South American Leagues · resolved market
CD Guadalajara vs. FC Juárez: O/U 3.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x3df74a6c2ce627e51a65ded15262a6333e58443c7321328d95b9277954156574
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- South American Leaguesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $74,846
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $75,745
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $74,846 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a prediction-market account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 54 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in South American Leagues is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet's whole record in South American Leagues | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x04d5…66d8backed Under | 61c | 59,730$36,220 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23,510.61 | 58 | 51.7%30 W · 28 L | +2.3wins | +0.04per pick | 48cpaid | +9.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Over | 37c | 10,599$3,900 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,899.66 | 5,831 | 45.4%2,647 W · 3,184 L | +99.3wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe6bf…8380backed Over | 40c | 10,000$4,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,000 | 25 | 44%11 W · 14 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2a69…d2f7backed Over | 39c | 8,580$3,346 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,346.06 | 2,608 | 39.3%1,024 W · 1,584 L | -29.9wins | -0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -13.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1a66…ae5ebacked Over | 40c | 7,500$3,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,000 | 43 | 51.2%22 W · 21 L | +1.0wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Over | 28c | 4,665$1,327 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,327.09 | 8,175 | 48.7%3,980 W · 4,195 L | +27.3wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0346…52a5backed Over | 28c | 3,941$1,095 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,095.48 | 2,376 | 34.7%824 W · 1,552 L | -27.5wins | -0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -14.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3f3a…e8fdbacked Over | 39c | 3,916$1,527 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,527.4 | 205 | 53.2%109 W · 96 L | +12.9wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | +22.9%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x379a…5122backed Over | 39c | 2,933$1,144 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,144 | 41 | 43.9%18 W · 23 L | -2.2wins | -0.05per pick | 49cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4f29…7a7ebacked Over | 31c | 2,655$816 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$815.66 | 752 | 40.8%307 W · 445 L | -17.0wins | -0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -13.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2d6a…8addbacked Over | 40c | 2,500$988 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$987.5 | 1,261 | 53.6%676 W · 585 L | +11.6wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf531…121cbacked Over | 39c | 769.79$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$300 | 22 | 50%11 W · 11 L | -0.5wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x789c…0d10backed Over | 39c | 747.08$291 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$291.36 | 552 | 50.2%277 W · 275 L | +1.0wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x36b3…e421backed Over | 39c | 699.33$273 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$272.74 | 173 | 52%90 W · 83 L | +4.6wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf636…5465backed Over | 39c | 559.74$218 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$218.3 | 44 | 56.8%25 W · 19 L | +2.1wins | +0.05per pick | 52cpaid | +9.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xeddf…a953backed Over | 41c | 487.8$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 73 | 32.9%24 W · 49 L | -5.0wins | -0.07per pick | 40cpaid | -18.3%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x57cc…0fa7backed Over | 39c | 448$173 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$173.02 | 70 | 28.6%20 W · 50 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -27.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3555…208ebacked Under | 62c | 402.56$250 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$152.97 | 75 | 64%48 W · 27 L | +2.2wins | +0.03per pick | 61cpaid | +7.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa3b5…941abacked Under | 62c | 300$186 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$114 | 23 | 60.9%14 W · 9 L | +2.4wins | +0.11per pick | 50cpaid | +23.7%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xdc41…dd7ebacked Over | 39c | 240$94 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$93.6 | 519 | 35.5%184 W · 335 L | -4.3wins | -0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4836…859bbacked Over | 38c | 200$77 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$76.78 | 146 | 43.2%63 W · 83 L | -9.8wins | -0.07per pick | 50cpaid | -12.8%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x8543…ff1bbacked Over | 39c | 195.89$77 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$76.55 | 147 | 53.7%79 W · 68 L | +2.8wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0844…f46abacked Over | 38c | 194.48$74 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$73.9 | 45 | 33.3%15 W · 30 L | -5.7wins | -0.13per pick | 46cpaid | -29.3%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x04a7…164bbacked Under | 62c | 170$105 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$64.6 | 42 | 57.1%24 W · 18 L | +3.5wins | +0.08per pick | 49cpaid | +13%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8f45…e6a7backed Under | 62c | 160$99 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60.8 | 20 | 50%10 W · 10 L | +1.9wins | +0.10per pick | 40cpaid | +50.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x50e5…e39fbacked Over | 39c | 157$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61.23 | 742 | 58.5%434 W · 308 L | +29.1wins | +0.04per pick | 55cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x84cf…2f63backed Under | 66c | 156.64$103 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.76 | 292 | 40.1%117 W · 175 L | -6.9wins | -0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -13.