South American Leagues · resolved market
CD Guadalajara vs. FC Juárez: O/U 0.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x44c9c0055b0de8f664ce42869d994ad8959f67df8cb2f3d8fb6f3b2acfc100ef
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- South American Leaguesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $19,671
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $20,964
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $19,671 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 27 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in South American Leagues is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in South American Leagues | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x0346…52a5backed Under | 16c | 1,859$295 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$295.25 | 2,281 | 34.3%782 W · 1,499 L | -30.5wins | -0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -16.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x07ea…a6babacked Over | 62c | 1,616$1,000 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$616.17 | 32 | 34.4%11 W · 21 L | -5.2wins | -0.16per pick | 51cpaid | -47.1%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xddc3…029cbacked Over | 56c | 1,500$841 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$658.5 | 15 | 33.3%5 W · 10 L | -1.6wins | -0.10per pick | 44cpaid | -41.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Under | 38c | 1,084$415 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$415.38 | 5,757 | 45.4%2,611 W · 3,146 L | +94.0wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x39f6…abe1backed Over | 54c | 1,082$585 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$496.99 | 108 | 75%81 W · 27 L | +16.6wins | +0.15per pick | 60cpaid | +25.9%equal weight | 64+0.13 edge/pick |
| 0x84cf…2f63backed Under | 46c | 1,019$468 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$467.53 | 289 | 40.1%116 W · 173 L | -6.9wins | -0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -14.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa425…a8bbbacked Under | 4c | 980.21$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.19 | 74 | 10.8%8 W · 66 L | +2.6wins | +0.03per pick | 7cpaid | +53.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdde9…4bd5backed Over | 77c | 600$462 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$138 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.23per pick | 77cpaid | +29.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb8c6…7b39backed Under | 6c | 553.69$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.67 | 210 | 44.3%93 W · 117 L | +3.7wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | +1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2ad5…62ffbacked Over | 41c | 353.23$146 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$207.67 | 268 | 35.1%94 W · 174 L | -12.9wins | -0.05per pick | 40cpaid | -24.3%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x13f7…85d5backed Under | 4c | 299.99$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 197 | 11.2%22 W · 175 L | -3.6wins | -0.02per pick | 13cpaid | -2.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc7d0…1f8abacked Under | 26c | 254$67 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66.88 | 184 | 26.1%48 W · 136 L | -0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 26cpaid | -8.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3bf5…2307backed Under | 77c | 153.2$118 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$118.34 | 86 | 57%49 W · 37 L | +0.8wins | +0.01per pick | 56cpaid | +29%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf423…31c4backed Under | 39c | 117.87$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.49 | 50 | 54%27 W · 23 L | +1.9wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | +9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Under | 29c | 103.35$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.99 | 8,107 | 48.7%3,948 W · 4,159 L | +26.8wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x97b2…1c44backed Over | 50c | 100$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50 | 47 | 57.4%27 W · 20 L | +4.4wins | +0.09per pick | 48cpaid | +22%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc291…5d74backed Over | 54c | 100$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46 | 3,749 | 38.2%1,431 W · 2,318 L | -33.3wins | -0.01per pick | 39cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2a69…d2f7backed Under | 50c | 90.14$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.07 | 2,514 | 39%980 W · 1,534 L | -32.2wins | -0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -14%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe337…4ad6backed Under | 41c | 80.76$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.41 | 191 | 55.5%106 W · 85 L | +6.4wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7f14…29d1backed Under | 36c | 75.87$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.47 | 39 | 35.9%14 W · 25 L | -2.2wins | -0.06per pick | 41cpaid | -10%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2f26…0d8fbacked Over | 64c | 60$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.6 | 448 | 43.8%196 W · 252 L | +11.4wins | +0.03per pick | 41cpaid | -12.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8543…ff1bbacked Under | 47c | 47.73$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.36 | 147 | 53.7%79 W · 68 L | +2.8wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x91c7…808fbacked Over | 78c | 39.15$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.65 | 22 | 68.2%15 W · 7 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 70cpaid | -2.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcb11…9845backed Under | 41c | 35.09$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.34 | 12 | 41.7%5 W · 7 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -29.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1a97…90b1backed Over | 58c | 34.44$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.6 | 42 | 52.4%22 W · 20 L | -3.0wins | -0.07per pick | 60cpaid | -14.7%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xbf20…1881backed Under | 41c | 32.48$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.42 | 16 | 31.3%5 W · 11 L | -2.8wins | -0.18per pick | 49cpaid | -49.8%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x5d63…9075backed Over | 77c | 25.16$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.77 | 951 | 55.8%531 W · 420 L | +31.5wins | +0.03per pick | 53cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in South American Leagues and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 13 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- CD Guadalajara vs. FC Juárez: O/U 0.5this page
- CD Guadalajara vs. FC Juárez: 1st Half O/U 0.5Under won
- CD Guadalajara vs. FC Juárez: Both Teams to ScoreNo won
- CD Guadalajara vs. FC Juárez: CD Guadalajara O/U 0.5Over won
- CD Guadalajara vs. FC Juárez: O/U 1.5Under won
- CD Guadalajara vs. FC Juárez: O/U 2.5Under won
- CD Guadalajara vs. FC Juárez: O/U 3.5Under won
- CD Guadalajara vs. FC Juárez: O/U 4.5Under won
- CD Guadalajara vs. FC Juárez: O/U 5.5Under won
- Spread: CD Guadalajara (-1.5)FC Juárez won
- Spread: CD Guadalajara (-2.5)FC Juárez won
- Spread: FC Juárez (-1.5)CD Guadalajara won
- Spread: FC Juárez (-2.5)CD Guadalajara won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.