 | 123 | 54.5%67 W · 56 L | +13.3wins | +0.11per pick | 44cpaid | +43.9%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xf102…1348backed Varillas | 55c | 55$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.25 | 1,489 | 32.6%486 W · 1,003 L | +22.2wins | +0.01per pick | 31cpaid | +6.4%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa07d…a037backed Varillas | 27c | 52.99$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.51 | 3,270 | 13.8%450 W · 2,820 L | -549.1wins | -0.17per pick | 31cpaid | -57.4%equal weight | 31-0.17 edge/pick |
| 0x8eb7…d529backed Meza | 43c | 51.23$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.21 | 195 | 50.8%99 W · 96 L | -3.9wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x00cf…d102backed Varillas | 42c | 50$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21 | 160 | 44.4%71 W · 89 L | -5.9wins | -0.04per pick | 48cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9f6d…bfc5backed Meza | 56c | 47.8$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.86 | 311 | 53.1%165 W · 146 L | -2.3wins | -0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3f34…ed6abacked Meza | 34c | 30$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.9 | 397 | 51.4%204 W · 193 L | +4.4wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb846…b8d0backed Meza | 60c | 21.98$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.72 | 69 | 52.2%36 W · 33 L | -1.9wins | -0.03per pick | 55cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0f85…87d5backed Meza | 76c | 19.08$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.52 | 115 | 47%54 W · 61 L | +1.3wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xde9f…d43cbacked Meza | 75c | 14.96$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.7 | 6,599 | 50.7%3,343 W · 3,256 L | +259.7wins | +0.04per pick | 47cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tennis and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.