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9cb4…8285backed Over | 39c | 150.55$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.71 | 288 | 55.2%159 W · 129 L | +4.1wins | +0.01per pick | 54cpaid | +4.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xca89…7bc4backed Over | 38c | 144$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.72 | 198 | 59.6%118 W · 80 L | +7.7wins | +0.04per pick | 56cpaid | +7.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe84f…b777backed Over | 39c | 139.32$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.37 | 701 | 53.2%373 W · 328 L | +6.8wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -4.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf7f0…912cbacked Over | 40c | 128$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.2 | 182 | 51.1%93 W · 89 L | -0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -5.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1010…d793backed Under | 62c | 120$74 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.6 | 253 | 45.1%114 W · 139 L | -6.6wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x83d9…10d9backed Over | 39c | 87.09$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.99 | 156 | 51.9%81 W · 75 L | +2.1wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd577…c012backed Under | 62c | 78.12$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.69 | 54 | 55.6%30 W · 24 L | +0.7wins | +0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdf15…a1febacked Under | 62c | 78.12$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.69 | 99 | 59.6%59 W · 40 L | +3.9wins | +0.04per pick | 56cpaid | +8.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x84d4…77a9backed Under | 62c | 78.07$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.66 | 331 | 52.6%174 W · 157 L | +8.3wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5981…3934backed Over | 41c | 71.8$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.44 | 151 | 41.1%62 W · 89 L | +2.0wins | +0.01per pick | 40cpaid | +7.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0fce…63d5backed Over | 39c | 69.21$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.99 | 90 | 54.4%49 W · 41 L | -1.5wins | -0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2713…43b2backed Under | 62c | 64.52$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.52 | 13 | 30.8%4 W · 9 L | -1.9wins | -0.15per pick | 46cpaid | -43%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe5b1…30b2backed Over | 39c | 64$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.96 | 164 | 53.7%88 W · 76 L | +3.3wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +4.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5929…4684backed Over | 40c | 59.79$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.92 | 409 | 51.1%209 W · 200 L | -13.8wins | -0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x52d9…fb1abacked Over | 40c | 57.15$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.86 | 1,511 | 46.1%697 W · 814 L | -15.1wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x40d0…4415backed Over | 38c | 54$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.52 | 127 | 57.5%73 W · 54 L | +1.6wins | +0.01per pick | 56cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1e4b…0a04backed Over | 39c | 53.62$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.91 | 47 | 57.4%27 W · 20 L | +2.8wins | +0.06per pick | 51cpaid | +17.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5b6e…f544backed Over | 39c | 47.54$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.54 | 646 | 33.1%214 W · 432 L | -24.8wins | -0.04per pick | 37cpaid | -19.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7ea7…078bbacked Over | 39c | 38.46$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 14 | 42.9%6 W · 8 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | +59.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa71d…9854backed Under | 62c | 31.25$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.88 | 44 | 63.6%28 W · 16 L | +3.4wins | +0.08per pick | 56cpaid | +12.1%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc972…98b6backed Under | 62c | 31.25$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.88 | 15 | 60%9 W · 6 L | +0.8wins | +0.05per pick | 55cpaid | +8.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0f25…e9a5backed Over | 39c | 30.08$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.73 | 36 | 47.2%17 W · 19 L | -2.5wins | -0.07per pick | 54cpaid | -16%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x947d…dff0backed Under | 62c | 29.68$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.28 | 45 | 57.8%26 W · 19 L | +1.6wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +4.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe907…cff6backed Over | 39c | 27.34$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.66 | 1,489 | 37.4%557 W · 932 L | +5.0wins | 0.00per pick | 37cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7218…ea41backed Under | 62c | 21.86$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.31 | 33 | 66.7%22 W · 11 L | +3.5wins | +0.11per pick | 56cpaid | +17.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x824b…da12backed Under | 62c | 21$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.98 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.05per pick | 70cpaid | +10.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6d3c…d294backed Under | 61c | 20.56$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.02 | 2,015 | 51.4%1,036 W · 979 L | +44.3wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in South American Leagues and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 13 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- CD Guadalajara vs. FC Juárez: O/U 3.5this page
- CD Guadalajara vs. FC Juárez: 1st Half O/U 0.5Under won
- CD Guadalajara vs. FC Juárez: Both Teams to ScoreNo won
- CD Guadalajara vs. FC Juárez: CD Guadalajara O/U 0.5Over won
- CD Guadalajara vs. FC Juárez: O/U 0.5Over won
- CD Guadalajara vs. FC Juárez: O/U 1.5Under won
- CD Guadalajara vs. FC Juárez: O/U 2.5Under won
- CD Guadalajara vs. FC Juárez: O/U 4.5Under won
- CD Guadalajara vs. FC Juárez: O/U 5.5Under won
- Spread: CD Guadalajara (-1.5)FC Juárez won
- Spread: CD Guadalajara (-2.5)FC Juárez won
- Spread: FC Juárez (-1.5)CD Guadalajara won
- Spread: FC Juárez (-2.5)CD Guadalajara won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.