MLB · resolved market
Atlanta Braves vs. Tampa Bay Rays
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x44ca0dd7b711d6e862b4c02b0ff0a290f1cfba7d89079af79f2b6023abb0741f
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Tampa Bay Raysof Atlanta Braves, Tampa Bay Rays
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $17,360
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $17,719
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $17,360 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 22 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x9a8c…ba13backed Atlanta Braves | 54c | 12,056$6,504 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$6,504.21 | 158 | 51.9%82 W · 76 L | -12.5wins | -0.08per pick | 60cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xa6a8…5009backed Tampa Bay Rays | 46c | 9,804$4,510 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5,294.13 | 2,274 | 43.2%983 W · 1,291 L | +43.8wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8511…4a6bbacked Tampa Bay Rays | 56c | 1,115$624 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$490.6 | 436 | 54.8%239 W · 197 L | +8.6wins | +0.02per pick | 53cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe401…7b88backed Tampa Bay Rays | 47c | 410.89$194 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$216.54 | 9,728 | 46.3%4,506 W · 5,222 L | +32.8wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5530…d38dbacked Tampa Bay Rays | 56c | 300$168 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$132 | 2,203 | 50.3%1,108 W · 1,095 L | +29.6wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x29c0…efaabacked Atlanta Braves | 44c | 294$129 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$129.36 | 1,212 | 52.1%631 W · 581 L | +21.3wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd55c…34febacked Tampa Bay Rays | 55c | 292.98$161 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$131.84 | 376 | 49.5%186 W · 190 L | +9.4wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8b7e…6a9fbacked Atlanta Braves | 44c | 227.27$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 2,033 | 52.4%1,066 W · 967 L | -35.5wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd33b…4e00backed Atlanta Braves | 45c | 222.22$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 98 | 54.1%53 W · 45 L | +8.4wins | +0.09per pick | 46cpaid | +15.4%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xc8b4…f05dbacked Atlanta Braves | 44c | 210$92 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$92.4 | 418 | 50%209 W · 209 L | +6.4wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x24df…e8b2backed Atlanta Braves | 43c | 204.62$88 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$87.99 | 1,203 | 44.2%532 W · 671 L | +20.5wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x89c9…9534backed Tampa Bay Rays | 57c | 176$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$75.68 | 917 | 49.9%458 W · 459 L | -3.3wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdc4b…5a92backed Atlanta Braves | 44c | 113.64$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 2,267 | 53.3%1,208 W · 1,059 L | -12.4wins | -0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf339…e010backed Atlanta Braves | 57c | 100$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57 | 61 | 50.8%31 W · 30 L | +0.7wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9584…380bbacked Atlanta Braves | 44c | 56.82$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 29 | 48.3%14 W · 15 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -4.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa337…9e54backed Atlanta Braves | 44c | 56.82$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 944 | 55.3%522 W · 422 L | -2.9wins | 0.00per pick | 56cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x224b…f6b8backed Tampa Bay Rays | 47c | 45$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.03 | 209 | 54.5%114 W · 95 L | +1.1wins | +0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6c75…154abacked Atlanta Braves | 44c | 36.86$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.22 | 68 | 60.3%41 W · 27 L | +6.2wins | +0.09per pick | 51cpaid | +17.6%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x0643…d46bbacked Tampa Bay Rays | 57c | 36.84$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.84 | 405 | 57.8%234 W · 171 L | +7.6wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1cbe…12bcbacked Tampa Bay Rays | 56c | 31$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.64 | 1,132 | 48.9%553 W · 579 L | -16.6wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd9a0…88eebacked Tampa Bay Rays | 51c | 30.61$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15 | 283 | 48.8%138 W · 145 L | +6.3wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0624…017dbacked Atlanta Braves | 49c | 30.61$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 266 | 51.1%136 W · 130 L | -16.0wins | -0.06per pick | 57cpaid | -11.9%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.