South American Leagues · resolved market
CD Guadalajara vs. FC Juárez: O/U 1.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x3fb1bcef458d77c368e14791ae1f4f583e5a23f7dbef70ea08bda25ff16e127d
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- South American Leaguesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $33,374
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $34,513
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $33,374 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 34 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in South American Leagues is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in South American Leagues | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x06e1…b7d4backed Over | 0c | 17,491$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.49 | 18 | 22.2%4 W · 14 L | -1.6wins | -0.09per pick | 31cpaid | -42.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Under | 40c | 4,444$1,772 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,672.06 | 8,107 | 48.7%3,948 W · 4,159 L | +26.8wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdb83…1e50backed Over | 56c | 3,552$1,989 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,988.86 | 1,302 | 50.2%653 W · 649 L | -13.6wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Over | 37c | 1,746$642 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$642.28 | 5,757 | 45.4%2,611 W · 3,146 L | +94.0wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xddc3…029cbacked Over | 20c | 1,234$247 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$246.8 | 15 | 33.3%5 W · 10 L | -1.6wins | -0.10per pick | 44cpaid | -41.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0346…52a5backed Under | 57c | 1,084$622 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$461.7 | 2,281 | 34.3%782 W · 1,499 L | -30.5wins | -0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -16.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3740…a935backed Under | 80c | 1,000$800 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$200 | 103 | 64.1%66 W · 37 L | -4.8wins | -0.05per pick | 69cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9245…c593backed Over | 57c | 919.19$524 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$523.94 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.10per pick | 60cpaid | -24.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd239…2083backed Under | 44c | 886.36$390 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$496.36 | 42 | 52.4%22 W · 20 L | +2.3wins | +0.05per pick | 47cpaid | +12.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x789c…0d10backed Under | 44c | 190.27$84 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$106.55 | 552 | 50.2%277 W · 275 L | +1.0wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2d67…3667backed Over | 38c | 171.03$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65.61 | 464 | 49.6%230 W · 234 L | -0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5d63…9075backed Under | 40c | 121.24$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$73.31 | 951 | 55.8%531 W · 420 L | +31.5wins | +0.03per pick | 53cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8d93…b34dbacked Over | 60c | 100$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 84 | 52.4%44 W · 40 L | +4.4wins | +0.05per pick | 47cpaid | +17%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x50e5…e39fbacked Under | 44c | 97$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54.32 | 720 | 58.8%423 W · 297 L | +29.5wins | +0.04per pick | 55cpaid | +3.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8543…ff1bbacked Under | 25c | 87.19$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$65.17 | 147 | 53.7%79 W · 68 L | +2.8wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x13f7…85d5backed Under | 17c | 83.83$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$69.23 | 197 | 11.2%22 W · 175 L | -3.6wins | -0.02per pick | 13cpaid | -2.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x775d…6bebbacked Over | 51c | 75$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.5 | 485 | 47.6%231 W · 254 L | +6.8wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc243…5e94backed Under | 44c | 65.02$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.41 | 35 | 45.7%16 W · 19 L | -0.6wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x22da…2866backed Under | 45c | 61.8$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.83 | 630 | 61.3%386 W · 244 L | +22.3wins | +0.04per pick | 58cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5b6e…f544backed Under | 44c | 56.82$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.82 | 646 | 33.1%214 W · 432 L | -24.8wins | -0.04per pick | 37cpaid | -19.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x77bc…b91bbacked Over | 19c | 56.75$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.85 | 2,170 | 43.7%948 W · 1,222 L | -53.8wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -19.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x629d…756cbacked Over | 56c | 50$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28 | 506 | 43.9%222 W · 284 L | -4.5wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -14.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xddb6…b9b3backed Over | 51c | 50$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.67 | 519 | 45.7%237 W · 282 L | -3.9wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -15.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x67af…61eebacked Under | 62c | 50$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.25 | 896 | 45.4%407 W · 489 L | -23.0wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -19.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5998…b5a8backed Over | 48c | 41.45$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.86 | 69 | 55.1%38 W · 31 L | +6.0wins | +0.09per pick | 46cpaid | +14.7%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xfd04…c5e1backed Under | 80c | 36.76$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.35 | 24 | 87.5%21 W · 3 L | +2.7wins | +0.11per pick | 76cpaid | +16.2%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2ad5…62ffbacked Over | 49c | 36.6$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.93 | 268 | 35.1%94 W · 174 L | -12.9wins | -0.05per pick | 40cpaid | -24.3%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbe0a…b267backed Over | 56c | 33.96$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.02 | 25 | 64%16 W · 9 L | +1.4wins | +0.06per pick | 58cpaid | +13.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa146…6163backed Over | 61c | 32.87$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 40 | 52.5%21 W · 19 L | +2.8wins | +0.07per pick | 46cpaid | +29.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8935…7daabacked Over | 60c | 32.13$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.38 | 675 | 48%324 W · 351 L | -18.6wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -12.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4732…f40dbacked Under | 47c | 31.77$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.89 | 155 | 52.3%81 W · 74 L | +9.7wins | +0.06per pick | 46cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6770…c3bdbacked Under | 58c | 30$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.6 | 45 | 42.2%19 W · 26 L | -3.6wins | -0.08per pick | 50cpaid | -12.7%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe8e0…7eecbacked Over | 56c | 25$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 350 | 46.3%162 W · 188 L | -6.6wins | -0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -15.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x07ea…a6babacked Over | 64c | 20$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.7 | 32 | 34.4%11 W · 21 L | -5.2wins | -0.16per pick | 51cpaid | -47.1%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in South American Leagues and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 13 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- CD Guadalajara vs. FC Juárez: O/U 1.5this page
- CD Guadalajara vs. FC Juárez: 1st Half O/U 0.5Under won
- CD Guadalajara vs. FC Juárez: Both Teams to ScoreNo won
- CD Guadalajara vs. FC Juárez: CD Guadalajara O/U 0.5Over won
- CD Guadalajara vs. FC Juárez: O/U 0.5Over won
- CD Guadalajara vs. FC Juárez: O/U 2.5Under won
- CD Guadalajara vs. FC Juárez: O/U 3.5Under won
- CD Guadalajara vs. FC Juárez: O/U 4.5Under won
- CD Guadalajara vs. FC Juárez: O/U 5.5Under won
- Spread: CD Guadalajara (-1.5)FC Juárez won
- Spread: CD Guadalajara (-2.5)FC Juárez won
- Spread: FC Juárez (-1.5)CD Guadalajara won
- Spread: FC Juárez (-2.5)CD Guadalajara won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.