AI · resolved market
Will Shadowrocket be #1 Paid App in the US Apple App Store on March 20?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x44cac13c495d04a89fba8c7ea54dc8ce2a2184b11064c2cebf33f242965f4218
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- AIevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- Polymarket published no figure
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $10,291
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $10,291 — TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 18 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in AI is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in AI | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xd40a…9d84backed No | 39c | 349.64$137 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$137.49 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.39per pick | 39cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa7fe…1f3ebacked No | 10c | 287.96$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.76 | 55 | 23.6%13 W · 42 L | -2.5wins | -0.05per pick | 28cpaid | -48.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1c26…6e31backed No | 7c | 224.95$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.57 | 146 | 43.8%64 W · 82 L | -5.2wins | -0.04per pick | 47cpaid | -24.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdf40…38b8backed No | 6c | 200$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 86 | 50%43 W · 43 L | -1.4wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -12%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5028…91c5backed No | 14c | 136.19$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.39 | 47 | 14.9%7 W · 40 L | -2.8wins | -0.06per pick | 21cpaid | -69.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x86d1…59f9backed No | 19c | 106.84$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.19per pick | 31cpaid | +15%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed No | 11c | 106.78$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.11 | 191 | 20.9%40 W · 151 L | -20.8wins | -0.11per pick | 32cpaid | -57.1%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xbec5…1aeebacked Yes | 80c | 100$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.5 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -37.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x563a…f578backed No | 13c | 100$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 12 | 0%0 W · 12 L | -1.9wins | -0.16per pick | 16cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x564f…7026backed Yes | 60c | 100$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40 | 369 | 45.3%167 W · 202 L | +29.3wins | +0.08per pick | 37cpaid | +22.2%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xe13d…9465backed Yes | 51c | 100$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.07per pick | 57cpaid | -2%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed No | 15c | 70.1$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.52 | 479 | 38%182 W · 297 L | -11.3wins | -0.02per pick | 40cpaid | -22.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x86e2…18d2backed No | 35c | 56.69$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.8 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.35per pick | 35cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3865…fcbebacked No | 38c | 30.76$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.69 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | -1.5wins | -0.17per pick | 50cpaid | -18.7%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0093…be88backed Yes | 79c | 25.32$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.32 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | -0.9wins | -0.12per pick | 55cpaid | -43.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x99ba…6391backed Yes | 59c | 21.89$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.02 | 60 | 33.3%20 W · 40 L | -1.8wins | -0.03per pick | 36cpaid | -15.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2758…3176backed Yes | 79c | 20.29$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.26 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.23per pick | 77cpaid | +30.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x99f1…946cbacked Yes | 78c | 20$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.4 | 6 | 83.3%5 W · 1 L | +0.6wins | +0.10per pick | 73cpaid | +14.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in AI and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Shadowrocket be #1 Paid App in the US Apple App Store on March 20?this page
- Will HotSchedules be #1 Paid App in the US Apple App Store on March 20?No won
- Will RadarScope be #1 Paid App in the US Apple App Store on March 20?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.