Asian League · resolved market
Kyōto Sanga FC vs. Gamba Ōsaka: O/U 2.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x44bbe8424996bfffaf90697b6c3e013831873a3f7c64e8a784a5e3edeec7cfd6
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Asian Leagueevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $10,797
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $10,877
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $10,797 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 44 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Asian League is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Asian League | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Under | 59c | 2,963$1,761 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,201.92 | 5,946 | 46.1%2,743 W · 3,203 L | +50.5wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -6.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x09f4…dac0backed Under | 49c | 2,406$1,179 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,227.24 | 14 | 64.3%9 W · 5 L | +2.6wins | +0.19per pick | 45cpaid | +37.2%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x76e4…febcbacked Over | 50c | 1,800$900 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$900 | 40 | 35%14 W · 26 L | -3.3wins | -0.08per pick | 43cpaid | -21.2%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0def…4ddbbacked Over | 45c | 1,500$675 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$675 | 62 | 48.4%30 W · 32 L | -1.1wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd81f…6b75backed Over | 52c | 1,193$622 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$622.29 | 399 | 54.6%218 W · 181 L | +16.5wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xadfb…c2efbacked Over | 53c | 968.29$510 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$510.25 | 1,110 | 49.5%549 W · 561 L | +1.9wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf070…57b8backed Over | 21c | 958.26$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 55 | 32.7%18 W · 37 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 34cpaid | -16.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8314…0f1ebacked Under | 46c | 499.96$230 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$269.98 | 122 | 50%61 W · 61 L | -1.2wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x325f…4511backed Over | 3c | 388.4$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.68 | 1,063 | 42%446 W · 617 L | -12.6wins | -0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -10.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5028…91c5backed Under | 42c | 328.14$138 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$190.57 | 151 | 33.8%51 W · 100 L | +3.4wins | +0.02per pick | 32cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5af4…183cbacked Under | 49c | 281.63$138 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$143.63 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.16per pick | 49cpaid | -32%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x77bc…b91bbacked Under | 53c | 258.8$138 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$120.88 | 1,356 | 45.5%617 W · 739 L | +15.0wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -13.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd01c…7f9dbacked Under | 50c | 250$125 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$125 | 934 | 46.1%431 W · 503 L | +6.7wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1f62…76f6backed Under | 50c | 250$125 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$125 | 1,117 | 46.2%516 W · 601 L | -7.8wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdebb…eedbbacked Under | 47c | 231$109 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$122.43 | 36 | 52.8%19 W · 17 L | +0.6wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +15%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xceee…d39ebacked Over | 51c | 183.18$94 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$94.03 | 148 | 48%71 W · 77 L | +3.1wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc2fb…610cbacked Under | 50c | 167.42$84 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$83.71 | 39 | 51.3%20 W · 19 L | -0.9wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc1c3…c2e6backed Over | 61c | 163.39$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.61per pick | 61cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3b5f…7b99backed Over | 40c | 110$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44 | 185 | 43.8%81 W · 104 L | -2.8wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x34fa…f491backed Over | 53c | 100$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53 | 48 | 62.5%30 W · 18 L | +6.0wins | +0.13per pick | 50cpaid | +24.9%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x2fcb…78cfbacked Over | 51c | 100$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51 | 60 | 60%36 W · 24 L | +5.8wins | +0.10per pick | 50cpaid | +18.4%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x3982…2befbacked Over | 53c | 77.3$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.04 | 345 | 58.6%202 W · 143 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 59cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc75b…3ea7backed Over | 53c | 70.3$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.26 | 282 | 53.5%151 W · 131 L | +2.4wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8a3d…316cbacked Under | 46c | 66$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.64 | 143 | 51.7%74 W · 69 L | +4.0wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +5.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2c46…dac9backed Over | 25c | 60.6$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.42 | 770 | 56.2%433 W · 337 L | +40.8wins | +0.05per pick | 51cpaid | +10.7%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x06ec…c30fbacked Over | 46c | 58.28$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.81 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -1.7wins | -0.43per pick | 43cpaid | -100%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa24f…7c58backed Over | 51c | 54.59$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.99 | 62 | 56.5%35 W · 27 L | -1.8wins | -0.03per pick | 59cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x200f…7a96backed Over | 56c | 53.93$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.41 | 1,970 | 54.4%1,071 W · 899 L | +32.9wins | +0.02per pick | 53cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf504…132ebacked Under | 48c | 52.08$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.08 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x718d…2b46backed Under | 58c | 51.72$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.72 | 58 | 70.7%41 W · 17 L | +8.2wins | +0.14per pick | 57cpaid | +21.6%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x7113…dba4backed Over | 50c | 50.3$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 186 | 46.2%86 W · 100 L | -1.1wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x35d1…1f70backed Under | 46c | 42.27$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.8 | 208 | 60.1%125 W · 83 L | +7.0wins | +0.03per pick | 57cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x84ad…bfb7backed Under | 55c | 40$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.05 | 1,522 | 54.9%835 W · 687 L | +5.9wins | 0.00per pick | 54cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x21db…2a42backed Over | 50c | 40$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 115 | 43.5%50 W · 65 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0d20…f812backed Over | 54c | 37.04$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 88 | 34.1%30 W · 58 L | -8.2wins | -0.09per pick | 43cpaid | -19.5%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xf1e0…041bbacked Under | 46c | 37.04$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20 | 182 | 56%102 W · 80 L | +1.4wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa975…42eebacked Under | 43c | 35.51$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.24 | 95 | 54.7%52 W · 43 L | -1.4wins | -0.01per pick | 56cpaid | +6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd320…8c35backed Under | 43c | 33.69$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.2 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.57per pick | 43cpaid | +132.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x948b…a188backed Over | 53c | 31.18$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.52 | 478 | 60.3%288 W · 190 L | +15.2wins | +0.03per pick | 57cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf245…746bbacked Over | 49c | 30$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.6 | 29 | 48.3%14 W · 15 L | -3.2wins | -0.11per pick | 59cpaid | -21.1%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1a29…16c5backed Over | 54c | 27.78$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 112 | 43.8%49 W · 63 L | -2.1wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5495…fc8cbacked Under | 76c | 26.32$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.32 | 7 | 71.4%5 W · 2 L | +0.2wins | +0.03per pick | 69cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf46b…c51dbacked Over | 53c | 22.18$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.78 | 325 | 60.3%196 W · 129 L | +20.0wins | +0.06per pick | 54cpaid | +10.5%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x49c4…db5bbacked Over | 54c | 18.52$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 13 | 38.5%5 W · 8 L | +0.3wins | +0.02per pick | 36cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Asian League and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Kyōto Sanga FC vs. Gamba Ōsaka: O/U 2.5this page
- Kyōto Sanga FC vs. Gamba Ōsaka: Both Teams to ScoreYes won
- Kyōto Sanga FC vs. Gamba Ōsaka: O/U 1.5Over won
- Kyōto Sanga FC vs. Gamba Ōsaka: O/U 3.5Under won
- Spread: Kyōto Sanga FC (-1.5)Gamba Ōsaka won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.